NBA · resolved market
Raptors vs. Lakers: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1645ab696bc89b0f44814659d5d9a48328c12ed9455e01384eab23fd42e9062e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lakersof Raptors, Lakers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,550
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,603
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,550 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Raptors | 37c | 320.69$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.4 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7c…cbaabacked Lakers | 57c | 262.83$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.83 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Raptors | 43c | 244$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.92 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb53c…c76ebacked Lakers | 36c | 238.39$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.39 | 487 | 40.7%198 W · 289 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cfd…2818backed Raptors | 46c | 235.26$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Lakers | 50c | 163$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.5 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed Lakers | 54c | 158$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.68 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Lakers | 54c | 149$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.54 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Lakers | 51c | 140$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.6 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df1…2da7backed Lakers | 28c | 137.46$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.97 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Raptors | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 628 | 48.7%306 W · 322 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Lakers | 51c | 93$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.57 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1670…d6a2backed Raptors | 48c | 89$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.58 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Raptors | 59c | 78.8$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e66…921dbacked Lakers | 51c | 78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…dd64backed Lakers | 65c | 75.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -10.4wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Lakers | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 87 | 59.8%52 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95ba…51ebbacked Lakers | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9430…97cebacked Raptors | 46c | 57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Lakers | 49c | 49.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…3a8abacked Raptors | 52c | 47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf683…f2dfbacked Raptors | 46c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d19…8b58backed Raptors | 49c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72df…42f6backed Raptors | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddf6…9bd5backed Raptors | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd289…98b5backed Raptors | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4f…73a6backed Raptors | 49c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Lakers | 49c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2348…9d10backed Raptors | 46c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5192backed Raptors | 46c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50fc…ba9abacked Raptors | 52c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73c5…4997backed Raptors | 50c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…0dd0backed Lakers | 50c | 34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…4523backed Raptors | 49c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1e…21a1backed Lakers | 74c | 28.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48a9…0d53backed Lakers | 50c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38dc…4c5fbacked Raptors | 50c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc789…3907backed Raptors | 50c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd43a…f530backed Lakers | 48c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2c…38ccbacked Raptors | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2d…ffcebacked Raptors | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f57…6d41backed Raptors | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raptors vs. Lakers: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-0.5)Lakers won
- Immanuel Quickley: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Raptors vs. LakersLakers won
- Raptors vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 108.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Lakers: O/U 222.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Lakers: O/U 223.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Lakers: O/U 224.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Lakers: O/U 225.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Lakers: O/U 226.5Under won
- Spread: Lakers (-1.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-2.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-3.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.