NBA · resolved market
1H Spread: Lakers (-0.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5997ccae99908ff8d2ceacc260abcd743b9bc0dd7604ee94c3919190608dfe7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lakersof Lakers, Raptors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,411
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,411
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,411 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked Raptors | 50c | 141$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Lakers | 50c | 123$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 95 | 60%57 W · 38 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Lakers | 51c | 123$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.27 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…3a8abacked Raptors | 50c | 91$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…24adbacked Raptors | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed Raptors | 50c | 59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc368…0b4ebacked Raptors | 50c | 59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Lakers | 51c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4e…9b6fbacked Raptors | 50c | 53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Lakers | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa305…73c9backed Raptors | 50c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f57…6d41backed Raptors | 49c | 37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cce…ebfebacked Raptors | 49c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x152c…3b50backed Lakers | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…7ca5backed Lakers | 50c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d10…e17cbacked Lakers | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe9…a400backed Lakers | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6098…d746backed Raptors | 50c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -9.8wins | -0.35per pick | 49cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x88d0…524cbacked Lakers | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…ae85backed Raptors | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07a4…be3abacked Lakers | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6132…7665backed Raptors | 50c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc07…e9f2backed Lakers | 50c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bd…8deabacked Lakers | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa46…1559backed Lakers | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-0.5)this page
- Immanuel Quickley: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Raptors vs. LakersLakers won
- Raptors vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Raptors vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 108.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Lakers: O/U 222.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Lakers: O/U 223.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Lakers: O/U 224.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Lakers: O/U 225.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Lakers: O/U 226.5Under won
- Spread: Lakers (-1.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-2.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-3.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.