NBA · resolved market
Spread: Lakers (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd0af1d350a10d894596ecbd2d3bd6cc9f0f75ee850206537d0b6848bdd241da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lakersof Lakers, Raptors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $149,317
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $149,568
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $149,317 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked Raptors | 54c | 130,981$70,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70,729.51 | 871 | 44.7%389 W · 482 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf42…d698backed Lakers | 46c | 118,000$54,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63,720 | 170 | 31.8%54 W · 116 L | -24.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Lakers | 46c | 14,759$6,752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,007.01 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Lakers | 47c | 6,635$3,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,516.45 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5993…33a2backed Raptors | 54c | 4,630$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 380 | 46.6%177 W · 203 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Lakers | 57c | 3,415$1,931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,483.29 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Lakers | 46c | 3,141$1,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,710.4 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Raptors | 43c | 3,002$1,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,290.71 | 155 | 49.7%77 W · 78 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1690…8c4dbacked Raptors | 73c | 2,174$1,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,595.25 | 70 | 64.3%45 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Raptors | 51c | 1,779$907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$907.2 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4301…6fc0backed Raptors | 56c | 1,264$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.83 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Lakers | 50c | 741.54$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.4 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa785…acb6backed Raptors | 57c | 541.86$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.86 | 324 | 55.9%181 W · 143 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed Raptors | 42c | 446.48$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.84 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Raptors | 16c | 399.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 448 | 21.4%96 W · 352 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…be69backed Raptors | 56c | 390.93$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.92 | 279 | 39.8%111 W · 168 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2407…7dcabacked Raptors | 48c | 316.36$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.96 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc6…314abacked Raptors | 46c | 260$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.6 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…04ebbacked Raptors | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | -10.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44bc…c53ebacked Raptors | 44c | 190.01$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.6 | 191 | 49.7%95 W · 96 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Lakers | 45c | 181.64$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.9 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68e4…00bdbacked Raptors | 52c | 143.09$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe97…89e1backed Lakers | 57c | 135.09$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.09 | 282 | 51.8%146 W · 136 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x236a…1a3ebacked Raptors | 56c | 122.49$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.47 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed Raptors | 56c | 83.71$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.79 | 362 | 47.5%172 W · 190 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ed…a870backed Raptors | 56c | 68.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Raptors | 54c | 55.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 244 | 54.1%132 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…0a5cbacked Raptors | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 368 | 42.4%156 W · 212 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…b1afbacked Lakers | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 22cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe09e…5047backed Lakers | 29c | 49.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aea…5590backed Raptors | 54c | 47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 180 | 51.1%92 W · 88 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6f…5d6fbacked Raptors | 56c | 37.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 231 | 44.2%102 W · 129 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…d1e7backed Lakers | 46c | 37.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd8…8593backed Lakers | 42c | 37.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…ecfabacked Raptors | 56c | 25.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Lakers | 46c | 24.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e56…35cbbacked Lakers | 56c | 24.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lakers (-3.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-0.5)Lakers won
- Immanuel Quickley: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Raptors vs. LakersLakers won
- Raptors vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Raptors vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 108.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Lakers: O/U 222.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Lakers: O/U 223.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Lakers: O/U 224.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Lakers: O/U 225.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Lakers: O/U 226.5Under won
- Spread: Lakers (-1.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-2.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.