Tennis · resolved market
Swiss Indoors Basel: Ugo Humbert vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1712f65923a227c5368f4d95cd7356b074029dac6acff9b6355a84a7e29ec3c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fokinaof Humbert, Fokina
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,667
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,759
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,667 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Humbert | 51c | 10,989$5,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,609.63 | 158 | 32.3%51 W · 107 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Fokina | 57c | 6,328$3,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,750.25 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe916…4563backed Humbert | 55c | 5,000$2,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,750 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Fokina | 59c | 4,500$2,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,849.99 | 669 | 49.6%332 W · 337 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Humbert | 50c | 3,140$1,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,554.86 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Fokina | 47c | 2,771$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470.78 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Humbert | 34c | 2,680$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903.17 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Humbert | 44c | 2,483$1,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,089.37 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Humbert | 29c | 2,000$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.15 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c5…f211backed Fokina | 44c | 1,700$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$955 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Humbert | 42c | 1,053$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.35 | 238 | 52.1%124 W · 114 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Fokina | 40c | 1,031$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.38 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x875c…d3e8backed Humbert | 37c | 908.56$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef5…325ebacked Humbert | 60c | 908.47$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544 | 99 | 61.6%61 W · 38 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb75d…9d01backed Humbert | 61c | 809.02$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.97 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Humbert | 57c | 765.7$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.21 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Fokina | 41c | 732.12$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.95 | 476 | 39.1%186 W · 290 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x644b…2145backed Fokina | 53c | 698.04$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.72 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b59…232fbacked Humbert | 36c | 694.44$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Fokina | 38c | 675.35$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.72 | 178 | 23%41 W · 137 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Fokina | 55c | 642.04$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.92 | 383 | 48%184 W · 199 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa253…7630backed Fokina | 42c | 597.14$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.56 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b6…f48dbacked Fokina | 49c | 578.5$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.1 | 320 | 50%160 W · 160 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Fokina | 42c | 568.97$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 761 | 40.6%309 W · 452 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31a…adffbacked Humbert | 58c | 517.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 252 | 44.4%112 W · 140 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3357…42fabacked Humbert | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…3b80backed Fokina | 41c | 489.99$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.1 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Humbert | 60c | 480.08$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.4 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa333…292bbacked Humbert | 59c | 432.2$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Humbert | 44c | 429.09$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.31 | 348 | 42.2%147 W · 201 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Humbert | 50c | 401.3$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0283…e7d3backed Humbert | 51c | 339.22$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173 | 202 | 57.4%116 W · 86 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa263…6cf0backed Humbert | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 175 | 38.3%67 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed46…1badbacked Humbert | 62c | 320.02$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa71a…e4e2backed Humbert | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Fokina | 41c | 306.17$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.17 | 360 | 47.2%170 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d76…9168backed Fokina | 62c | 302.97$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.24 | 375 | 40.8%153 W · 222 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ee…efe0backed Humbert | 39c | 276.24$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.91 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Humbert | 37c | 245.25$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.19 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde44…cb51backed Humbert | 61c | 229.51$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 134 | 35.1%47 W · 87 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Humbert | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Humbert | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Humbert | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…cba8backed Fokina | 37c | 199.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8c…b52cbacked Fokina | 41c | 195.26$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.26 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked Humbert | 53c | 188.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.08 | 174 | 42.5%74 W · 100 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Fokina | 45c | 175$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.25 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c17…de2bbacked Humbert | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Humbert | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x559e…7fe2backed Humbert | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefa5…d58bbacked Humbert | 58c | 127.59$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Fokina | 40c | 120$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 228 | 40.4%92 W · 136 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0799…9452backed Humbert | 60c | 120$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf83…915dbacked Fokina | 42c | 119.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 645 | 37.2%240 W · 405 L | -7.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Humbert | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 497 | 49.9%248 W · 249 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08cc…da60backed Humbert | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad5…bec4backed Humbert | 62c | 89.29$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.36 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f8…2d91backed Humbert | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Humbert | 60c | 82.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.69 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2b…573cbacked Fokina | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0c3dbacked Humbert | 46c | 69.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff4…55bcbacked Fokina | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 106 | 22.6%24 W · 82 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…52f7backed Humbert | 62c | 53.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x600f…4392backed Humbert | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6158…81bcbacked Humbert | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Humbert | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2532…52b6backed Humbert | 46c | 47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fb…2b2abacked Fokina | 72c | 45.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 44 | 75%33 W · 11 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x08f5…009bbacked Fokina | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a84…e271backed Fokina | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2167…b8a5backed Fokina | 40c | 45.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 64cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…e758backed Humbert | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Humbert | 42c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41cc…26eabacked Humbert | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…d4d8backed Humbert | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…d453backed Humbert | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.22per pick | 40cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x46b8…5299backed Fokina | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb888…8997backed Humbert | 58c | 27.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e2…9710backed Humbert | 60c | 25.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Fokina | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7faa…16fdbacked Humbert | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b5…5414backed Fokina | 46c | 23.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf4…a478backed Humbert | 58c | 17.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.