Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1890505dc0d4d4b2a63c390b4119af60b3e84d859db6df922363db9de935f407
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,215
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,307
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,215 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 52c | 4,447$2,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,149.59 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 49c | 681.8$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.79 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc86d…2e76backed No | 4c | 639.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 18c | 624.28$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.37 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 42c | 533.11$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.4 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 52c | 507.23$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.44 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 46c | 495$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.13 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 52c | 393.05$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.12 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 51c | 335.44$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.98 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked Yes | 63c | 300$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 38c | 259.34$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.84 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 53c | 258.09$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.88 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 53c | 237.6$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.53 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 49c | 225.29$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.85 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 47c | 222.19$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.24 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 55c | 221.4$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.79 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 48c | 216$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.93 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 58c | 215.32$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.88 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 19c | 195.94$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.69 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 48c | 186.16$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.58 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31de…03ffbacked Yes | 76c | 160$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 49 | 91.8%45 W · 4 L | +18.2wins | +0.37per pick | 55cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 77+0.25 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 77c | 160$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +14.7wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9d…e9f4backed Yes | 72c | 160$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.78 | 33 | 90.9%30 W · 3 L | +10.4wins | +0.32per pick | 59cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 47c | 148.94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.94 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 52c | 144.4$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.33 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 48c | 123.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.77 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 49c | 115$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.35 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 20c | 114.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x733c…c0a7backed No | 49c | 110$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.35 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 106.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.41 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…11f4backed Yes | 71c | 102.54$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b6…6c51backed No | 51c | 94.45$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.17 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2184…d271backed No | 51c | 86.3$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 51c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed Yes | 53c | 75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa76d…21cbbacked Yes | 55c | 72.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 45c | 71.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 33c | 71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 51c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb75f…f98bbacked No | 65c | 67.58$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.93 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 46c | 64.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 48c | 63.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 26c | 61.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…147ebacked Yes | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf96c…9014backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x040b…bbc5backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ad…5f89backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 58c | 48.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 47c | 45.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 53c | 42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 45c | 41.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6122…7b8fbacked No | 49c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 41c | 39.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 53c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 48c | 37.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed No | 49c | 34.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 53c | 33.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 32.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 36c | 32.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 50c | 32.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 49c | 30.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked No | 50c | 29.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 141 | 61.7%87 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 36c | 28.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 44c | 28.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb23b…503fbacked No | 50c | 27.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -51%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd31d…f8bfbacked No | 51c | 26.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 51c | 25.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a55…d76abacked No | 65c | 25.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 47c | 25.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 58c | 24.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 47c | 24.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 48c | 23.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 53c | 22.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 69c | 21.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 47c | 21.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.