TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,215
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,307

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,215 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ae0…7483backed Yes52c4,447$2,297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,149.5910539%41 W · 64 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No49c681.8$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.791,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc86d…2e76backed No4c639.27$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.74816.7%8 W · 40 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-53.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No18c624.28$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.372,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes42c533.11$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.41,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No52c507.23$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.441,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No46c495$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.1356543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No52c393.05$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.122,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No51c335.44$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.981,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc426…ac6ebacked Yes63c300$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11114646.6%68 W · 78 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1ab9…8ba6backed No38c259.34$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.8430442.8%130 W · 174 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed Yes53c258.09$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.8875546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1917…138bbacked No53c237.6$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.5333746.9%158 W · 179 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61f7…f8debacked Yes49c225.29$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.8528742.5%122 W · 165 L+24.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+24.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No47c222.19$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.242,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes55c221.4$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.794,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No48c216$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.932,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes58c215.32$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.884,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No19c195.94$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.694,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No48c186.16$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.5810,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x31de…03ffbacked Yes76c160$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.44991.8%45 W · 4 L+18.2wins+0.37per pick55cpaid+80.1%equal weight77+0.25 edge/pick
0x875e…e6b5backed Yes77c160$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.928176.5%62 W · 19 L+14.7wins+0.18per pick58cpaid+39%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x2e9d…e9f4backed Yes72c160$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.783390.9%30 W · 3 L+10.4wins+0.32per pick59cpaid+71.6%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes47c148.94$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.9464446.4%299 W · 345 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No52c144.4$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.335,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No48c123.36$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.771,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No49c115$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3590555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No20c114.67$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.936,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x733c…c0a7backed No49c110$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.355538.2%21 W · 34 L-7.5wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-36.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No47c106.95$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd46e…11f4backed Yes71c102.54$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.643953.8%21 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5185049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4af9…3144backed No46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4621950.7%111 W · 108 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7eb5…9400backed No48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4852758.8%310 W · 217 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4514452.8%76 W · 68 L+20.6wins+0.14per pick38cpaid+39.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xc1b6…6c51backed No51c94.45$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.172661.5%16 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2184…d271backed No51c86.3$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.013644.4%16 W · 20 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-15.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes51c80$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.23,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2429…02d9backed No45c80$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3617747.5%84 W · 93 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd212…5182backed Yes53c75$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.2513551.1%69 W · 66 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa76d…21cbbacked Yes55c72.11$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.442147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc196…4af6backed No45c71.83$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2427056.7%153 W · 117 L-1.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No33c71$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.395,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No51c70$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb75f…f98bbacked No65c67.58$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.934647.8%22 W · 24 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-20.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes46c64.84$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.851,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked No48c63.6$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.557948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No26c61.63$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.124,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No18c60$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.655,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4680050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fc7…147ebacked Yes59c50.85$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.858155.6%45 W · 36 L+9.2wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+31.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed No65c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.519259.4%114 W · 78 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes52c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb55…ff0fbacked No47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.515529%45 W · 110 L-9.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-27%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7320…0a3fbacked No48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2416148.4%78 W · 83 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b8e…aa69backed No48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2430849%151 W · 157 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf96c…9014backed No47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.51764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+35.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x989e…aa30backed No48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2414745.6%67 W · 80 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x040b…bbc5backed No47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.55444.4%24 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21d3…8c5fbacked No48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2413351.1%68 W · 65 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb31a…8817backed No48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2418254.4%99 W · 83 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98ad…5f89backed No47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.53655.6%20 W · 16 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+15.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes58c48.47$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.3615051.3%77 W · 73 L+12.7wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+5.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3c70…34c4backed No47c45.17$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.216847.6%80 W · 88 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes45c44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.246148.8%225 W · 236 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed Yes53c42$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.8858358%338 W · 245 L-2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No45c41.76$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.653,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes48c41.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.671,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed Yes57c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.12,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6122…7b8fbacked No49c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.49053.3%48 W · 42 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No41c39.57$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.314,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes53c38$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8686949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2797…9bc0backed No48c37.37$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8118142.5%77 W · 104 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed No49c34.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1742148%202 W · 219 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1894…a936backed Yes53c33.68$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.766758%387 W · 280 L+48.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No41c32.96$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No36c32.75$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.842,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes50c32.05$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.12,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No49c30.63$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.017,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No52c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.61,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No66c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.864859.1%383 W · 265 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe550…6f6ebacked No50c29.37$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6914161.7%87 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No36c28.17$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.012,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No44c28.07$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.324,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb23b…503fbacked No50c27.77$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.022227.3%6 W · 16 L-4.1wins-0.19per pick46cpaid-51%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd31d…f8bfbacked No51c26.03$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.288450%42 W · 42 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xacac…50fbbacked No51c25.73$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1228360.4%171 W · 112 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a55…d76abacked No65c25.63$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.662770.4%19 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes47c25.55$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.551,04838.1%399 W · 649 L-3.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes50c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.51,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd85…7a3dbacked No60c25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.951,05051.2%538 W · 512 L-99.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No42c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.62,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes48c25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1320842.8%89 W · 119 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes58c24.57$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.329,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf10e…4308backed Yes47c24.33$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8323673.3%173 W · 63 L+28.6wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+27.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked Yes48c23.96$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.4672952.4%382 W · 347 L+34.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No53c22.27$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.81,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes69c21.59$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.76,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes47c21.19$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1982268.7%565 W · 257 L+72.3wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x43fd…59d3backed No50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1015961.6%98 W · 61 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.