NBA · resolved market
Brandon Williams: Points O/U 12.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ae5252665456402fb1d9f81858046fe2afaf001fb0aee49c38eaed4f9f9a0db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,711
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,711 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3af8…a69ebacked Yes | 16c | 1,820$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked No | 75c | 1,633$1,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.17 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf034…d5a8backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -53%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed No | 65c | 685.96$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.09 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa858…3684backed Yes | 24c | 572.38$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 76c | 529.03$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.06 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7205…3377backed No | 66c | 499.99$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 456 | 57%260 W · 196 L | +44.6wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Yes | 24c | 414.12$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.39 | 775 | 49.2%381 W · 394 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…8357backed Yes | 26c | 385.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Yes | 26c | 384.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 155 | 43.2%67 W · 88 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 76c | 247.08$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.3 | 212 | 43.4%92 W · 120 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…9723backed No | 68c | 237.5$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 260 | 69.2%180 W · 80 L | +9.6wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16ef…3792backed Yes | 34c | 223.53$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f4…1b58backed Yes | 26c | 223.08$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…aff3backed Yes | 23c | 213.09$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26e9…1fbcbacked Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed Yes | 34c | 205.88$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | -14.1wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef7…2ed1backed Yes | 32c | 187.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae9d…d417backed Yes | 25c | 124$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked No | 76c | 114.93$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 920 | 58%534 W · 386 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed No | 75c | 96.6$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 831 | 58.1%483 W · 348 L | +18.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…77e6backed Yes | 23c | 71.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 183 | 56.3%103 W · 80 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89fa…6ab0backed Yes | 23c | 53.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb48…ffe7backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf804…8758backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9d…8498backed No | 51c | 40.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5767…8cc1backed Yes | 49c | 31.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 1,084 | 42.4%460 W · 624 L | -48.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Brandon Williams: Points O/U 12.5this page
- 1H Spread: Magic (-4.5)Mavericks won
- 1H Spread: Magic (-5.5)Mavericks won
- Anthony Black: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Anthony Black: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Brandon Williams: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Desmond Bane: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Desmond Bane: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Desmond Bane: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jalen Suggs: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Jalen Suggs: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Mavericks vs. MagicMagic won
- Mavericks vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Mavericks vs. Magic: 1H O/U 117.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Magic: O/U 227.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Magic: O/U 228.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Magic: O/U 229.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Magic: O/U 230.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Magic: O/U 231.5Under won
- Max Christie: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Max Christie: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 24.5No won
- Paolo Banchero: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Spread: Magic (-10.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Magic (-7.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Magic (-8.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Magic (-9.5)Mavericks won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.