TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Mavericks vs. Magic: O/U 228.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$54,515

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,515 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9cf0…8b2bbacked Over50c8,024$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,024.465945.8%27 W · 32 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Under47c6,384$2,991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,990.851,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Under50c3,750$1,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,887.569149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3153…1dbcbacked Under52c2,022$1,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,051.442065%13 W · 7 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+27.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over59c1,905$1,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$780.873,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa041…f9d5backed Over48c1,900$912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9882147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under48c1,842$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$887.899,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under46c1,773$812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811.693,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac0a…f89ebacked Over52c1,765$918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$846.9638251%195 W · 187 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Over53c1,686$894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$792.532,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Under47c1,553$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$729.9149852.6%262 W · 236 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf312…184dbacked Over48c1,396$671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$725.422040%8 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec2c…19f8backed Under52c1,279$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665.081662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under48c1,004$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.382,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4270…e461backed Under50c940$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4704742.6%20 W · 27 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Over55c875$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.622,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e16…0127backed Over52c859$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.3222143%95 W · 126 L-12.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over53c803$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.766,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Over49c800$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40884342.9%362 W · 481 L-39.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Under50c771.96$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.981,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Over55c708.92$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.553,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed45…3de8backed Under48c700$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3367454.1%40 W · 34 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under47c681.02$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.232,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over53c649.75$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.784,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under47c647.63$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.942,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x283d…3f5dbacked Under50c647$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1b4…998bbacked Over50c639$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.52100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under46c616.73$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.864,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07a0…7a80backed Over74c598.36$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.842763%17 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Under32c536.77$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.781,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5976…b3d4backed Over53c525$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.7511940.3%48 W · 71 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under48c492.71$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.368,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f5e…94e9backed Over53c479.2$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.2222746.3%105 W · 122 L-8.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over52c438.6$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.533,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Over60c371.68$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.2967921.4%145 W · 534 L+32.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+33.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6c67…a813backed Under75c370.46$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.852552%13 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-17.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Under44c358.09$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.0521243.4%92 W · 120 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under49c356.45$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.083,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Under47c300$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14145646.7%213 W · 243 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Over53c300$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14191148.1%438 W · 473 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Over25c294$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.51,20051.6%619 W · 581 L+66.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Over53c282.55$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.5552146.6%243 W · 278 L-14.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Under48c282$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.1951354.2%278 W · 235 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6e7…884cbacked Under48c277.32$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.1116338.7%63 W · 100 L-11.4wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-8.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Under31c264.38$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.581,53242.5%651 W · 881 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbec4…637fbacked Under42c220.71$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.7453149.3%262 W · 269 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over48c214.07$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.825,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Under45c211.69$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.511,42547.7%680 W · 745 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over52c202.01$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.964,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72a1…1950backed Over51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.0838152.8%201 W · 180 L+18.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc624…446fbacked Over51c192$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.081225%3 W · 9 L-3.1wins-0.25per pick51cpaid-51%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2528…a7d1backed Under50c192$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Over59c191.12$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.361,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x73a2…3b68backed Over59c190$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.939055.6%217 W · 173 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x292e…172cbacked Over54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.1943447.5%206 W · 228 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Under50c179$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.382,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Over46c173$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.4215543.9%68 W · 87 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe20c…95fbbacked Over58c172.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.41333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-42.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under44c166.96$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.463,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c39…20eebacked Under47c156.37$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.4935843.6%156 W · 202 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab2c…bba5backed Over51c150$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.52642.3%11 W · 15 L-3.1wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xea78…a74ebacked Under47c150$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.556547.8%270 W · 295 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf6c…bf5abacked Over76c131.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.584057.5%23 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under46c130.43$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5558…f9c4backed Under48c129.98$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.3937549.6%186 W · 189 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Under45c129.55$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.2288057.5%506 W · 374 L+34.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e98…110bbacked Over57c122.81$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.8130845.8%141 W · 167 L-1.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7509…d031backed Under48c120$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.820847.1%98 W · 110 L-9.5wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xda21…8646backed Over49c118.2$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.2862541.9%262 W · 363 L-32.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe722…57c5backed Over54c114.16$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.5176552.9%405 W · 360 L-2.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Over57c113$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.3876653.5%410 W · 356 L+65.5wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+15.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xae94…7efbbacked Under47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4758754.7%321 W · 266 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd506…4f0ebacked Over75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251973.7%14 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick66cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x67b4…19acbacked Under47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474052.5%21 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9a5…9445backed Over45c99.99$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554540%18 W · 27 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-2.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Under46c99.99$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4680737.7%304 W · 503 L-33.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Under48c99$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.521,63448.1%786 W · 848 L+5.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Under50c83$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.538540.3%155 W · 230 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6912…2aabbacked Over54c77.78$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.787744.2%34 W · 43 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-15.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3a25…bb6bbacked Under47c75$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2534047.1%160 W · 180 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04b4…8d0bbacked Under47c75$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2557250%286 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under50c72.56$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.282,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Under34c64$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7910623.6%25 W · 81 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cc9…185bbacked Over52c57.69$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.6929247.9%140 W · 152 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4861…4fcabacked Over45c54.22$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.8714858.1%86 W · 62 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb107…a3f8backed Under47c51$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.971,01851.6%525 W · 493 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb568…14d4backed Over75c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.527747.7%132 W · 145 L-20.4wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-17.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Under50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2578648.7%383 W · 403 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed Under49c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.595260.2%573 W · 379 L+37.0wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Under50c49.68$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8420140.3%81 W · 120 L-8.3wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd0f…48fdbacked Under50c44$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2223350.6%118 W · 115 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Under33c41.85$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6940243.8%176 W · 226 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71b6…4e91backed Under49c40.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2036350.1%182 W · 181 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe824…65b4backed Over53c40.8$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1852552%273 W · 252 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb227…8809backed Over51c39.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2211157.7%64 W · 47 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Over51c39.05$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.9410637.7%40 W · 66 L+9.3wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+47.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Over69c36.21$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2265872.8%479 W · 179 L+46.1wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc519…348abacked Under38c34$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9217243%74 W · 98 L-12.4wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-21.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Under51c33.45$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.111,05549.9%526 W · 529 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.