NBA · resolved market

Spread: Magic (-9.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x361b08412364006dd4b06b4c419df487efb379bcd69d8445829a479e952bfa4c

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Mavericksof Magic, Mavericks
Resolved: Mar 5, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $75,977

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,977 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6e82…752cbacked Mavericks	54c	22,509$12,145 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,363.98	1,204	55.3%666 W · 538 L	+52.0wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Magic	45c	19,194$8,731 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,731.28	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Mavericks	54c	12,450$6,723 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,727.29	382	53.4%204 W · 178 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac1a…f708backed Magic	46c	5,183$2,384 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,384.2	194	45.4%88 W · 106 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Mavericks	58c	5,172$3,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,172.41	1,910	54.3%1,038 W · 872 L	+25.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe85d…95d8backed Mavericks	61c	3,263$2,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,263.24	153	55.6%85 W · 68 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Magic	46c	3,167$1,463 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,463.48	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf059…6dd9backed Mavericks	52c	3,011$1,558 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,453.25	492	46.3%228 W · 264 L	-15.2wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a91…1769backed Magic	46c	2,592$1,192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,192.1	321	50.8%163 W · 158 L	+5.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Magic	46c	2,571$1,177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,176.64	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Magic	44c	2,214$963 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$963.47	3,668	41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L	-70.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Mavericks	51c	2,137$1,090 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,047	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Magic	45c	2,120$964 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$963.51	956	51.5%492 W · 464 L	+23.9wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Magic	46c	2,120$975 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$975.2	715	47.7%341 W · 374 L	-26.9wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x04d2…4c2cbacked Magic	46c	2,120$975 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$975	174	54%94 W · 80 L	+6.3wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf339…80d6backed Mavericks	53c	1,881$997 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$884.07	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+2.0wins	+0.33per pick	51cpaid	+61.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Magic	49c	1,820$892 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$892	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Magic	45c	1,685$757 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$757.41	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Magic	44c	1,664$732 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$732.09	285	54%154 W · 131 L	+5.5wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Magic	38c	1,575$598 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$598.38	402	43.8%176 W · 226 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Magic	46c	1,010$467 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$467.08	513	54.2%278 W · 235 L	+9.2wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Mavericks	58c	1,000$580 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$420	956	41.7%399 W · 557 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Mavericks	54c	1,000$540 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$460	409	47.7%195 W · 214 L	-13.0wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Magic	47c	909.29$424 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$423.81	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Mavericks	53c	868.75$460 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$408.31	806	53.6%432 W · 374 L	+16.2wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe292…a29dbacked Magic	44c	854.57$376 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$376.01	66	42.4%28 W · 38 L	-3.6wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-11%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Magic	40c	838$335 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$335.2	212	43.4%92 W · 120 L	+9.9wins	+0.05per pick	39cpaid	+6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Magic	49c	816.33$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	1,259	48.7%613 W · 646 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Mavericks	53c	626.85$329 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$297.67	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3f5e…94e9backed Mavericks	52c	600$312 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$288	227	46.3%105 W · 122 L	-8.8wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9385…2484backed Magic	48c	543.44$261 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260.85	93	52.7%49 W · 44 L	+6.5wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3704…0e84backed Mavericks	53c	528$280 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$248.16	259	51.4%133 W · 126 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b60…9c7ebacked Magic	46c	501.92$231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230.88	226	43.8%99 W · 127 L	-8.9wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Magic	14c	490.87$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.01	1,096	40.9%448 W · 648 L	+34.3wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	-17%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Magic	42c	383$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.03	1,645	47.5%782 W · 863 L	+40.9wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Magic	46c	380.88$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.94	1,197	48.9%585 W · 612 L	-14.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Magic	43c	373.34$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.45	1,633	41.2%672 W · 961 L	+26.3wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Magic	44c	320$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.8	456	46.7%213 W · 243 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Mavericks	49c	314.56$154 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$160.08	2,468	50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L	+38.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Magic	51c	309.56$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.88	2,208	46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L	+42.7wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38d5…865bbacked Magic	48c	306.52$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.39	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-1.7wins	-0.10per pick	51cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Mavericks	52c	279$145 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$133.92	911	48.1%438 W · 473 L	-11.6wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fb2…22e0backed Magic	43c	232.56$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.44per pick	44cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Magic	46c	223.94$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.88	2,507	48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L	+19.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…2037backed Mavericks	54c	185.17$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.18	29	44.8%13 W · 16 L	-2.1wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc0e3…c09fbacked Magic	48c	166.67$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	69	53.6%37 W · 32 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea78…a74ebacked Magic	44c	160$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.4	565	47.8%270 W · 295 L	+9.5wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Magic	45c	154.37$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.25	2,346	48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L	-14.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Magic	46c	152$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.92	2,753	50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L	+47.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b5f…7b99backed Magic	40c	140$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	382	42.9%164 W · 218 L	-11.5wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf0e…3197backed Mavericks	74c	140$103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.85	619	57.5%356 W · 263 L	+21.6wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe350…61f0backed Magic	48c	134$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.32	46	50%23 W · 23 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Magic	46c	122.44$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.32	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Magic	46c	113.45$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.38	648	44.8%290 W · 358 L	-32.3wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Magic	46c	108.7$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	970	49.5%480 W · 490 L	-11.4wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe722…57c5backed Mavericks	57c	108.25$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.55	765	52.9%405 W · 360 L	-2.9wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Mavericks	60c	101.22$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.22	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9738backed Mavericks	57c	100$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43	958	48.7%467 W · 491 L	+24.5wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Magic	46c	100$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	2,657	49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L	+42.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd506…4f0ebacked Mavericks	69c	93.71$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.46	19	73.7%14 W · 5 L	+1.5wins	+0.08per pick	66cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc519…348abacked Mavericks	72c	93$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.16	172	43%74 W · 98 L	-12.4wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6659…4b69backed Magic	27c	82.8$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.22	83	32.5%27 W · 56 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a25…bb6bbacked Magic	44c	80$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.2	340	47.1%160 W · 180 L	-10.3wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04b4…8d0bbacked Magic	44c	80$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.2	572	50%286 W · 286 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Magic	45c	73.45$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.85	2,949	51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L	+119.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Magic	49c	67.95$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.3	1,425	47.7%680 W · 745 L	+13.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b43…fae9backed Magic	47c	63$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.61	311	51.1%159 W · 152 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Mavericks	57c	53.47$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.99	454	45.4%206 W · 248 L	-6.2wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Mavericks	59c	51$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.91	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb107…a3f8backed Mavericks	56c	51$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.44	1,018	51.6%525 W · 493 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a67…0b8abacked Magic	41c	51$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.91	239	50.6%121 W · 118 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…110bbacked Magic	54c	49.36$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.55	308	45.8%141 W · 167 L	-1.2wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Magic	32c	42.81$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.71	1,283	23.4%300 W · 983 L	-178.2wins	-0.14per pick	37cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0x350e…7528backed Magic	43c	37.39$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.9	86	36%31 W · 55 L	-11.0wins	-0.13per pick	49cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x08f1…196ebacked Magic	51c	36.47$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.6	165	43.6%72 W · 93 L	-4.3wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Magic	47c	30.76$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.46	2,902	38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L	-51.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb870…5a8abacked Magic	54c	29$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.66	918	46.2%424 W · 494 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Magic	48c	27.75$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.32	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x134c…eeefbacked Mavericks	59c	26.27$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.8	82	50%41 W · 41 L	+3.9wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd0f…48fdbacked Magic	49c	22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.78	233	50.6%118 W · 115 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f19…b0cabacked Mavericks	78c	21.79$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.79	244	23.8%58 W · 186 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-56.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4861…4fcabacked Mavericks	49c	20.75$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.62	148	58.1%86 W · 62 L	+6.0wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd72…3821backed Mavericks	57c	18.11$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.79	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.43per pick	57cpaid	+75.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Magic (-9.5)this page
1H Spread: Magic (-4.5)Mavericks won
1H Spread: Magic (-5.5)Mavericks won
Anthony Black: Assists O/U 3.5No won
Anthony Black: Points O/U 14.5No won
Brandon Williams: Assists O/U 3.5No won
Brandon Williams: Points O/U 12.5No won
Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 18.5No won
Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
Desmond Bane: Assists O/U 3.5No won
Desmond Bane: Points O/U 21.5No won
Desmond Bane: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
Jalen Suggs: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
Jalen Suggs: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
Mavericks vs. MagicMagic won
Mavericks vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
Mavericks vs. Magic: 1H O/U 117.5Over won
Mavericks vs. Magic: O/U 227.5Over won
Mavericks vs. Magic: O/U 228.5Over won
Mavericks vs. Magic: O/U 229.5Under won
Mavericks vs. Magic: O/U 230.5Under won
Mavericks vs. Magic: O/U 231.5Under won
Max Christie: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
Max Christie: Points O/U 12.5No won
Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 24.5No won
Paolo Banchero: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
Spread: Magic (-10.5)Mavericks won
Spread: Magic (-7.5)Mavericks won
Spread: Magic (-8.5)Mavericks won
Wendell Carter Jr.: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Magic (-9.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event