NBA · resolved market
Mavericks vs. Magic: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x938f93ccb4f00bd29f8ef182b3cabe4aebed2ccf5cebfe9880348d89daa824c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,450
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,450 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc974…b33bbacked Over | 46c | 9,198$4,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,231.01 | 249 | 42.2%105 W · 144 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 54c | 3,902$2,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,810.19 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Under | 55c | 2,684$1,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,207.58 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Under | 41c | 1,001$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.39 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 41c | 916.86$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.1 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Under | 54c | 847$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.62 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacba…40a1backed Under | 60c | 626.56$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.36 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Under | 54c | 583.9$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.76 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Under | 54c | 539$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.94 | 513 | 54.2%278 W · 235 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 57c | 489.23$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.75 | 402 | 43.8%176 W · 226 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Under | 54c | 461.09$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.63 | 212 | 43.4%92 W · 120 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 52c | 416.58$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.66 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc935…2579backed Under | 72c | 414$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.06 | 68 | 72.1%49 W · 19 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 50c | 369.23$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.23 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 22c | 341.44$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.48 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3a…3246backed Under | 40c | 339.17$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.09 | 199 | 54.8%109 W · 90 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 48c | 325.55$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.73 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e32…d479backed Over | 39c | 300$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 131 | 15.3%20 W · 111 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…94e9backed Over | 46c | 272.11$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.17 | 227 | 46.3%105 W · 122 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Over | 11c | 200.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 44c | 154.17$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.88 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Over | 46c | 153.7$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.7 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 56c | 135.83$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976b…cf45backed Under | 55c | 101.64$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.74 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 454 | 45.4%206 W · 248 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bd…09c9backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 46c | 99.53$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.01 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 44c | 97.89$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 53c | 96.63$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.42 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 15c | 94.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 274 | 63.5%174 W · 100 L | +34.8wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b6…41a7backed Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…19c5backed Under | 54c | 92.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.26 | 243 | 58%141 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 38c | 84.47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.37 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8f…3adfbacked Over | 60c | 69.19$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 280 | 56.8%159 W · 121 L | +22.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…e607backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 529 | 51.2%271 W · 258 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Under | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 403 | 44.4%179 W · 224 L | -23.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ec…6bcbbacked Over | 48c | 45.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a89…adebbacked Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5558…f9c4backed Under | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 375 | 49.6%186 W · 189 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 46c | 25.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7262…c2f1backed Under | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x117d…6542backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 564 | 54.3%306 W · 258 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…05ccbacked Under | 53c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mavericks vs. Magic: O/U 231.5this page
- 1H Spread: Magic (-4.5)Mavericks won
- 1H Spread: Magic (-5.5)Mavericks won
- Anthony Black: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Anthony Black: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Brandon Williams: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Brandon Williams: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Desmond Bane: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Desmond Bane: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Desmond Bane: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jalen Suggs: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Jalen Suggs: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Mavericks vs. MagicMagic won
- Mavericks vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Mavericks vs. Magic: 1H O/U 117.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Magic: O/U 227.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Magic: O/U 228.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Magic: O/U 229.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Magic: O/U 230.5Under won
- Max Christie: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Max Christie: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 24.5No won
- Paolo Banchero: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Spread: Magic (-10.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Magic (-7.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Magic (-8.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Magic (-9.5)Mavericks won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.