TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Magic (-10.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Mavericksof Magic, Mavericks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,293
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,324

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,293 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8de5…e8bbbacked Mavericks59c500$295 inWon+$20513154.2%71 W · 60 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Magic41c500$205 inLost-$2053,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2639…a9b6backed Mavericks68c374.29$253 inWon+$121.2924147.7%115 W · 126 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ff3…1aa9backed Mavericks66c154$101 inWon+$52.5419645.9%90 W · 106 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Magic43c133.33$57 inLost-$57.332,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Magic44c128.34$57 inLost-$56.692,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Magic36c123.39$45 inLost-$44.913,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Magic42c116.91$49 inLost-$48.861,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Mavericks60c100$60 inWon+$4031947.6%152 W · 167 L-18.8wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-10.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x20ec…fa43backed Mavericks56c90.08$50 inWon+$40.0761056.1%342 W · 268 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Mavericks28c90$25 inWon+$64.823047.4%109 W · 121 L+19.2wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+19.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xae94…7efbbacked Magic72c78.54$57 inLost-$56.5558754.7%321 W · 266 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Magic40c77.1$31 inLost-$30.639,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Magic43c66.19$28 inLost-$28.462,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x434e…7454backed Mavericks60c50$30 inWon+$20450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6efb…01afbacked Mavericks60c41.67$25 inWon+$16.676147.5%29 W · 32 L-5.3wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-16.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Magic40c37.5$15 inLost-$1593145.8%426 W · 505 L-25.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Mavericks59c30$18 inWon+$12.32,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73a2…3b68backed Magic41c30$12 inLost-$12.339055.6%217 W · 173 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd0f…48fdbacked Mavericks57c22$13 inWon+$9.4623350.6%118 W · 115 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.