TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Magic (-8.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Mavericksof Magic, Mavericks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$355,502

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $355,502 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 261 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Magic49c50,669$25,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,00036549.6%181 W · 184 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Magic47c48,000$22,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,46048343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4435…0840backed Mavericks53c41,618$22,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,618.2926648.5%129 W · 137 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Magic47c37,030$17,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,3691,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Mavericks53c20,000$10,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,4001,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Mavericks50c20,000$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,00038253.4%204 W · 178 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Mavericks51c13,582$6,878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,703.619,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x498c…42bfbacked Mavericks54c11,641$6,251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,389.8615349%75 W · 78 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Magic48c11,525$5,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,5001,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf19d…276fbacked Mavericks52c11,348$5,882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,466.623147.6%110 W · 121 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Mavericks52c10,000$5,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,8001,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd9d…b730backed Magic51c10,000$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,099.981741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Mavericks54c10,000$5,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,599.9777348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78ad…45ccbacked Magic46c8,692$3,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,998.328361.4%51 W · 32 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Mavericks52c7,225$3,748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,477.234,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Mavericks48c7,067$3,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,678.952,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Mavericks52c6,908$3,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,343.341,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Mavericks52c6,801$3,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,298.514,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Magic53c6,658$3,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,509.712,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Magic46c6,510$2,982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,981.6131644.6%141 W · 175 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf059…6dd9backed Mavericks49c6,471$3,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,307.3149246.3%228 W · 264 L-15.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked Mavericks50c6,417$3,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,238.1434854%188 W · 160 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Mavericks52c5,587$2,905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,681.7687750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bee…a369backed Magic50c5,567$2,784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,783.78148.1%39 W · 42 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Magic52c5,500$2,885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,884.9969149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f43…c0c2backed Magic50c5,200$2,594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,593.9923435.9%84 W · 150 L-9.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Mavericks48c5,005$2,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,594.9270246.4%326 W · 376 L-20.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7234…1d85backed Mavericks53c4,684$2,472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,211.2715844.9%71 W · 87 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c74…4ef0backed Magic50c3,792$1,896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,895.8318749.2%92 W · 95 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4270…e461backed Mavericks47c3,776$1,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,001.44742.6%20 W · 27 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Mavericks54c3,543$1,898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,645.191,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Mavericks49c3,083$1,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,560.746,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a91…1769backed Magic50c2,803$1,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,401.432150.8%163 W · 158 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f92…1862backed Magic54c2,611$1,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4105463%34 W · 20 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+12.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x698b…4426backed Magic54c2,320$1,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,252.8522055%121 W · 99 L+12.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8ff3…1aa9backed Mavericks55c2,283$1,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,035.0719645.9%90 W · 106 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Magic2c2,212$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.673,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b2d…a88dbacked Magic52c2,112$1,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,096.136439.1%25 W · 39 L-7.7wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-26.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Mavericks39c2,027$791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,236.664,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76b4…ca9bbacked Magic48c1,900$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91244252.3%231 W · 211 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x00d5…ed84backed Mavericks54c1,851$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.4617050%85 W · 85 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe137…a117backed Magic48c1,832$879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$879.372425%6 W · 18 L-3.8wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-42.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Mavericks48c1,779$857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$921.832,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd222…6441backed Magic50c1,700$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8501844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Mavericks53c1,700$901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7992,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked Magic47c1,600$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75235749.6%177 W · 180 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Mavericks51c1,457$738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.365,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Mavericks50c1,454$727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7272,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32b0…0b70backed Mavericks50c1,399$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699.51464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.18per pick46cpaid+31.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Mavericks52c1,377$719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$657.953,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Mavericks50c1,334$668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.494,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24f8…e89dbacked Magic50c1,324$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e3a…3246backed Magic61c1,293$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.4919954.8%109 W · 90 L+12.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0864…f654backed Mavericks50c1,248$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6242100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Mavericks53c1,226$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.4164944.7%290 W · 359 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Magic53c1,096$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58150954.8%279 W · 230 L+14.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x506a…9a5bbacked Magic50c1,084$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Mavericks50c1,076$538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53840947.7%195 W · 214 L-13.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebc1…5e17backed Magic50c1,068$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2e0…d084backed Magic48c1,042$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50022447.8%107 W · 117 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d65…e614backed Mavericks47c1,029$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.176100%6 W · 0 L+2.8wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+91.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1c4d…8324backed Mavericks50c1,024$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+18.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9871…6085backed Mavericks50c1,020$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5102100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x713d…53a9backed Magic48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48018151.4%93 W · 88 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93e7…cc0cbacked Mavericks53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4706352.4%33 W · 30 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0b6…bd80backed Magic50c992$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7340…9233backed Mavericks51c981.18$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.82475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+51.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xae84…fd9dbacked Magic50c980.84$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4951650%8 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Mavericks51c979.55$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.981,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0309…821dbacked Mavericks50c976$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4882100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa43…7b3abacked Mavericks50c962.88$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.412100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x62fd…9497backed Mavericks50c952$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4762100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+98%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xebba…383cbacked Mavericks53c943.39$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.3924050.8%122 W · 118 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb58…86a4backed Magic46c929.49$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.5624151.9%125 W · 116 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf2a…9aa8backed Mavericks50c901$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.51533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-33.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf5e5…64b5backed Magic50c900$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Magic53c896.68$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.968,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93c1…1947backed Magic50c894$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a55…34babacked Magic50c881$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ff5…6598backed Magic50c866$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf70f…7912backed Magic50c864$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-60%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7d41…50c7backed Magic50c852$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f60…9de0backed Mavericks50c844$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4222100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda73…3eadbacked Magic50c840$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+39.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8d6…4825backed Mavericks50c806$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4032100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf9b0…bdf3backed Mavericks50c784$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3922100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+98%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x76ef…f33cbacked Mavericks50c774$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3873100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+102.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa7e9…2bffbacked Magic50c772$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b46…121dbacked Magic52c769.23$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40031551.7%163 W · 152 L-1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81b6…a445backed Mavericks50c762$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+32.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa61f…7993backed Magic52c754.06$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.9961747.8%295 W · 322 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f27…5f61backed Mavericks50c748$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3742100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x64c2…184dbacked Mavericks50c728$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3642100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x718c…9af7backed Mavericks51c722.61$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.442100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+98.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba76…bbebbacked Magic50c708$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb191…43bdbacked Magic50c696$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-23.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9ed…f895backed Mavericks50c680$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3402100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7181…bc85backed Mavericks50c676$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3382100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe350…61f0backed Magic51c653.93$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.394650%23 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x872a…ea65backed Magic50c642$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.