TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Mavericks vs. Magic: O/U 230.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,628

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,628 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x32ed…f960backed Over57c3,407$1,928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,928.362,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Over49c3,000$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4701,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under43c2,858$1,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,629.214,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Under51c2,267$1,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,111.7280737.7%304 W · 503 L-33.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x69ff…0d1dbacked Under52c1,250$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60033146.2%153 W · 178 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under51c874.33$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.569,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f5e…94e9backed Over49c599.99$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29422746.3%105 W · 122 L-8.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Under51c589.07$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.631,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Over44c567$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.2921243.4%92 W · 120 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Over48c480.97$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.8657950.1%290 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Over53c344.21$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.173,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under52c293.27$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.772,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over49c249.81$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.324,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fa4…9a4cbacked Over49c225$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.2516148.4%78 W · 83 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Over49c219.24$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.4391148.1%438 W · 473 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under51c218.02$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.836,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under51c194.3$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.213,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefa5…b417backed Over49c192$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.0818133.7%61 W · 120 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Over47c179.22$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.432,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…110bbacked Under54c129.63$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.6330845.8%141 W · 167 L-1.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under51c117.64$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.642,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98c1…3d1ebacked Over49c102.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502857.1%16 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b8d…bb92backed Under51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4925559.2%151 W · 104 L+13.4wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cb5…6be6backed Under51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4915156.3%85 W · 66 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Over50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060346.4%280 W · 323 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Under53c99$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.531,63448.1%786 W · 848 L+5.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under48c82.15$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.723,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under51c81.32$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.552,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Under52c59.45$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.551,19748.9%585 W · 612 L-14.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f9f…4b15backed Under52c57.89$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.899962.6%62 W · 37 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under60c52.25$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.023,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa33c…1b33backed Over49c49.59$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.362844.9%282 W · 346 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over47c42.68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.045,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb941…b56bbacked Over49c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.61241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-18.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2090357%515 W · 388 L+40.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over48c34.97$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.624,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x350e…7528backed Under50c32.58$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.348636%31 W · 55 L-11.0wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-26.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed Over48c32.1$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4183158.1%483 W · 348 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6fa…51e5backed Over49c25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2547349%232 W · 241 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a38…d525backed Under52c22.42$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.761442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5767…8cc1backed Under47c21.55$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.421,08442.4%460 W · 624 L-48.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over57c21.26$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.122,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x153d…cae2backed Under57c20.51$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.829835.7%35 W · 63 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48df…e4c9backed Over50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1021553.5%115 W · 100 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0684…d593backed Under51c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.887950.6%445 W · 434 L-16.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e6a…d38abacked Over50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103447.1%16 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1b9e…eb82backed Under51c19.53$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5234248.8%167 W · 175 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x67d2…a008backed Under77c15.33$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.5312961.2%79 W · 50 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.