TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Mavericks vs. Magic: O/U 227.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$37,906

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,906 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3558…0285backed Under1c9,068$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over57c5,077$2,884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,193.212,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under48c3,484$1,689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,689.262,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fa3…ab9cbacked Over59c3,399$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,399.1417246.5%80 W · 92 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over52c2,689$1,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,288.912,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under43c2,487$1,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,058.333,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under48c2,233$1,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,067.374,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under45c1,713$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$774.339,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under42c1,333$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.862,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Under48c1,250$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60069149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6eb…5402backed Over57c1,009$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.7711159.5%66 W · 45 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e16…0127backed Over54c825$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.522143%95 W · 126 L-12.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under37c684.38$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.618,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over52c676$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.486,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Under28c493.69$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.321243.4%92 W · 120 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Over55c332.8$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.863,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Under43c330.75$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.841,53242.5%651 W · 881 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Over20c224.71$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.7767921.4%145 W · 534 L+32.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+33.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Under44c199.99$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8880737.7%304 W · 503 L-33.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over50c188$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$942,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Under50c185.61$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.811,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf36f…e5b8backed Over56c180.3$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.3316261.7%100 W · 62 L+15.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under44c136.34$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.992,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…110bbacked Over55c125$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.9630845.8%141 W · 167 L-1.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5ab…c3acbacked Under44c113.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5015953.5%85 W · 74 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Under45c111.91$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.491,42547.7%680 W · 745 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Over52c110.28$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.931,15049.5%569 W · 581 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over77c100.78$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.453,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Under46c99$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.541,63448.1%786 W · 848 L+5.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fd5…ef85backed Over56c90.88$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.9912747.2%60 W · 67 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under49c86.01$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.954,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69b7…ae1dbacked Over71c81$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.499450%47 W · 47 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-15.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over54c68.27$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.44,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a3d…4d49backed Under43c63.23$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274025%10 W · 30 L-4.7wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-52.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Under47c55.87$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.371,19748.9%585 W · 612 L-14.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93e3…e590backed Under47c52.44$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.656437.5%24 W · 40 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-19.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Under41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.52,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf11b…3fe3backed Over55c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.56056.7%34 W · 26 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6082…6ce2backed Over57c47.37$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.376561.5%40 W · 25 L+5.4wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+11.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5558…f9c4backed Under46c41.81$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2337549.6%186 W · 189 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Under47c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.888057.5%506 W · 374 L+34.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe2c0…d4dcbacked Over56c35.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.711040%4 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-27.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Over71c35.21$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2165872.8%479 W · 179 L+46.1wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3fb9…a8b3backed Over57c35.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.0923657.2%135 W · 101 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfda1…454fbacked Under47c30.84$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.492123.8%5 W · 16 L-4.5wins-0.22per pick45cpaid-49.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x29aa…e4eabacked Under47c30.84$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.492119%4 W · 17 L-5.5wins-0.26per pick45cpaid-59.4%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xe825…39b7backed Under47c30.84$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.492927.6%8 W · 21 L-5.4wins-0.19per pick46cpaid-40%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Under47c30.76$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.462,90238.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L-51.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over48c27.83$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.475,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4af4…f9e0backed Over56c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113865.8%25 W · 13 L+4.0wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+19.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x74fe…8243backed Over54c22.22$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.224847.9%23 W · 25 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7509…d031backed Over55c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$920847.1%98 W · 110 L-9.5wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.