NBA · resolved market
Mavericks vs. Magic: O/U 227.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2da6175715baddeb4fe93d5e871b4092d258caaa7b02f45cbf581736a44153d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,906
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,906 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3558…0285backed Under | 1c | 9,068$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 57c | 5,077$2,884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,193.21 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 48c | 3,484$1,689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,689.26 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa3…ab9cbacked Over | 59c | 3,399$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,399.14 | 172 | 46.5%80 W · 92 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 52c | 2,689$1,401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,288.91 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 43c | 2,487$1,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,058.33 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 2,233$1,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,067.37 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 1,713$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.33 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 42c | 1,333$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.86 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 48c | 1,250$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 691 | 49.1%339 W · 352 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6eb…5402backed Over | 57c | 1,009$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.77 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e16…0127backed Over | 54c | 825$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.5 | 221 | 43%95 W · 126 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 37c | 684.38$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.61 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 52c | 676$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.48 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Under | 28c | 493.69$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.3 | 212 | 43.4%92 W · 120 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 55c | 332.8$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.86 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 43c | 330.75$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.84 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 20c | 224.71$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.77 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Under | 44c | 199.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 807 | 37.7%304 W · 503 L | -33.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 50c | 188$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Under | 50c | 185.61$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.81 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…e5b8backed Over | 56c | 180.3$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.33 | 162 | 61.7%100 W · 62 L | +15.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 44c | 136.34$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Over | 55c | 125$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.96 | 308 | 45.8%141 W · 167 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ab…c3acbacked Under | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 45c | 111.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 52c | 110.28$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.93 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 77c | 100.78$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 46c | 99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Over | 56c | 90.88$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 49c | 86.01$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.95 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69b7…ae1dbacked Over | 71c | 81$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 54c | 68.27$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3d…4d49backed Under | 43c | 63.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 47c | 55.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93e3…e590backed Under | 47c | 52.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf11b…3fe3backed Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6082…6ce2backed Over | 57c | 47.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5558…f9c4backed Under | 46c | 41.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 375 | 49.6%186 W · 189 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Under | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c0…d4dcbacked Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 236 | 57.2%135 W · 101 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfda1…454fbacked Under | 47c | 30.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -4.5wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x29aa…e4eabacked Under | 47c | 30.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -5.5wins | -0.26per pick | 45cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe825…39b7backed Under | 47c | 30.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -5.4wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -40%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 47c | 30.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 48c | 27.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4af4…f9e0backed Over | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74fe…8243backed Over | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7509…d031backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 208 | 47.1%98 W · 110 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mavericks vs. Magic: O/U 227.5this page
- 1H Spread: Magic (-4.5)Mavericks won
- 1H Spread: Magic (-5.5)Mavericks won
- Anthony Black: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Anthony Black: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Brandon Williams: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Brandon Williams: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Desmond Bane: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Desmond Bane: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Desmond Bane: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jalen Suggs: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Jalen Suggs: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Mavericks vs. MagicMagic won
- Mavericks vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Mavericks vs. Magic: 1H O/U 117.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Magic: O/U 228.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Magic: O/U 229.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Magic: O/U 230.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Magic: O/U 231.5Under won
- Max Christie: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Max Christie: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 24.5No won
- Paolo Banchero: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Spread: Magic (-10.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Magic (-7.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Magic (-8.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Magic (-9.5)Mavericks won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.