TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Mavericks vs. Magic: 1H Moneyline

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Mavericksof Mavericks, Magic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,853

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,853 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa965…3565backed Mavericks24c1,405$336 inWon+$1,069.61,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd480…ddc8backed Magic77c778.13$600 inLost-$600966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5da…ff1dbacked Magic74c767.55$570 inLost-$570.022937.9%11 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-28.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c57…bf46backed Mavericks35c220.43$77 inWon+$143.433740.5%15 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Magic24c199$48 inLost-$47.971,20051.6%619 W · 581 L+66.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Magic56c171.38$95 inLost-$95.135,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Mavericks67c96.23$65 inWon+$31.648956.4%276 W · 213 L+31.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Mavericks28c89$25 inWon+$64.082,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Magic73c77.38$56 inLost-$56.3159141.8%247 W · 344 L-26.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x67b1…63ecbacked Magic54c76.98$41 inLost-$41.479334.4%32 W · 61 L-11.4wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-32.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5767…8cc1backed Mavericks28c76.92$21 inWon+$55.491,08442.4%460 W · 624 L-48.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Mavericks28c49.89$14 inWon+$35.922,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d1f…48a4backed Magic52c39.37$20 inLost-$20.4710948.6%53 W · 56 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61ad…a0c8backed Magic44c34.09$15 inLost-$152864.3%18 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick69cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c06…8b38backed Mavericks70c28.86$20 inWon+$8.661266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.