MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c5ee4e0fb7c557e0e7fd1f03c82adac4d97926b3d8734cd40908458cee45862
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof Boston Red Sox, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,417
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,015
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,417 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Athletics | 56c | 5,494$3,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,396.7 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…8409backed Boston Red Sox | 44c | 5,006$2,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,202.53 | 260 | 54.2%141 W · 119 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Athletics | 56c | 4,944$2,754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,190.45 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Boston Red Sox | 44c | 3,180$1,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,397.33 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Boston Red Sox | 45c | 2,942$1,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,315.01 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Athletics | 55c | 1,530$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.92 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Boston Red Sox | 45c | 1,460$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.25 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Boston Red Sox | 45c | 1,200$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.74 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Athletics | 76c | 1,065$806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.37 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Boston Red Sox | 24c | 900$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5e…2ea3backed Boston Red Sox | 8c | 895.75$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.66 | 45 | 0%0 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2b…c304backed Boston Red Sox | 45c | 888.89$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Athletics | 55c | 881$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.09 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Boston Red Sox | 45c | 744.2$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.89 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Athletics | 55c | 704.14$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.86 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Boston Red Sox | 4c | 528.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Athletics | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Athletics | 56c | 369.26$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.47 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Athletics | 79c | 282$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Athletics | 76c | 277.07$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Athletics | 57c | 193$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.99 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Athletics | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 321 | 66.4%213 W · 108 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Athletics | 56c | 167.41$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.66 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Athletics | 56c | 135$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Boston Red Sox | 15c | 109.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e2…0f82backed Boston Red Sox | 44c | 104.55$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 137 | 43.8%60 W · 77 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…23ffbacked Boston Red Sox | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 394 | 40.9%161 W · 233 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Boston Red Sox | 25c | 86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Athletics | 56c | 83$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.78 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Athletics | 57c | 78.6$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked Boston Red Sox | 18c | 77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 153 | 40.5%62 W · 91 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Boston Red Sox | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9c…0f59backed Boston Red Sox | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Athletics | 55c | 48.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc313…e128backed Athletics | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 379 | 41.2%156 W · 223 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6540backed Athletics | 57c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 148 | 48.6%72 W · 76 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Athletics | 78c | 33.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked Boston Red Sox | 45c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Athletics | 57c | 21.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Athletics | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)this page
- Athletics vs. Boston Red SoxAthletics won
- Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.