MLB · resolved market
Spread: Athletics (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeed7ecaef8ebe0bf1577bcd047601e732d1acdaf55a20b06c16a6c7a11bd711e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof Athletics, Boston Red Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,686
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,625
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,686 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9905…add3backed Athletics | 77c | 1,924$1,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.77 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Athletics | 51c | 1,663$848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.22 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Boston Red Sox | 23c | 1,570$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.6 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Boston Red Sox | 49c | 1,500$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Athletics | 15c | 1,025$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.59 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Boston Red Sox | 42c | 571.42$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.52 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Boston Red Sox | 63c | 340.53$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.51 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Boston Red Sox | 49c | 249.98$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.49 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Athletics | 26c | 209.12$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.65 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Boston Red Sox | 30c | 208.95$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.82 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Boston Red Sox | 38c | 204.55$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.57 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Boston Red Sox | 55c | 149.74$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.88 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Athletics | 43c | 105.45$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.68 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Athletics | 14c | 105$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.35 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Athletics | 15c | 94.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.22 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49f0…285fbacked Boston Red Sox | 50c | 91.96$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.35 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | -9.7wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed Boston Red Sox | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 281 | 52%146 W · 135 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Athletics | 36c | 77.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.49 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Boston Red Sox | 62c | 74.54$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.21 | 215 | 47%101 W · 114 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e96…33c9backed Athletics | 52c | 73.23$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.23 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Athletics | 74c | 72.6$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Boston Red Sox | 37c | 72.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Athletics | 51c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 162 | 61.1%99 W · 63 L | +14.6wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…caa6backed Boston Red Sox | 41c | 44.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Athletics | 65c | 41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…3373backed Boston Red Sox | 43c | 40.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x050d…2b12backed Athletics | 51c | 32.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Athletics | 67c | 32.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 459 | 52.9%243 W · 216 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Athletics | 51c | 26.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1024…9651backed Boston Red Sox | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 335 | 56.1%188 W · 147 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2c…00b5backed Athletics | 42c | 25.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Athletics | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)this page
- Athletics vs. Boston Red SoxAthletics won
- Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.