MLB · resolved market
Spread: Athletics (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebb570297974f166d4efb8fdb24af1fac99e1b072f1dd0234df26a470ff00291
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof Athletics, Boston Red Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,513
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,090
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,513 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Athletics | 21c | 7,337$1,541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,796.23 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Boston Red Sox | 22c | 3,550$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780.92 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Boston Red Sox | 79c | 3,339$2,622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,622.3 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Athletics | 70c | 1,544$1,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.2 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Boston Red Sox | 30c | 1,500$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Boston Red Sox | 65c | 1,404$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909.18 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Athletics | 63c | 1,308$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.87 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Athletics | 48c | 1,109$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.47 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd485…3b87backed Boston Red Sox | 80c | 769$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Athletics | 20c | 528$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.4 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Athletics | 31c | 479.76$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.25 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Boston Red Sox | 36c | 380.55$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.37 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Athletics | 20c | 319.33$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.46 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Boston Red Sox | 30c | 250$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Athletics | 52c | 218$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.04 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Athletics | 67c | 196.59$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.17 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Boston Red Sox | 80c | 188$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.4 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5410…dcc7backed Athletics | 38c | 126.68$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.54 | 121 | 28.1%34 W · 87 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Athletics | 23c | 104.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.35 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Athletics | 41c | 102.92$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.3 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Boston Red Sox | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked Boston Red Sox | 74c | 98.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.77 | 153 | 40.5%62 W · 91 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2c…00b5backed Boston Red Sox | 60c | 95.09$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.15 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1d…f2dfbacked Athletics | 70c | 72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…caa6backed Boston Red Sox | 27c | 66.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…5628backed Athletics | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Boston Red Sox | 64c | 53.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…ff44backed Athletics | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 264 | 44.3%117 W · 147 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97d4…7b65backed Athletics | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Athletics | 79c | 42.07$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x447d…1892backed Boston Red Sox | 77c | 32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Athletics | 63c | 22.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Athletics | 63c | 21.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03f8…99d0backed Boston Red Sox | 73c | 20.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)this page
- Athletics vs. Boston Red SoxAthletics won
- Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.