MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0669aaca22b0a2c5a4b4ed145c606b83a8585047200fadbc61fe01cd6cbc717
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $173,780
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $173,334
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $173,780 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 65c | 142,218$92,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49,921.52 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 35c | 113,161$39,606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39,606.35 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 39c | 18,200$7,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,027.24 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 47c | 9,814$4,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,595.34 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 52c | 5,177$2,705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,472.6 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 36c | 4,000$1,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,420 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 39c | 3,481$1,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,345.99 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 62c | 3,000$1,845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,154.9 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…e6a6backed Over | 4c | 1,637$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.74 | 69 | 7.2%5 W · 64 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 36c | 1,599$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.64 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x762e…4bf0backed Under | 61c | 1,177$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.05 | 245 | 51.8%127 W · 118 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 63c | 1,016$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.44 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 36c | 1,000$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…9fc9backed Over | 35c | 857.14$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 35c | 822.56$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.89 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 37c | 509$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.33 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 76c | 507.3$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.61 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 36c | 462$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.86 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 9c | 424.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…345cbacked Under | 63c | 387.83$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.83 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 40c | 275.01$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 255.8$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.32 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 66c | 250$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 79c | 226.84$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Over | 37c | 136.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.41 | 215 | 47%101 W · 114 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 314 | 46.8%147 W · 167 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe707…e0cfbacked Under | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.28 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 36c | 79.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…44d6backed Under | 56c | 77.38$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 1,911 | 53.1%1,014 W · 897 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb93…94cfbacked Over | 49c | 67.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Under | 60c | 58.41$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…ff44backed Over | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 264 | 44.3%117 W · 147 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2c…00b5backed Under | 68c | 47.42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6509…2dc5backed Over | 36c | 46.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 41c | 45.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 67c | 37.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 40c | 36.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Over | 37c | 32.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 52c | 28.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 40c | 27.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,813 | 49.1%891 W · 922 L | -26.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…208ebacked Under | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 136 | 66.2%90 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd819…2d80backed Under | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5this page
- Athletics vs. Boston Red SoxAthletics won
- Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.