MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a1fe8467dee4cc9f38eace9f66529b3deac7229e66b72651996675b43bb2f6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,744
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,940
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,744 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc0df…5974backed No | 54c | 1,392$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 222 | 57.2%127 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 48c | 1,362$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.49 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 65c | 1,015$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.29 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed No | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.99 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…e6a6backed No | 5c | 850$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 69 | 7.2%5 W · 64 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 47c | 764.99$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.17 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Yes | 48c | 611$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.77 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84a3…44dcbacked No | 54c | 609.09$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.91 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 47c | 608.68$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.1 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9621…0a73backed No | 51c | 588.82$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 186 | 58.6%109 W · 77 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed No | 53c | 471.79$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 281 | 52%146 W · 135 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73aa…409bbacked Yes | 49c | 256$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.66 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 46c | 232$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.28 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Yes | 47c | 230.85$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.35 | 326 | 52.5%171 W · 155 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Yes | 46c | 218$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.72 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a49…651abacked No | 52c | 198.09$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.01 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce00…7d1dbacked No | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…edc5backed No | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Yes | 47c | 142.24$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.09 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 46c | 119.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Yes | 46c | 118$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.72 | 321 | 52%167 W · 154 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 47c | 104.49$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Yes | 47c | 103.84$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.59 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked No | 63c | 103.16$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.71 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa845…6b8fbacked No | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7655…f0b2backed No | 69c | 87.2$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 46c | 80$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b5…fd79backed No | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 185 | 56.2%104 W · 81 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f0…0f4cbacked Yes | 31c | 62.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 50c | 59.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1607…2c65backed No | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 219 | 54.8%120 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6540backed Yes | 47c | 54.59$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 148 | 48.6%72 W · 76 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Yes | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 48c | 49.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…51debacked No | 52c | 48.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 222 | 57.7%128 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaea5…26e3backed No | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 194 | 54.6%106 W · 88 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07ea…f3a4backed No | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7f…bb6dbacked No | 53c | 46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 147 | 51.7%76 W · 71 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c47…b30abacked No | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Yes | 46c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 707 | 44.7%316 W · 391 L | -22.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 48c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Boston Red Soxthis page
- Athletics vs. Boston Red SoxAthletics won
- Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Athletics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.