TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Athleticsof Athletics, Boston Red Sox
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$937,368
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$904,256

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $937,368 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 436 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4bff…fc26backed Athletics29c196,864$57,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139,788.9243647%205 W · 231 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Boston Red Sox71c161,759$114,849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114,848.8932152%167 W · 154 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x684b…8409backed Athletics29c100,000$29,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70,999.7626054.2%141 W · 119 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Boston Red Sox27c93,575$25,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,265.1885645.3%388 W · 468 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+36.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Boston Red Sox53c61,290$32,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,788.1111,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Boston Red Sox71c32,689$23,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,209.22,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16bb…8492backed Athletics30c31,010$9,303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,707.1586548.7%421 W · 444 L-8.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Athletics48c21,941$10,605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,335.68,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Boston Red Sox71c16,589$11,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,778.1971650.7%363 W · 353 L+9.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26b4…b8a9backed Boston Red Sox53c15,986$8,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,521.6943554%235 W · 200 L-0.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Boston Red Sox70c13,500$9,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,450.015,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x689f…259cbacked Athletics10c11,309$1,131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,178.019639.6%38 W · 58 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid+0.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Boston Red Sox62c10,266$6,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,336.6679442.4%337 W · 457 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Athletics31c10,041$3,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,941.352,96948.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Athletics50c7,161$3,568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,592.824,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Boston Red Sox27c5,627$1,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,540.0725248.8%123 W · 129 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Boston Red Sox71c5,000$3,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5501,29250.2%648 W · 644 L+18.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Boston Red Sox26c3,999$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,039.844,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1250…8f99backed Boston Red Sox49c3,111$1,513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,513.515749.7%78 W · 79 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Athletics29c3,060$887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,172.619534.4%67 W · 128 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Boston Red Sox1c3,048$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401,1807.2%85 W · 1,095 L-13.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Boston Red Sox71c2,825$2,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,006.034,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Athletics29c2,688$776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,911.536,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Boston Red Sox70c2,500$1,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7501,06348.2%512 W · 551 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb25…62edbacked Boston Red Sox24c2,471$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6004318.6%8 W · 35 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-45.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf93f…f94bbacked Boston Red Sox58c2,400$1,392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3928739.1%34 W · 53 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+12.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Athletics29c2,126$621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,504.632,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58b9…ee8bbacked Athletics29c2,000$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,419.9875248.8%367 W · 385 L-1.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa73a…656abacked Boston Red Sox71c1,791$1,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,270.3457758.1%335 W · 242 L+28.5wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Boston Red Sox19c1,787$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.778,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83d9…10d9backed Athletics60c1,641$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$653.144553.5%238 W · 207 L+12.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Boston Red Sox70c1,600$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,12064452.2%336 W · 308 L+26.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x34a6…22d2backed Boston Red Sox71c1,523$1,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,081.062661.5%16 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Boston Red Sox16c1,500$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2401,79643.8%786 W · 1,010 L-33.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31ed…552ebacked Athletics17c1,456$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,208.872937.9%11 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick42cpaid+3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Boston Red Sox72c1,445$1,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,036.961,72550.1%864 W · 861 L-4.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4699…5051backed Boston Red Sox19c1,433$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.1816814.3%24 W · 144 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid+18.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Boston Red Sox35c1,409$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.141,49958.9%883 W · 616 L+75.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Boston Red Sox55c1,339$733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732.718,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05d9…ecd7backed Athletics26c1,131$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841.31862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+43%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8efa…894cbacked Athletics29c1,102$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$782.4245445.2%205 W · 249 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ce7…3150backed Athletics30c1,000$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70015447.4%73 W · 81 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdda3…d55fbacked Athletics10c999.98$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$899.9810636.8%39 W · 67 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Athletics27c900$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$655.741,45642.7%622 W · 834 L-39.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Athletics49c850.43$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.852,14439.6%849 W · 1,295 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Athletics29c843.87$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$598.331,55548.9%761 W · 794 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Boston Red Sox72c825.98$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.361,56951.1%801 W · 768 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed Boston Red Sox55c819.93$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.961,13742.6%484 W · 653 L+10.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Boston Red Sox50c804.83$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.939,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Boston Red Sox71c789$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.191,52148.6%739 W · 782 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Athletics21c753.57$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$593.0812,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Boston Red Sox68c741.98$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.792,02139.5%798 W · 1,223 L-25.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x619a…036abacked Boston Red Sox52c707.52$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3702263.6%14 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+22.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Boston Red Sox70c706.4$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.561,51551.1%774 W · 741 L+7.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Boston Red Sox63c698.25$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.2637032.7%121 W · 249 L-12.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50c3…ace1backed Athletics30c625$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.586653%459 W · 407 L+16.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc81a…c368backed Athletics28c597.99$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.2140446.5%188 W · 216 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38fa…87b5backed Athletics13c591.8$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.7121033.3%70 W · 140 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c87…bf18backed Boston Red Sox70c546.18$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.321656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74dd…df82backed Boston Red Sox7c539$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3112035%42 W · 78 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6dd…7af9backed Boston Red Sox55c522.22$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.8321547%101 W · 114 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Athletics59c516.72$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.2595045.2%429 W · 521 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ff9…bb89backed Boston Red Sox70c500$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35012450%62 W · 62 L+0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f76…dcc9backed Athletics57c452.55$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.8485148.5%413 W · 438 L+10.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a5f…dc31backed Boston Red Sox71c422.54$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003151.6%16 W · 15 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x23d1…52c5backed Boston Red Sox71c422.54$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003948.7%19 W · 20 L-4.8wins-0.12per pick61cpaid-19.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xe292…84b8backed Athletics30c420$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.21,40243.1%604 W · 798 L+4.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb9f…345cbacked Boston Red Sox71c405$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.555350.9%27 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c5b…ec01backed Boston Red Sox71c404.82$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.4222050.5%111 W · 109 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f61…ea25backed Athletics30c400$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+66.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49f0…285fbacked Boston Red Sox59c397.69$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.638342.2%35 W · 48 L-9.7wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-25.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1fe8…72bcbacked Boston Red Sox21c392.2$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.6924252.9%128 W · 114 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad54…006abacked Athletics45c384.56$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.5158060.5%351 W · 229 L+30.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Athletics29c379.34$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.333,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5a6…6991backed Boston Red Sox40c374.65$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15039739.5%157 W · 240 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb43e…8200backed Athletics29c370.08$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.7622744.9%102 W · 125 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Athletics20c361.75$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.313,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed Boston Red Sox77c359.02$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.191,77749.5%880 W · 897 L+25.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Boston Red Sox71c346$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.6668053.2%362 W · 318 L+2.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x986c…3180backed Athletics29c333.36$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.4851547%242 W · 273 L+1.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2396…9485backed Boston Red Sox71c331.78$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.5628751.9%149 W · 138 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf824…ebe3backed Athletics33c320.76$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.912334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8fe…359dbacked Athletics55c307.64$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.8212245.9%56 W · 66 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b40…b77abacked Boston Red Sox71c300$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc9f…905bbacked Athletics29c300$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21336729.4%108 W · 259 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b0f…b7aebacked Athletics23c298$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.4652638.4%202 W · 324 L+1.5wins0.00per pick38cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x772b…1840backed Boston Red Sox71c293.75$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.565935.6%21 W · 38 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-2.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc92c…6f15backed Boston Red Sox71c281.69$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20027357.1%156 W · 117 L+0.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Athletics58c272$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.8240043%172 W · 228 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58d5…8898backed Athletics30c270$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.81,20543%518 W · 687 L+4.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x332f…80a4backed Athletics50c269.28$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.643946.2%18 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Athletics48c260.77$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.3658746%270 W · 317 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea53…e1ebbacked Athletics31c258.06$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.064845.8%22 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24ce…da46backed Athletics43c250.63$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.2647852.3%250 W · 228 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcda3…36cfbacked Athletics30c250$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.21,31043.6%571 W · 739 L+13.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Boston Red Sox16c250$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4031844%140 W · 178 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e68…3772backed Boston Red Sox62c250$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15524947%117 W · 132 L+15.0wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-1.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3fbb…3f66backed Athletics29c229$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.541070%7 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+26.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6509…2dc5backed Boston Red Sox27c222.22$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601450%7 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d14…663fbacked Boston Red Sox71c211.5$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.1716856.5%95 W · 73 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.