TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora - Game 3 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Auroraof Tundra Esports, Aurora
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$263,473
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$306,783

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $263,473 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 198 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf9b5…09eebacked Tundra Esports52c35,685$18,463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,463.4355157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Aurora39c23,564$9,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,474.0242650%213 W · 213 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Tundra Esports6c18,580$1,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,157.9680443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked Aurora48c17,605$8,374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,230.553451.7%276 W · 258 L+2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58f8…dc70backed Aurora39c16,830$6,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,267.836261.3%38 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Tundra Esports63c12,865$8,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,099.9396557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcc81…5df2backed Tundra Esports62c12,000$7,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,407.669557.9%55 W · 40 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5922…3388backed Tundra Esports0c10,600$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.272133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-33.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb517…434bbacked Aurora40c7,503$3,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,501.522842.1%96 W · 132 L-25.3wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-23.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Tundra Esports60c7,453$4,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,471.532854.9%180 W · 148 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Tundra Esports34c5,636$1,929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,928.671454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Aurora39c5,558$2,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,369.5822954.1%124 W · 105 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b91…06c4backed Tundra Esports9c5,281$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002828.6%8 W · 20 L-4.3wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-44.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed Tundra Esports61c4,096$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50054556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed Aurora40c3,345$1,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,011.8713045.4%59 W · 71 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc83f…23e4backed Tundra Esports18c3,300$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5941855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+30.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0856…2d20backed Tundra Esports43c3,163$1,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3551963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5554…98f9backed Tundra Esports31c3,096$944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$944.36066.7%40 W · 20 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Aurora40c3,000$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,799.9964744.4%287 W · 360 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Tundra Esports13c2,962$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.121,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84c4…abaebacked Tundra Esports65c2,652$1,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,727.52560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5b7…7ffabacked Aurora37c2,347$868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,478.435642.9%24 W · 32 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0738…6392backed Tundra Esports60c2,346$1,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,412.6321264.2%136 W · 76 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x500f…94bfbacked Tundra Esports61c2,143$1,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,307.3913558.5%79 W · 56 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x858e…1c3bbacked Tundra Esports42c2,035$846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$846.461435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75b3…be68backed Aurora39c2,018$786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,231.553250%16 W · 16 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+25.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebf5…b1d0backed Tundra Esports19c1,900$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36928650%143 W · 143 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d03…9a41backed Tundra Esports32c1,800$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57423050.9%117 W · 113 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Tundra Esports45c1,654$742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742.266662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7353…b476backed Tundra Esports13c1,538$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010645.3%48 W · 58 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Aurora37c1,515$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$954.1739936.8%147 W · 252 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Aurora36c1,390$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$889.860646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed Tundra Esports3c1,378$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.3140014.8%59 W · 341 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a12…d212backed Aurora70c1,246$871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.078957.3%51 W · 38 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00a1…5062backed Tundra Esports50c1,218$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.0521346.5%99 W · 114 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a65…ffcdbacked Tundra Esports60c1,084$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.929051.1%46 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbc2…514cbacked Tundra Esports18c1,024$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.8233845.6%154 W · 184 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefee…d2b3backed Tundra Esports60c1,002$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.1812256.6%69 W · 53 L-7.5wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6503…0c3dbacked Aurora47c1,001$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534.918461.9%52 W · 32 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Tundra Esports61c967.31$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.117955.7%44 W · 35 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked Tundra Esports19c864.54$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16864123.4%150 W · 491 L-18.6wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Aurora37c799.97$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.9879959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x503d…886abacked Tundra Esports12c799$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.882931%9 W · 20 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-30.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x930b…0223backed Tundra Esports63c795.56$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.523459%138 W · 96 L+0.6wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc58…1e76backed Tundra Esports30c794.22$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-66.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd43…88d7backed Aurora45c791.67$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.8910334%35 W · 68 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b89…1069backed Aurora37c789.96$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.6715653.8%84 W · 72 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked Tundra Esports65c717$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.8839660.1%238 W · 158 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6450…9547backed Aurora41c700$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41310141.6%42 W · 59 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Tundra Esports18c672.3$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.022,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Aurora39c663$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.6355751.7%288 W · 269 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Aurora60c634.52$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.812,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x28f5…2035backed Tundra Esports48c630$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.933265.4%217 W · 115 L+23.7wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+5.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed Aurora41c600$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35780742.6%344 W · 463 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4f9…32b1backed Aurora57c600$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25831245.8%143 W · 169 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa61b…05e5backed Tundra Esports62c584.57$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.451353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick63cpaid-18.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbdda…2408backed Tundra Esports2c569.92$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.760%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed Tundra Esports42c550$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23360251.2%308 W · 294 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed Aurora38c512.67$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.8560552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0cd9…2a08backed Tundra Esports16c500$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.6452243.9%229 W · 293 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7484…de96backed Aurora50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2509651%49 W · 47 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9fb…95fbbacked Tundra Esports65c499.99$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3258854.5%48 W · 40 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x860e…a06dbacked Tundra Esports17c488.83$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.8316440.2%66 W · 98 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d96…d524backed Tundra Esports63c476.19$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30026957.6%155 W · 114 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1448…9b9cbacked Aurora42c470.27$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.2713262.9%83 W · 49 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b12…5f8fbacked Aurora36c451.12$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.7229548.5%143 W · 152 L+0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac93…0cfcbacked Tundra Esports56c450$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25258152.5%305 W · 276 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Tundra Esports45c432.61$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.441,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3fb…19c0backed Aurora36c400$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.76735.8%24 W · 43 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92f8…0e1fbacked Tundra Esports18c388.88$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709440.4%38 W · 56 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-20%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7596…9773backed Tundra Esports69c374.17$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.74955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77f2…eec6backed Tundra Esports29c349.65$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10055457.8%320 W · 234 L+12.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked Aurora41c348.56$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.6553844.4%239 W · 299 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5799…db25backed Aurora58c345.42$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.4246049.8%229 W · 231 L+2.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xeaae…ec88backed Aurora46c328.21$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.2117146.8%80 W · 91 L+8.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Tundra Esports18c315$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.733645.5%153 W · 183 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8120…54c9backed Aurora41c309.14$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.147941.8%33 W · 46 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b26…57e9backed Tundra Esports55c308.81$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.2121851.8%113 W · 105 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x01d4…33d8backed Aurora59c305.81$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.8111757.3%67 W · 50 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed Aurora67c284$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.5661548.8%300 W · 315 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58c9…e194backed Aurora37c267.57$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.574035%14 W · 26 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe497…5403backed Aurora69c266.48$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.522254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x380c…951cbacked Aurora77c265.87$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.794973.5%36 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick70cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cab…a8cfbacked Aurora75c265.22$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.2135370%247 W · 106 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11ff…4447backed Tundra Esports31c251.77$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7822534.2%77 W · 148 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed Tundra Esports59c249.75$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.3557455.4%318 W · 256 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4cb…63bebacked Tundra Esports53c246.97$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13012455.6%69 W · 55 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x899e…0863backed Tundra Esports61c213.11$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13026454.5%144 W · 120 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Aurora73c212.46$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.7992056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd4d8…c3f8backed Tundra Esports30c206$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.88035%28 W · 52 L-8.6wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-27.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcbf4…e3a6backed Aurora38c202.95$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.839345.2%42 W · 51 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Aurora38c200$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1241,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4588…d206backed Tundra Esports60c200$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1202171.4%15 W · 6 L+3.9wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+33.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9f9c…101cbacked Aurora52c200$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$968458.3%49 W · 35 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-13%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x59b2…b787backed Aurora78c199.99$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.91776.5%13 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.16per pick61cpaid+24.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x245e…3cedbacked Aurora42c193.57$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.222441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc209…7924backed Aurora79c189$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.1950757.4%291 W · 216 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa83f…b857backed Aurora47c188.99$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.166547.7%31 W · 34 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+34.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x022d…d8cebacked Aurora74c183.78$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.7812454%67 W · 57 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3741…517ebacked Tundra Esports28c180$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.437047%174 W · 196 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.