TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Tundra Esportsof Tundra Esports, Aurora
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$190,680
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$225,528

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $190,680 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 189 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4572…83ffbacked Tundra Esports59c22,397$13,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,172.8153451.7%276 W · 258 L+2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Tundra Esports59c21,436$12,637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,799.4142650%213 W · 213 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Aurora40c12,369$4,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,900.4596557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x90a1…73d6backed Aurora47c10,000$4,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,7002751.9%14 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58f8…dc70backed Aurora40c7,800$3,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,119.996261.3%38 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed Tundra Esports59c7,799$4,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,198.6954556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Aurora41c6,000$2,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,439.9922954.1%124 W · 105 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Aurora38c5,940$2,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,258.2271454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb517…434bbacked Aurora45c5,601$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50022842.1%96 W · 132 L-25.3wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-23.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x858e…1c3bbacked Aurora31c5,230$1,621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6211435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed Tundra Esports53c5,118$2,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,382.8213045.4%59 W · 71 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Aurora41c5,000$2,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,05019847%93 W · 105 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked Tundra Esports60c4,801$2,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,920.2339660.1%238 W · 158 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Aurora27c3,935$1,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,056.811,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked Tundra Esports57c3,783$2,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,619.2655157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b63…4acdbacked Aurora43c2,845$1,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,212.9716248.8%79 W · 83 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbf4…e3a6backed Aurora41c2,812$1,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,157.339345.2%42 W · 51 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed Aurora3c2,806$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.7540014.8%59 W · 341 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5b7…7ffabacked Aurora43c2,633$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1405642.9%24 W · 32 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc81…5df2backed Tundra Esports56c2,503$1,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,109.919557.9%55 W · 40 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Aurora2c2,500$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5992056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc83f…23e4backed Aurora41c2,490$1,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,020.91855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+30.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Tundra Esports60c2,210$1,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$893.8713455.2%74 W · 60 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Aurora46c2,083$958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95889741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Aurora41c2,023$821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$820.5864744.4%287 W · 360 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Tundra Esports53c1,773$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$833.539936.8%147 W · 252 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed Tundra Esports60c1,633$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$653.2820156.7%114 W · 87 L+0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Aurora1c1,600$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.456132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6503…0c3dbacked Aurora12c1,600$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1928461.9%52 W · 32 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb04b…e2d4backed Aurora28c1,500$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.516142.9%69 W · 92 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe5a…13f5backed Aurora43c1,477$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.745046.7%210 W · 240 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Tundra Esports62c1,453$906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.631,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Aurora30c1,450$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.51,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfbc2…514cbacked Aurora26c1,132$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29533845.6%154 W · 184 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0856…2d20backed Tundra Esports58c1,109$643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.621963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c29…21aabacked Aurora40c1,055$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.928060%48 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed Aurora42c1,049$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.960552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed Tundra Esports68c1,009$686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32353652.6%282 W · 254 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1318…0af2backed Aurora31c1,008$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.4817633.5%59 W · 117 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xebf5…b1d0backed Aurora20c1,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20028650%143 W · 143 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc192…086cbacked Aurora41c975.61$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40014538.6%56 W · 89 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00a1…5062backed Aurora44c917.14$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40021346.5%99 W · 114 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x930b…0223backed Aurora45c888.89$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40023459%138 W · 96 L+0.6wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b89…1069backed Aurora40c879.99$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35215653.8%84 W · 72 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a12…d212backed Aurora43c851.99$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.368957.3%51 W · 38 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00ce…3f01backed Aurora29c834.5$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.6615345.8%70 W · 83 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc49b…70c0backed Aurora41c829.99$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.2963032.5%205 W · 425 L+1.4wins0.00per pick32cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77f2…eec6backed Tundra Esports62c825.63$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.2455457.8%320 W · 234 L+12.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d03…9a41backed Tundra Esports59c800$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32723050.9%117 W · 113 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe375…dadfbacked Tundra Esports59c728.81$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.7312948.1%62 W · 67 L-9.3wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Aurora34c714.26$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.442,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x649d…ec03backed Aurora42c713.6$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3023941%16 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8120…54c9backed Aurora41c703.97$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2877941.8%33 W · 46 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Aurora35c700$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24579959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed Aurora43c699.99$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.9958744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fe6…5d3fbacked Aurora41c654.72$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.899430.9%29 W · 65 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-25.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Aurora2c637.35$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3533645.5%153 W · 183 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa83f…b857backed Aurora41c593.61$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.116547.7%31 W · 34 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+34.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefee…d2b3backed Aurora9c550.34$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5012256.6%69 W · 53 L-7.5wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2757…55f0backed Aurora41c519$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.7912454.8%68 W · 56 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3fb…19c0backed Aurora40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006735.8%24 W · 43 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40a2…19c9backed Aurora28c500$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1397950.6%40 W · 39 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x363a…4a8dbacked Tundra Esports60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2008258.5%48 W · 34 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4bfc…ce53backed Tundra Esports56c500$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22011647.4%55 W · 61 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-16.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked Aurora41c499.99$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.9988166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7353…b476backed Aurora41c487.8$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010645.3%48 W · 58 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9fb…95fbbacked Aurora41c487.8$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008854.5%48 W · 40 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Aurora42c480.62$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20060646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5554…98f9backed Tundra Esports65c460.86$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.866066.7%40 W · 20 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x453e…eabcbacked Tundra Esports79c460$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.378657%49 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Aurora42c436$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.121,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked Aurora47c427.14$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.9253844.4%239 W · 299 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x022d…d8cebacked Tundra Esports62c406.33$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.3312454%67 W · 57 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x216b…d5e6backed Tundra Esports67c400$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c52…e75fbacked Aurora17c400$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6913732.8%45 W · 92 L+8.0wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-15.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed Aurora43c380$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.461548.8%300 W · 315 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6fa…6f25backed Aurora37c370.51$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.092433.3%8 W · 16 L-3.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-36.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x58c9…e194backed Aurora42c357.14$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1504035%14 W · 26 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked Aurora44c354.59$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.0255251.6%285 W · 267 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81e4…532fbacked Aurora43c346.87$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.993740.5%15 W · 22 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-20.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x245e…3cedbacked Tundra Esports59c345.4$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.852441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x101f…b386backed Aurora6c316.67$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1932154.8%176 W · 145 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3eca…8602backed Aurora42c309.73$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.98683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick65cpaid+28.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8031…67e0backed Aurora40c300$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12173743.6%321 W · 416 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b12…5f8fbacked Tundra Esports58c291.67$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.529548.5%143 W · 152 L+0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Aurora9c285.91$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7380443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cab…a8cfbacked Tundra Esports65c283.45$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.2135370%247 W · 106 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Aurora42c280$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.62,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a65…ffcdbacked Aurora43c276.38$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.849051.1%46 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Aurora32c265.87$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.8891553.3%488 W · 427 L+48.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x309d…4287backed Tundra Esports78c250$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557648.7%37 W · 39 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1709…c148backed Aurora42c245$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.948352.4%253 W · 230 L-2.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdff0…f573backed Aurora43c244.19$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1058150.6%41 W · 40 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed Aurora42c240$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.680742.6%344 W · 463 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4b2…4ab2backed Tundra Esports57c200$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8628244%124 W · 158 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad25…5473backed Tundra Esports59c200$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$823842.1%16 W · 22 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0694…4a4ebacked Tundra Esports58c200$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe6a4…4249backed Tundra Esports79c195$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8719664.8%127 W · 69 L+0.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaae…ec88backed Aurora26c191.01$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5017146.8%80 W · 91 L+8.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xed1c…0379backed Tundra Esports56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.5712748%61 W · 66 L-7.8wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.