TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-04-11?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$494,259
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$468,628

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $494,259 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 213 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3fd9…1ef0backed Yes37c183,815$68,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68,119.222055%11 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No63c62,835$39,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,305.151,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d30…a42dbacked Yes41c47,884$19,637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,637.331560%9 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked No59c46,136$27,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,915.786465.6%42 W · 22 L+8.0wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+22.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x38f0…2768backed No63c39,104$24,506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,597.65966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+27.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No73c38,694$28,381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,313.043,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4408…1b6abacked Yes19c36,418$7,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,021.673743.2%16 W · 21 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Yes38c27,867$10,589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,589.37728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick52cpaid-49.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed No63c20,585$12,969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,616.457443.2%32 W · 42 L-9.2wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-21.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb20e…8eebbacked No63c14,111$8,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,220.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed No70c14,046$9,826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,219.8220845.7%95 W · 113 L-16.2wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-21.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Yes4c10,511$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.2214315.4%22 W · 121 L-8.0wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked No62c9,000$5,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,4204540%18 W · 27 L-4.2wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-17.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6551…e043backed Yes38c8,918$3,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,388.93728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-40.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7236…ea53backed No63c8,000$5,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,9606549.2%32 W · 33 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1a6…d584backed No62c6,306$3,888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,417.216744.8%30 W · 37 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x374a…03edbacked No63c6,000$3,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2205843.1%25 W · 33 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-15.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Yes18c5,794$1,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,023.9675142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f5e…e7dbbacked No62c5,568$3,452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,115.865549.1%27 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked Yes36c5,486$1,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,975.093250%16 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes41c5,198$2,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,130.9834547.5%164 W · 181 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No63c5,172$3,241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,931.1669851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee19…555ebacked Yes40c4,710$1,884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8845541.8%23 W · 32 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No79c4,545$3,611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$934.161,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed No61c4,138$2,524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,613.666058.3%35 W · 25 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4658…4131backed Yes37c4,054$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5002445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed No62c3,901$2,419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,482.416755.2%37 W · 30 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed No67c3,762$2,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,231.8318644.1%82 W · 104 L-10.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked No67c3,762$2,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,231.8320548.3%99 W · 106 L-10.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb13…5946backed No63c3,000$1,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1105944.1%26 W · 33 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Yes4c2,956$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.9181732.8%268 W · 549 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes41c2,894$1,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,186.4612651.6%65 W · 61 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd27d…a84fbacked No63c2,768$1,751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,017.866842.6%29 W · 39 L-7.0wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-25.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x72d7…1b97backed Yes8c2,694$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.598932.6%29 W · 60 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed No60c2,500$1,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,000.6429855.4%165 W · 133 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Yes38c2,007$763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$762.6515747.1%74 W · 83 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3388…61d7backed No62c1,976$1,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$760.46647%31 W · 35 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb49…1fbebacked Yes20c1,966$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.191225%3 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-62%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xb8c8…d8a4backed No60c1,952$1,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$780.82263.6%14 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes38c1,866$716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$716.4949647.4%235 W · 261 L+2.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90e0…ff4cbacked Yes3c1,642$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.626010%6 W · 54 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+119.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe02…1204backed No62c1,576$977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$598.931668.8%11 W · 5 L+3.4wins+0.22per pick47cpaid+30.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x44c7…e112backed Yes39c1,533$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.78250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ca1…aea0backed Yes39c1,226$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.337639.5%30 W · 46 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed No63c1,222$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.235870.7%41 W · 17 L+10.4wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+41.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x8f8b…9e2dbacked No62c1,186$729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.245745.6%26 W · 31 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8fd0…3373backed Yes41c1,176$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.31136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Yes38c1,100$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4184641.3%19 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked No61c1,085$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.4214652.7%77 W · 69 L+11.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+11.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xec56…1259backed Yes20c1,078$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.25944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick36cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x267a…79ebbacked No62c1,050$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.19250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Yes37c1,022$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.6763645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40b9…b002backed No59c1,010$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.13525.7%9 W · 26 L-4.0wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-35.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x835c…8e3bbacked Yes20c1,005$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.841844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85e5…9343backed Yes37c1,000$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37060%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes37c1,000$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37048146.4%223 W · 258 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe75e…4b67backed No63c1,000$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3706549.2%32 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x288a…0048backed No63c1,000$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3705349.1%26 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1e0…041bbacked No62c988$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.27050%35 W · 35 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28dc…a1f2backed No64c978.4$626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.228158%47 W · 34 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f6a…a7bfbacked No63c904.45$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.785745.6%26 W · 31 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe11…18cfbacked No63c830.68$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.358950.6%45 W · 44 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e05…2ebcbacked No63c830.68$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.358851.1%45 W · 43 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked No63c828.51$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.699459.6%56 W · 38 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x60ab…e297backed No63c800$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2965743.9%25 W · 32 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-16.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes4c798.44$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.099621.9%21 W · 75 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xade2…8757backed No62c788.13$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.58251.2%42 W · 40 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-18.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8098…5646backed No72c786.81$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.676453.1%34 W · 30 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked No71c786.79$562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.3517852.8%94 W · 84 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed No62c784.65$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.9517749.7%88 W · 89 L-10.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-18.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked No75c782.47$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.1714055%77 W · 63 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f9e…4c57backed Yes2c759.75$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.125127.5%14 W · 37 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-10.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa85b…eb0ebacked No59c754.53$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.565940.7%24 W · 35 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-13.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x47fb…0c7bbacked No63c731.79$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.768949.4%44 W · 45 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Yes3c708.06$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2448141.8%201 W · 280 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb61f…976abacked No72c680.91$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.951770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x033a…fc42backed Yes38c632.47$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.272050%10 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x033b…5e3fbacked No75c609.74$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.293562.9%22 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x606f…b043backed No63c600$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2226446.9%30 W · 34 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8acc…cc29backed No62c592.8$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.125149%25 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked No63c581.41$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.1256951.8%295 W · 274 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf68…ed10backed Yes4c579.1$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.16966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+19.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x64ae…ead9backed Yes21c535.8$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.636339.7%25 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc587…1630backed No61c526.48$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.323868.4%26 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Yes38c500$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19020645.6%94 W · 112 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fa1…6edbbacked No63c500$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1855646.4%26 W · 30 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1966…da9ebacked Yes40c499.99$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008050%40 W · 40 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb95…a5ccbacked No62c488.6$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.673557.1%20 W · 15 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yes17c474.27$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.242,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29f8…cfb1backed Yes41c470.54$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.925455.6%30 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x253d…348dbacked Yes41c436.96$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.161442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes39c404.57$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.1842046.4%195 W · 225 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed Yes37c400$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14823046.5%107 W · 123 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked No62c394.03$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.735349.1%26 W · 27 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaac8…b6f1backed Yes39c371.07$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.52751.9%14 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f04…4e5fbacked No62c354.1$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.22333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-46.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc826…fcb3backed Yes42c348.1$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.081163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick59cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed No59c342.37$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.3711148.6%54 W · 57 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes7c318.87$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5840744.5%181 W · 226 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked No63c304.23$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.6438646.9%181 W · 205 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.