TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin end in a draw?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$118,205
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$84,865

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,205 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4408…1b6abacked Yes29c35,745$10,366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,366.123743.2%16 W · 21 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes10c12,347$1,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,276.953,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5db5…1a50backed Yes21c11,414$2,381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,381.293324.2%8 W · 25 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-34.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Yes11c10,028$1,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,103.085945.8%27 W · 32 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked No71c10,000$7,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,90016652.4%87 W · 79 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7236…ea53backed No71c8,000$5,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3206549.2%32 W · 33 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x374a…03edbacked No71c6,000$4,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7405843.1%25 W · 33 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-15.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No77c4,405$3,395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,010.6475142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1a6…d584backed No71c3,132$2,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$908.196744.8%30 W · 37 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb13…5946backed No71c3,000$2,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8705944.1%26 W · 33 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No71c2,499$1,779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.521,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes11c2,007$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.8840744.5%181 W · 226 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed No71c2,000$1,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5805168.6%35 W · 16 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xee19…555ebacked Yes27c1,993$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.865541.8%23 W · 32 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0a3…e4b7backed Yes28c1,985$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.930%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb49…1fbebacked Yes29c1,651$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.71225%3 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-62%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yes11c1,290$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.22,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Yes12c1,280$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.0881732.8%268 W · 549 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec56…1259backed Yes29c1,258$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.84944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick36cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x835c…8e3bbacked Yes29c1,179$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.831844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked No72c1,075$774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.895151%26 W · 25 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe75e…4b67backed No71c1,000$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2906549.2%32 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3388…61d7backed No71c1,000$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2906647%31 W · 35 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x288a…0048backed No71c1,000$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2905349.1%26 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f6a…a7bfbacked No71c900$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2615745.6%26 W · 31 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc686…5a55backed Yes11c880.34$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.8424132%77 W · 164 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60ab…e297backed No71c800$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2325743.9%25 W · 32 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-16.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed No71c703.56$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20429855.4%165 W · 133 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x606f…b043backed No71c600$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1746446.9%30 W · 34 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f8b…9e2dbacked No71c600$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1745745.6%26 W · 31 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Yes11c566.62$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.7739857.5%229 W · 169 L+20.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No79c528.58$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.491,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Yes28c512.57$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.5215540.6%63 W · 92 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Yes11c500$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5514315.4%22 W · 121 L-8.0wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked No71c500$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14538646.9%181 W · 205 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1e0…041bbacked No71c500$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1457050%35 W · 35 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fa1…6edbbacked No71c500$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1455646.4%26 W · 30 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3319…ba79backed Yes29c451.83$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.031346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Yes24c444.03$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.1720645.6%94 W · 112 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked No72c407.61$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.1342046.4%195 W · 225 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f3…999fbacked Yes13c399.32$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.9111539.1%45 W · 70 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Yes11c324.77$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5414055%77 W · 63 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed No72c323.76$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.6533047.3%156 W · 174 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06e7…3acabacked Yes11c308.87$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.477749.4%38 W · 39 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x86be…4490backed Yes28c307.54$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.113941%16 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8acc…cc29backed No71c300$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$875149%25 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb435…b97cbacked No71c300$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$871952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9eb…aee9backed No71c299.99$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$871040%4 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-30.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x48aa…2eeebacked Yes29c278.77$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.841040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2482…a721backed Yes29c244.2$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.821533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-39.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec18…89ebbacked No75c223.1$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.77333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick65cpaid-55.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1068…84e1backed No71c200$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-29.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3177…cb28backed No72c199.99$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564845.8%22 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0ac…a2c9backed No72c189.64$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.1742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b05…7b7dbacked Yes29c176.85$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.29944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Yes13c173.33$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8620845.7%95 W · 113 L-16.2wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-21.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed No71c169.01$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.015942.4%25 W · 34 L-4.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-15.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x033b…5e3fbacked Yes11c159.95$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.63562.9%22 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a21…50d3backed Yes29c155.16$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453953.8%21 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b2c…5e10backed Yes29c132.06$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.311250.9%57 W · 55 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b14…3f2bbacked Yes29c124.86$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.21425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-53.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91f0…c57abacked No72c119.03$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.046457.8%37 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x981b…b8eabacked Yes28c102.51$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.78846.6%41 W · 47 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes28c102.51$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.76940.6%28 W · 41 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed No72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2821450%107 W · 107 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfccd…02d6backed No72c99.95$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.994671.7%33 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick69cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb14…0da7backed Yes19c97.51$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.534330.2%13 W · 30 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5218…48d9backed Yes29c94.42$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.38850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffff…4413backed Yes14c91.41$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5612141.3%50 W · 71 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-29.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e45…4815backed Yes29c90.95$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.38850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52cb…4007backed Yes28c90.78$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f12…95c3backed Yes21c90.73$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.05250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4266…0e08backed Yes28c85.43$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.92616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-69.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x061d…b355backed Yes28c85.43$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.92540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed No69c84.31$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.149647.4%235 W · 261 L+2.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Yes25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2014642.5%62 W · 84 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ad9…3cb4backed Yes28c79.62$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.291650%8 W · 8 L+3.0wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+69.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc285…d26ebacked Yes31c79.61$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.68616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-38.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x036c…e838backed Yes20c74.57$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.661136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf234…bbc5backed Yes29c69.89$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2740%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d94…cfabbacked Yes29c69.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.13425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-53.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd851…4616backed Yes26c62.65$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.291118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-39.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5f2…2512backed Yes29c61.64$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.872552%13 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked No72c60.71$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174757.4%27 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb651…4a7cbacked No72c59.51$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.671764.7%11 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed No71c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.522854.8%125 W · 103 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked No71c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.515454.5%84 W · 70 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2de8…1121backed Yes29c49.78$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.442556%14 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked Yes21c47.64$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.23450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65c9…0d57backed Yes22c46.92$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.51250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+49.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed No73c45.44$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2762452.6%328 W · 296 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddd7…1596backed No72c43.47$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.1725855.4%143 W · 115 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3088…3284backed Yes29c41.56$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7de…2b59backed Yes25c41.39$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.39837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed No71c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.613256.1%74 W · 58 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed No71c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.625659.4%152 W · 104 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb17…32b2backed No76c38.94$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.353158.1%18 W · 13 L+3.8wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+31.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x71eb…5ec6backed Yes29c34.96$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e9f…b23bbacked No73c29.51$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.977361.6%45 W · 28 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69ee…6e35backed No72c24$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7221051.4%108 W · 102 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.