TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on July 25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,622
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,539

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,622 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc9de…81d9backed Yes28c1,014$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$734.5442036.4%153 W · 267 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes31c719.7$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.281,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes54c469.2$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.6889544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No33c391.95$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.192,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No71c349.9$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.294,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes27c344.03$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.868,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No6c300.58$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.991,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No48c289.23$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.084,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No48c267.61$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.61,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No39c265.22$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.7388628.9%256 W · 630 L-22.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No68c207.52$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.724,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes74c200.34$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.786,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff1f…e2e6backed Yes16c200$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16814254.2%77 W · 65 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No65c167.57$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.4510,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No73c159.9$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.362,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed No73c150.86$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.0263255.7%352 W · 280 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa990…dc90backed Yes31c147.37$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.3759144.5%263 W · 328 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes27c139.22$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.811,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed Yes29c135.39$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.1389557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No50c123.6$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.491,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No71c120$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.61,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No72c111.28$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.0672624.8%180 W · 546 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes46c110.53$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.382,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked No61c106.6$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.4181558.5%477 W · 338 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes42c104$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.342,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fd6…5ab1backed No78c100$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.83562.9%22 W · 13 L-4.3wins-0.12per pick75cpaid-16.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb615…62b9backed No72c100$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.560550.7%307 W · 298 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No67c92.4$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.735,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes35c91.78$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.433,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No54c89$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.674,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No28c85.28$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No30c84.55$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.74,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb75f…f98bbacked Yes31c83.37$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.534647.8%22 W · 24 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-20.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x304b…a619backed No73c83.31$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.8227552%143 W · 132 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0066…20a1backed No74c80$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598865.9%58 W · 30 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No68c80$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.41,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes67c77.83$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.4219137.2%71 W · 120 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes43c75.8$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.383,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdba1…8239backed Yes74c70.79$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.612853.9%69 W · 59 L+10.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No67c67.45$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.223,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No46c64$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4480560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73e7…8b59backed Yes36c60$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.443441.5%180 W · 254 L+29.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No58c59.2$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.119,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes38c59.07$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.663,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf456…d568backed Yes34c58.6$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.621338%81 W · 132 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No65c56$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.644,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fff…7abfbacked Yes30c56$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.21758.8%10 W · 7 L+3.3wins+0.19per pick39cpaid+73.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xea31…a889backed No71c53.51$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7919965.3%130 W · 69 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick64cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed Yes32c50.9$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.771,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No70c47.44$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.214,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb38…467cbacked Yes77c46.67$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.524656.5%26 W · 20 L-0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb430…efc9backed Yes32c46.46$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.468231.7%26 W · 56 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes41c46.39$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.353,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf18c…18c1backed Yes31c46$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.7443959.5%261 W · 178 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf71a…fa40backed Yes41c45.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.2419042.6%81 W · 109 L-11.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes38c43.43$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.8462137.7%234 W · 387 L+0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2c1…b127backed Yes24c43.18$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.9417020%34 W · 136 L-21.0wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-50.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes33c42.59$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.722,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x607c…8e7ebacked No28c42.41$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1296015%144 W · 816 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes68c40.17$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.874,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked No56c40$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.432,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8adb…9e1dbacked Yes31c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.816946.7%79 W · 90 L-13.5wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-17.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xda33…cd9abacked Yes27c37.22$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.145666.1%37 W · 19 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed No68c34$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1254853.1%291 W · 257 L-28.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked No46c33.41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.51,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x2df9…4534backed No60c33.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2025747.5%122 W · 135 L+1.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa016…67c2backed No69c33.19$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2351156.6%289 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked No65c30.8$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0294066.4%624 W · 316 L+3.4wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No61c30$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.45,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No73c26$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.982,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes65c23.13$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.9999961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x850f…b208backed No68c22.05$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.999460.6%57 W · 37 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No61c20.78$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.632,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb924…0803backed No72c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.426067.3%175 W · 85 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa86f…022cbacked No72c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.439768.8%273 W · 124 L+11.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x813f…26ecbacked No73c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.680962.1%502 W · 307 L-22.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1894…a936backed Yes66c19.36$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.5366758%387 W · 280 L+48.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xacac…50fbbacked No68c19.14$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0228360.4%171 W · 112 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No60c18$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.83,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c18…32c3backed No66c18$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.881,04362.9%656 W · 387 L-11.9wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No67c15.78$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.574,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41e6…66b7backed No64c15.72$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0646857.3%268 W · 200 L-22.3wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa51…6199backed No68c14.71$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1062275.2%468 W · 154 L+15.5wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1c…3f79backed No75c13.8$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3549359%291 W · 202 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.