Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1dee5d0ada64742ca4a7a378caf2b572ec77e23a1810c07c6b90a3933c6643f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,622
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,539
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,622 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 28c | 1,014$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.54 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 31c | 719.7$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.28 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 54c | 469.2$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.68 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 33c | 391.95$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.19 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 349.9$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.29 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 27c | 344.03$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.86 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 300.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 48c | 289.23$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.08 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 48c | 267.61$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.6 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 39c | 265.22$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.73 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 68c | 207.52$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.72 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 74c | 200.34$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.78 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 167.57$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.45 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 73c | 159.9$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.36 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 73c | 150.86$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.02 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 31c | 147.37$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.37 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 27c | 139.22$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.81 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 29c | 135.39$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.13 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 50c | 123.6$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.49 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 71c | 120$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.6 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 72c | 111.28$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.06 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 46c | 110.53$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.38 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 61c | 106.6$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.41 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 42c | 104$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.34 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd6…5ab1backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.8 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 75cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 92.4$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.73 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 35c | 91.78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.43 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 54c | 89$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.67 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 28c | 85.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 30c | 84.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb75f…f98bbacked Yes | 31c | 83.37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.53 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 73c | 83.31$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.82 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…20a1backed No | 74c | 80$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 68c | 80$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 67c | 77.83$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 75.8$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.38 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed Yes | 74c | 70.79$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 128 | 53.9%69 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 67.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 46c | 64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 59.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 38c | 59.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.66 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed Yes | 34c | 58.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 56$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.64 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fff…7abfbacked Yes | 30c | 56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 71c | 53.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 32c | 50.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.77 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 47.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…467cbacked Yes | 77c | 46.67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb430…efc9backed Yes | 32c | 46.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 41c | 46.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 31c | 46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 41c | 45.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 38c | 43.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed Yes | 24c | 43.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 33c | 42.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked No | 28c | 42.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 68c | 40.17$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…cd9abacked Yes | 27c | 37.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 68c | 34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked No | 46c | 33.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 69c | 33.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 65c | 30.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 73c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 65c | 23.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…b208backed No | 68c | 22.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 61c | 20.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 66c | 19.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 68c | 19.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 60c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 66c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 15.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 64c | 15.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 68c | 14.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 75c | 13.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 102-103°F on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.