Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ed66623e057cbe8028e13c18f08c4fcce0e65dac95a62de5ebcdb838fbe6860
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- North Carolina Tar Heelsof Duke Blue Devils, North Carolina Tar Heels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $128,075
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $135,982
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $128,075 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Duke Blue Devils | 54c | 60,675$32,763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,762.76 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 46c | 50,062$23,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,034.2 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f4…544cbacked Duke Blue Devils | 53c | 23,431$12,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,318.31 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 47c | 18,280$8,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,630.77 | 906 | 45.4%411 W · 495 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 48c | 13,021$6,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,803.47 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 51c | 6,878$3,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,391.47 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Duke Blue Devils | 45c | 5,007$2,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,263.74 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56fc…733ebacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 55c | 5,000$2,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,250.62 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 47c | 4,000$1,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,119.99 | 146 | 47.9%70 W · 76 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…2adfbacked Duke Blue Devils | 53c | 3,775$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 572 | 48.1%275 W · 297 L | -27.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 46c | 3,616$1,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,935.49 | 277 | 55.2%153 W · 124 L | +19.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35f9…e09dbacked Duke Blue Devils | 53c | 2,487$1,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,312 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Duke Blue Devils | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Duke Blue Devils | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Duke Blue Devils | 50c | 1,989$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.37 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 45c | 1,842$835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,007.56 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1064…f153backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Duke Blue Devils | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Duke Blue Devils | 50c | 1,259$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.41 | 616 | 52.8%325 W · 291 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x561d…94bebacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 56c | 1,254$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.16 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.25per pick | 51cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Duke Blue Devils | 47c | 1,128$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.01 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.67 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf606…440abacked Duke Blue Devils | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.8 | 183 | 49.2%90 W · 93 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb98e…8823backed Duke Blue Devils | 50c | 990.63$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 144 | 47.2%68 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Duke Blue Devils | 49c | 816.59$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.13 | 746 | 49.2%367 W · 379 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa097…fba7backed Duke Blue Devils | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Duke Blue Devils | 47c | 689.44$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.25 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 54c | 666.67$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.67 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Duke Blue Devils | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 51c | 491.46$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.36 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Duke Blue Devils | 34c | 374.74$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.98 | 1,531 | 50.1%767 W · 764 L | +34.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 48c | 255.01$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.61 | 198 | 51.5%102 W · 96 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf988…d63bbacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 52c | 224$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.52 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 49c | 217.13$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.52 | 682 | 54.3%370 W · 312 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8c…d58cbacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 51c | 203$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.56 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff94…c347backed Duke Blue Devils | 50c | 174.98$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.92 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Duke Blue Devils | 52c | 164.17$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.37 | 741 | 52.6%390 W · 351 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 51c | 150$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 349 | 52.1%182 W · 167 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaa…3ea5backed Duke Blue Devils | 53c | 141.51$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Duke Blue Devils | 49c | 127$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.53 | 635 | 51.5%327 W · 308 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Duke Blue Devils | 52c | 126.94$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.53 | 998 | 48.4%483 W · 515 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e9…1c08backed Duke Blue Devils | 52c | 113.27$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.9 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff26…9f77backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Duke Blue Devils | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 891 | 46.2%412 W · 479 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.07 | 383 | 45.4%174 W · 209 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Duke Blue Devils | 48c | 81.39$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Duke Blue Devils | 40c | 60.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 576 | 55%317 W · 259 L | +17.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…1e06backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Duke Blue Devils | 54c | 57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 117 | 43.6%51 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 107 | 55.1%59 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c7…d11ebacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 48c | 40.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Duke Blue Devils | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 158 | 50%79 W · 79 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 52c | 33.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 191 | 38.2%73 W · 118 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8a…e03fbacked Duke Blue Devils | 52c | 32.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 70cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Duke Blue Devils | 52c | 30.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd730…1948backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 49c | 30.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 196 | 53.1%104 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5562…3b41backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 52c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3778…8604backed Duke Blue Devils | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | -6.6wins | -0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…e949backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 49c | 27.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…d34cbacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 50c | 24.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 136 | 51.5%70 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaae5…63a6backed Duke Blue Devils | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-5.5)this page
- Duke Blue Devils vs. North Carolina Tar HeelsNorth Carolina Tar Heels won
- Duke Blue Devils vs. North Carolina Tar Heels: O/U 151.5Under won
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-6.5)North Carolina Tar Heels won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.