TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Wuning 2: Fajing Sun vs Tai Sach

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Fajing Sunof Fajing Sun, Tai Sach
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$135,420
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$172,812

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $135,420 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf62d…2a10backed Tai Sach33c12,503$4,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,073.762842.9%12 W · 16 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-29.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x640f…8bcebacked Tai Sach2c8,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Tai Sach2c6,483$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.78,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6832…831fbacked Tai Sach27c6,389$1,695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,695.0129241.8%122 W · 170 L+0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b52…568ebacked Fajing Sun75c5,251$3,941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,310.4420459.3%121 W · 83 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Fajing Sun73c3,930$2,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,079.444,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Tai Sach5c3,734$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.821,44438%548 W · 896 L-46.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Fajing Sun79c2,500$1,975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.072,56163%1,613 W · 948 L-10.2wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked Tai Sach26c1,930$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.0992352.5%485 W · 438 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f76…aea6backed Fajing Sun77c1,766$1,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.241251%210 W · 202 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Fajing Sun69c1,727$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.243,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Tai Sach8c1,583$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.7811,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed Tai Sach24c1,507$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.7627733.6%93 W · 184 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e7f…a844backed Fajing Sun79c1,486$1,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.5874346.3%344 W · 399 L-12.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x896d…cd2cbacked Fajing Sun78c1,278$997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.1717357.8%100 W · 73 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c7a…7625backed Fajing Sun77c1,200$924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27626045.4%118 W · 142 L-12.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x00ce…3f01backed Fajing Sun76c1,106$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.367357.5%42 W · 31 L-0.2wins0.00per pick58cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Tai Sach2c1,046$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9156744.6%253 W · 314 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccbd…f1b7backed Tai Sach21c1,016$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.1711040.9%45 W · 65 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecae…b906backed Tai Sach23c999.97$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.991,02646.8%480 W · 546 L+14.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf402…ce7abacked Tai Sach12c940.19$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.6716242.6%69 W · 93 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd48d…5182backed Fajing Sun79c907.77$716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.9624558.8%144 W · 101 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e59…1520backed Tai Sach28c907.42$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.0830744.6%137 W · 170 L+0.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e11…e1f5backed Fajing Sun68c803.1$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.9921451.4%110 W · 104 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Tai Sach15c733.16$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.72,41750.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L+78.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b2…2171backed Tai Sach22c720.51$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.511225%3 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-42%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc4c9…9ee4backed Tai Sach27c687.51$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.5635730.5%109 W · 248 L-11.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42f3…5d8ebacked Fajing Sun79c666.48$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.618366.3%55 W · 28 L+0.2wins0.00per pick66cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7f9…29a9backed Tai Sach2c665.49$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5439154.2%212 W · 179 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x779a…b689backed Fajing Sun79c623.85$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.114162.4%88 W · 53 L-8.7wins-0.06per pick69cpaid-11.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Tai Sach22c587.05$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.6872132%231 W · 490 L-17.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7abf…8dd3backed Tai Sach2c563.29$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.875961%36 W · 23 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Tai Sach30c522.09$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.581,53240.7%624 W · 908 L-48.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x441d…7a4ebacked Tai Sach23c502.74$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.442532%8 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Tai Sach22c491.6$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.951,43524.3%348 W · 1,087 L-36.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked Tai Sach22c455.95$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.3129952.2%156 W · 143 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e2f…9123backed Fajing Sun65c447.48$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.6231656.3%178 W · 138 L+19.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd650…8d74backed Tai Sach33c409.23$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.363663.9%23 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick62cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d87…8dbbbacked Tai Sach14c339.15$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.7936944.4%164 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc812…cb56backed Tai Sach4c333.65$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.51450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+16.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5647…8237backed Fajing Sun77c333$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.5916560%99 W · 66 L+0.5wins0.00per pick60cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc866…8c6dbacked Tai Sach15c331.72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1127247.4%129 W · 143 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Fajing Sun78c318.04$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.9797745.2%442 W · 535 L-0.9wins0.00per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84bd…34d0backed Tai Sach23c315.61$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.9910829.6%32 W · 76 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+15.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Tai Sach19c311.13$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.554,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f6d…3070backed Fajing Sun65c284.16$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.4530844.5%137 W · 171 L+1.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ae7…2b0dbacked Tai Sach4c283.91$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.73250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbef…0c11backed Fajing Sun72c273.11$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.4768157.6%392 W · 289 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e1…f17fbacked Fajing Sun77c256.16$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.9224463.5%155 W · 89 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f34…ed6abacked Tai Sach23c249.46$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1339751.4%204 W · 193 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b45…ac9fbacked Tai Sach15c228.17$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5450644.9%227 W · 279 L-12.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc84f…c9ecbacked Fajing Sun65c214.73$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.164456.8%25 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5471…a236backed Tai Sach14c213.51$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9840548.1%195 W · 210 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Tai Sach35c204.46$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.84,42651.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L+136.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22d2…82d7backed Fajing Sun65c200.42$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.1527940.1%112 W · 167 L-11.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6932…6878backed Tai Sach22c200$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4486835.4%307 W · 561 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb69…c3e5backed Fajing Sun76c200$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481,07655.5%597 W · 479 L+8.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x473f…9892backed Fajing Sun78c192.84$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.844055%22 W · 18 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd3a…91fdbacked Fajing Sun67c184.9$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.431,01846.8%476 W · 542 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7509…b7c8backed Fajing Sun56c178.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.53574.3%26 W · 9 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick66cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe031…5c08backed Tai Sach9c168.21$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6273549.8%366 W · 369 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfa8…6e47backed Fajing Sun64c152.88$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.0410057%57 W · 43 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Fajing Sun70c152.71$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.899,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x91d9…13f4backed Fajing Sun65c151.69$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.8214851.4%76 W · 72 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b64…a351backed Fajing Sun78c146.75$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.2935268.2%240 W · 112 L-0.5wins0.00per pick68cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x865e…0915backed Fajing Sun69c135$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.31656.3%9 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xadaf…aefdbacked Tai Sach30c133.16$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9546040%184 W · 276 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Fajing Sun73c126.19$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.0738955.3%215 W · 174 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cc1…b39cbacked Fajing Sun79c124.99$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.256100%6 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x012d…9db6backed Fajing Sun78c110.02$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.1784968.4%581 W · 268 L+25.9wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Tai Sach28c102$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.133,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x033a…586dbacked Fajing Sun67c100.95$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.319565.3%62 W · 33 L+7.9wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+10.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Tai Sach22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.53,90150.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L-13.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…2b70backed Fajing Sun53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.539941.9%167 W · 232 L+13.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Fajing Sun71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.314,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4e0…7387backed Fajing Sun75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254143.9%18 W · 23 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Tai Sach32c97.84$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.311,61550.6%817 W · 798 L-17.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c37…39babacked Tai Sach37c96.98$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.041225%3 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-54.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2849…3d49backed Tai Sach34c96.05$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7623865.5%156 W · 82 L+31.3wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+20%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x2b08…aaf4backed Tai Sach23c93.39$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4810842.6%46 W · 62 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Fajing Sun80c92.63$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.531,92355.4%1,066 W · 857 L-44.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x26d0…566ebacked Fajing Sun65c90.93$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.2248552.4%254 W · 231 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb77…1c78backed Fajing Sun65c89.95$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.212,15137.3%802 W · 1,349 L-27.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46ea…d849backed Fajing Sun77c89.65$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6216370.6%115 W · 48 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6001…0457backed Tai Sach21c75.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9618447.3%87 W · 97 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+2.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed Fajing Sun77c74.76$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.111,27661%778 W · 498 L+27.7wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c39…442dbacked Tai Sach23c73.79$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0456817.4%99 W · 469 L-74.2wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-46.8%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x46dc…92c3backed Fajing Sun74c68.09$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6623949.4%118 W · 121 L+7.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2d3…aafbbacked Fajing Sun79c63.93$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.475549.1%27 W · 28 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56e4…6ee4backed Fajing Sun69c61.83$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1216152.8%85 W · 76 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a08…64a7backed Fajing Sun78c61.5$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.533633.3%12 W · 24 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-25.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Tai Sach34c59.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3245051.8%233 W · 217 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91e0…26a0backed Fajing Sun52c59$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.4225737%95 W · 162 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Tai Sach22c57.18$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.441,02833.6%345 W · 683 L-3.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ca…e926backed Fajing Sun66c54.92$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.679243.5%40 W · 52 L-6.7wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-17.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc8ed…72efbacked Fajing Sun79c54.53$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4538754.3%210 W · 177 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cdf…8666backed Fajing Sun54c54$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.8424632.9%81 W · 165 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6281…e326backed Fajing Sun76c53.49$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.844562.2%28 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8c6…737abacked Fajing Sun70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1524348.1%117 W · 126 L-25.0wins-0.10per pick58cpaid-21.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Tai Sach20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,48932.6%486 W · 1,003 L+22.2wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.