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CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Inner Circle Esportsof Vitality, Inner Circle Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$341,858
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$383,557

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $341,858 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 293 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa103…1c14backed Inner Circle Esports25c9,471$2,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,103.436250%31 W · 31 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+16.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x74b7…8b0bbacked Vitality10c8,660$892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$891.933531.4%11 W · 24 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-23.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x67ba…246cbacked Inner Circle Esports76c7,592$5,807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,785.182245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-15.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Vitality69c7,397$5,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,108.2746057.2%263 W · 197 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-6.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4e7…6a52backed Inner Circle Esports53c7,000$3,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,289.992356.5%13 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+15.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Inner Circle Esports34c5,899$1,989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,910.1628056.1%157 W · 123 L+19.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+13.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Vitality25c5,399$1,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,337.052,73230.3%829 W · 1,903 L-120.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-30.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfeb9…95c9backed Vitality41c5,239$2,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,165.4956832.4%184 W · 384 L-27.8wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x994e…6136backed Vitality74c5,000$3,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,7004551.1%23 W · 22 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-21.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Vitality59c3,857$2,287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,287.381045.9%372 W · 438 L-24.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-17.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa45f…4e8dbacked Vitality58c3,787$2,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,196.452025%5 W · 15 L-5.1wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-56.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x0063…2dd2backed Inner Circle Esports50c3,479$1,723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,756.4750564.8%327 W · 178 L+59.3wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+11.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Inner Circle Esports43c3,269$1,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,848.161,28247.3%607 W · 675 L+22.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d7e…2ef7backed Vitality63c3,263$2,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,041.3619660.2%118 W · 78 L+0.2wins0.00per pick60cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Vitality20c2,932$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.73,70629.5%1,093 W · 2,613 L-297.7wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-43.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd599…bf55backed Vitality40c2,874$1,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1397638.2%29 W · 47 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-12.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Inner Circle Esports49c2,784$1,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,406.1989748.6%436 W · 461 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0562…18a4backed Vitality41c2,705$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10021747%102 W · 115 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Vitality75c2,444$1,821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,821.246058.7%270 W · 190 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc910…8bbcbacked Vitality42c2,387$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0007844.9%35 W · 43 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6876…8dc9backed Inner Circle Esports76c2,375$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.77650%3 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-32.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x64f4…b38ebacked Inner Circle Esports43c2,314$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,314.2715548.4%75 W · 80 L+9.4wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+12.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xafcb…df99backed Inner Circle Esports52c2,239$1,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,074.941118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick40cpaid-70.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Vitality76c2,000$1,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,52078457.3%449 W · 335 L+0.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85fb…89babacked Vitality74c2,000$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,48013742.3%58 W · 79 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4800…557cbacked Inner Circle Esports26c1,954$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,445.85742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+74.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Inner Circle Esports38c1,765$669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,095.721,63645.9%751 W · 885 L+35.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Inner Circle Esports25c1,701$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,279.242,69752.1%1,405 W · 1,292 L+30.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59cb…57d1backed Vitality61c1,685$1,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,025.446544.6%29 W · 36 L-6.1wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-20.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked Vitality58c1,681$977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$976.5933449.1%164 W · 170 L-11.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8a6…5d97backed Vitality62c1,613$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.065650%28 W · 28 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Vitality31c1,561$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.055,46631.5%1,722 W · 3,744 L-400.1wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7786…c005backed Vitality47c1,500$701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70123041.3%95 W · 135 L-15.5wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-17.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2723…8d2dbacked Vitality14c1,473$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+135%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e52…eb43backed Inner Circle Esports53c1,418$751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.395972.9%43 W · 16 L+9.6wins+0.16per pick57cpaid+36.1%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xae2b…9cc3backed Inner Circle Esports24c1,405$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,067.824253.3%129 W · 113 L+10.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+14.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b96…4389backed Vitality66c1,399$917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$916.5540557.3%232 W · 173 L-17.4wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Inner Circle Esports54c1,388$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643.2742454.7%232 W · 192 L+28.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe2d0…7bbfbacked Vitality31c1,287$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.987236.1%26 W · 46 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-14.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Inner Circle Esports24c1,262$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$959.1259134.7%205 W · 386 L-14.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d35…b406backed Vitality41c1,260$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.66036.7%22 W · 38 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e3d…8554backed Vitality49c1,210$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.22250%11 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e2c…787cbacked Vitality39c1,195$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.8493645.3%424 W · 512 L+1.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Inner Circle Esports56c1,108$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.991,07849.5%534 W · 544 L+42.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x215a…7275backed Vitality21c1,100$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2365633.9%19 W · 37 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed Inner Circle Esports48c1,070$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.140768.1%277 W · 130 L+28.2wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+3.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked Inner Circle Esports22c1,041$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$811.6441640.4%168 W · 248 L-1.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Vitality39c1,024$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.376,54042.9%2,805 W · 3,735 L-81.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-22%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae1c…50b4backed Vitality57c1,011$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.85580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+45%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Vitality16c1,008$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.9255137.2%205 W · 346 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Inner Circle Esports48c1,006$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.8853449.6%265 W · 269 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed Vitality72c1,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72039145.3%177 W · 214 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5502…d440backed Vitality64c999.99$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.991827.8%5 W · 13 L-3.7wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-53.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x51c7…98aabacked Inner Circle Esports50c990.54$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.5425561.6%157 W · 98 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Vitality32c953.6$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.545,18337.1%1,924 W · 3,259 L-274.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3885…2cd8backed Vitality78c940.56$734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$733.6417352.6%91 W · 82 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Vitality75c909$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68487145.9%400 W · 471 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Vitality54c883.3$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.413,37545.7%1,542 W · 1,833 L-84.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6421…045dbacked Inner Circle Esports58c831.45$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.4517549.7%87 W · 88 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8a8…bdc6backed Vitality62c808.66$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49912352.8%65 W · 58 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96d7…3a17backed Vitality33c793.62$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2582445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2829…12a0backed Vitality75c707.19$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.391533.3%5 W · 10 L-3.6wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-46.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8c33…b8f1backed Inner Circle Esports25c700.26$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.191450%7 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+13%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0c63…3cbbbacked Vitality64c690.93$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.8147065.5%308 W · 162 L+0.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Inner Circle Esports24c690.34$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521.741,75647.3%830 W · 926 L+8.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc51f…5dc6backed Inner Circle Esports22c680.1$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.4815153%80 W · 71 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe81d…16bfbacked Vitality78c666$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.486844.1%30 W · 38 L-5.4wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-13.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x997c…51f3backed Vitality17c660.69$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.7230551.5%157 W · 148 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4734…4ed5backed Vitality62c649.66$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.951250%6 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe2b…20e4backed Vitality66c637$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.429735.1%34 W · 63 L-5.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-26.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Vitality47c602$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.8982851.9%430 W · 398 L-3.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Inner Circle Esports79c577.06$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.291,98442.2%838 W · 1,146 L-74.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-20.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Vitality40c562.39$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.694,87943.4%2,116 W · 2,763 L-93.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-22.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8941…3126backed Vitality39c561.13$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22016133.5%54 W · 107 L-7.7wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-21.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa62b…58aabacked Vitality21c549.66$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.7819346.6%90 W · 103 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1eab…4822backed Inner Circle Esports60c536.73$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.7312151.2%62 W · 59 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c15…45a0backed Inner Circle Esports37c533.84$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.0115343.1%66 W · 87 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Vitality50c525.6$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2638,13350.3%4,091 W · 4,042 L+169.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc57…2b3cbacked Inner Circle Esports59c508.47$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.4718557.3%106 W · 79 L+8.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa76e…f812backed Vitality20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006547.7%31 W · 34 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0bd…3338backed Vitality40c499.99$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002740.7%11 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-15.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd786…59b8backed Vitality63c498.42$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.3513939.6%55 W · 84 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f17…7035backed Inner Circle Esports62c483.4$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.6946965.7%308 W · 161 L+20.3wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc011…0a62backed Vitality45c466.75$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21016853.6%90 W · 78 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f5b…2501backed Vitality56c436.92$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.674337.2%16 W · 27 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1947…02b4backed Vitality48c416.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20011039.1%43 W · 67 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x72c8…a74cbacked Vitality65c403.42$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.221010%1 W · 9 L-3.2wins-0.32per pick42cpaid-71.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed Vitality75c400$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,20554.5%657 W · 548 L-37.9wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb75b…e377backed Vitality72c400$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28818044.4%80 W · 100 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5edc…fd27backed Vitality13c390.84$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick14cpaid-24.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c2d…dd1ebacked Inner Circle Esports70c388.85$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.5840670.7%287 W · 119 L+40.0wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+14.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa058…c0ddbacked Vitality33c366.86$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.04933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+89.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Inner Circle Esports45c360.01$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.2676553.3%408 W · 357 L+26.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Inner Circle Esports58c355.76$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.632,13742%897 W · 1,240 L-48.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Inner Circle Esports24c347.53$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.4938841.8%162 W · 226 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Inner Circle Esports61c342$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.4144139.2%173 W · 268 L-15.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b5f…3492backed Vitality70c334.26$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23314753.1%78 W · 69 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc670…b781backed Inner Circle Esports24c324.3$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.8217946.4%83 W · 96 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+23%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x65fa…4c6abacked Vitality68c322.05$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22013163.4%83 W · 48 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed Inner Circle Esports63c316$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.921,20642%506 W · 700 L-20.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.