TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Winston-Salem Open: James Duckworth vs Mariano Navone

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
James Duckworthof James Duckworth, Mariano Navone
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$95,327
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$94,018

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,327 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 157 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf3a1…bf4bbacked Mariano Navone53c27,778$14,718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,718.1611450.9%58 W · 56 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed James Duckworth47c11,872$5,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,292.371,17846.3%545 W · 633 L+0.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed James Duckworth48c9,069$4,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,723.828,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6485…a265backed James Duckworth47c8,993$4,227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,766.512,28152%1,187 W · 1,094 L+82.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed James Duckworth52c7,939$4,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,773.78,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Mariano Navone40c5,441$2,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,151.628,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Mariano Navone53c3,979$2,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,107.152,85439.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L-83.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f07…9d0fbacked Mariano Navone57c3,300$1,869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,868.9970652.7%372 W · 334 L-19.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked James Duckworth51c2,737$1,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,344.7111,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb399…608ebacked Mariano Navone53c2,374$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2501050%5 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x240a…814cbacked James Duckworth42c2,317$973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,343.975364.2%34 W · 19 L+5.9wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+24.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xe9f5…3e7abacked Mariano Navone51c2,316$1,181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,181.1610349.5%51 W · 52 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf67…1db4backed James Duckworth41c2,195$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,295.12742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeea3…a6a2backed James Duckworth63c2,111$1,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$775.683,06857.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L+173.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Mariano Navone60c2,000$1,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,198.693,25648.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L-53.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf12f…b30fbacked Mariano Navone42c1,916$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80070041.1%288 W · 412 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed James Duckworth60c1,820$1,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$729.054,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed James Duckworth63c1,587$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.360053.8%323 W · 277 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c99…8b23backed James Duckworth65c1,550$1,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.3716160.2%97 W · 64 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b10…acabbacked Mariano Navone51c1,545$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787.9511048.2%53 W · 57 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3635…053abacked James Duckworth65c1,488$967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.791573.3%11 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick66cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Mariano Navone48c1,357$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647.972,76647.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked James Duckworth39c1,256$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$766.1633235.2%117 W · 215 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc16…40a5backed Mariano Navone35c1,127$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001,11842.8%479 W · 639 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf2d…54cfbacked Mariano Navone34c1,097$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.581241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde80…d8b9backed Mariano Navone31c1,065$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3307630.3%23 W · 53 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-33.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Mariano Navone32c953.53$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.581,36543.3%591 W · 774 L-26.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed James Duckworth51c860.47$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.555,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked James Duckworth61c756.15$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.981,70844.8%766 W · 942 L-18.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b14…3ca3backed Mariano Navone44c698.22$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.2349447.2%233 W · 261 L+12.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1350…7169backed Mariano Navone50c662.77$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.317035.7%25 W · 45 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+23.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f17…0724backed James Duckworth63c624.62$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.1170254.4%382 W · 320 L+40.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Mariano Navone17c604.48$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.973,60542.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L-43.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd335…fe54backed Mariano Navone55c544.26$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30011933.6%40 W · 79 L+0.3wins0.00per pick33cpaid+7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a92…6b00backed Mariano Navone25c524$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.4647651.9%247 W · 229 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd058…d8fcbacked Mariano Navone58c508.47$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.914452.3%23 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Mariano Navone60c500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30089850.1%450 W · 448 L-20.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Mariano Navone31c460.34$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.091,62449.8%809 W · 815 L-9.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefd1…c520backed Mariano Navone45c444.44$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030948.9%151 W · 158 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x365f…706abacked Mariano Navone42c436.05$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.171,79546.6%837 W · 958 L+20.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecc5…5fdebacked Mariano Navone60c400$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24024344%107 W · 136 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked James Duckworth61c379$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.024,18544.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L+14.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked James Duckworth40c357.81$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.691,72948.9%845 W · 884 L+53.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Mariano Navone37c344.91$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.864,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2dca…da77backed Mariano Navone32c312.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10016257.4%93 W · 69 L+13.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+18%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc444…416cbacked Mariano Navone36c269.44$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b3…145dbacked Mariano Navone55c218.18$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12091754%495 W · 422 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda79…9050backed Mariano Navone57c210.53$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12013531.9%43 W · 92 L+0.6wins0.00per pick31cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9fc…2b03backed Mariano Navone34c207.37$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701540%6 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x805f…54a4backed James Duckworth66c200$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684153.7%22 W · 19 L-0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid+11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed99…2677backed Mariano Navone53c196.23$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10414748.3%71 W · 76 L-9.1wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-14.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x125a…df71backed Mariano Navone31c192.36$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.371,02149.8%508 W · 513 L+42.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8411…b4c4backed Mariano Navone57c184.21$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1055957.6%34 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cba…b694backed Mariano Navone36c178.07$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.381,42944.2%631 W · 798 L-23.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e0e…1cebbacked Mariano Navone31c161.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020939.7%83 W · 126 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3252…1d21backed Mariano Navone31c160.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9152341.5%217 W · 306 L-12.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a1c…eb60backed Mariano Navone47c159.15$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d6d…f2b4backed Mariano Navone63c158.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10047058.5%275 W · 195 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed James Duckworth40c141.48$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.891,67948.1%808 W · 871 L+36.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdff…91f7backed Mariano Navone57c140.35$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804740.4%19 W · 28 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebde…1de0backed Mariano Navone27c140$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.189134.3%306 W · 585 L-40.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-22.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x18d8…da3bbacked Mariano Navone35c137.38$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0427448.5%133 W · 141 L+24.3wins+0.09per pick40cpaid+18.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Mariano Navone58c136.58$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.214,24152.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L+65.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5da…5fb9backed Mariano Navone57c131.58$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7512634.9%44 W · 82 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d98…fe98backed Mariano Navone57c131.58$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7515133.8%51 W · 100 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd215…757abacked Mariano Navone38c129.97$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.8928954.3%157 W · 132 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ca1…fc25backed James Duckworth50c120.94$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.9312661.1%77 W · 49 L+10.0wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+7.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x335a…e3eebacked Mariano Navone36c111.9$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.322133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0313…a2c7backed Mariano Navone57c102.84$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+21.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x25bf…ef3dbacked Mariano Navone42c102.25$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7329552.2%154 W · 141 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bdc…e345backed James Duckworth69c102$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.6216943.8%74 W · 95 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cb2…f12fbacked Mariano Navone52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5236661.7%226 W · 140 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47f6…b051backed Mariano Navone53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5341644.5%185 W · 231 L-1.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid+11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbaf8…27cfbacked James Duckworth40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603470.6%24 W · 10 L+7.2wins+0.21per pick49cpaid+39.8%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Mariano Navone60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601,95548%939 W · 1,016 L+16.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e3…f1bdbacked James Duckworth56c99.69$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.7388358.2%514 W · 369 L+12.9wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x40e9…494fbacked Mariano Navone34c98.45$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0344729.3%131 W · 316 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-33.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3da8…be26backed James Duckworth43c97$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.2969545.8%318 W · 377 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8526…72aabacked Mariano Navone35c95.26$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3473648.1%354 W · 382 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd7e…c45cbacked Mariano Navone55c90.91$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5012833.6%43 W · 85 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+13.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed James Duckworth39c90.9$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.412,46238.5%948 W · 1,514 L+93.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed James Duckworth70c89.69$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.752,04453.8%1,100 W · 944 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbdd5…5604backed Mariano Navone57c87.72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506453.1%34 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe949…83f3backed Mariano Navone57c87.72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505154.9%28 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81bd…3e74backed Mariano Navone60c81.98$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.19366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+31.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Mariano Navone37c77.07$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.741,71053.7%918 W · 792 L+30.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e50…c665backed Mariano Navone36c72.22$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2635039.4%138 W · 212 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2326…b627backed James Duckworth70c65.83$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.751,25665.4%821 W · 435 L+11.4wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5803…3f3fbacked Mariano Navone39c64.12$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0185348.9%417 W · 436 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa192…e1d4backed Mariano Navone57c61.4$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355251.9%27 W · 25 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeeaa…15cebacked James Duckworth49c61.25$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.2541440.3%167 W · 247 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53c8…7f69backed James Duckworth41c60.98$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.981154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+33.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa04…796bbacked James Duckworth42c60$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.8757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+31.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed James Duckworth62c56.97$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.576,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4810…9802backed Mariano Navone57c55.25$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.495550.9%28 W · 27 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbd7…1c4fbacked Mariano Navone57c52.63$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3015534.8%54 W · 101 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9538…96f4backed Mariano Navone57c52.63$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3012031.7%38 W · 82 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8178…3443backed Mariano Navone57c52.63$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305251.9%27 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e87…91cbbacked Mariano Navone57c52.63$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308142%34 W · 47 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed James Duckworth40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305,26128.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L-19.4wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.