Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20ed7405c72327cdbbcf1ea52f7e53f604c5512ab4fbc16faf2652970e2601e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,540
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,034
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,540 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 49c | 2,662$1,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,358.15 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 51c | 834.66$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.39 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 64c | 678.64$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.14 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 43c | 562.72$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.35 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 39c | 527.68$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.55 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 25c | 499.19$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.49 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 38c | 453.58$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.14 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 49c | 436.47$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.67 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 51c | 344$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.44 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 60c | 318.01$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.66 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 61c | 317$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.13 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 48c | 305.29$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.42 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 52c | 293$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.36 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 65c | 270$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.65 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 52c | 250$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 52c | 250$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes | 53c | 212.04$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.68 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 34c | 198$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.83 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 33c | 190.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.79 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 46c | 182.95$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.79 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…018fbacked Yes | 56c | 173.19$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.2 | 80 | 28.8%23 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b29…f288backed Yes | 60c | 130.07$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.07 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 55c | 121.02$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.02 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 30c | 118$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 57c | 115.86$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.87 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Yes | 55c | 114.69$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.96 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…26aabacked No | 38c | 112.5$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.93 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 44c | 111$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 78c | 110.51$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 67c | 103.54$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.27 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.05 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 38c | 99.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e7…a1b8backed No | 51c | 98.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 30c | 94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 63c | 90.74$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.91 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 52c | 88$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 57c | 83.7$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.17 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 56c | 77.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.36 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…a5fbbacked Yes | 53c | 76.74$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.13 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 54c | 75.68$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.72 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 63c | 74.35$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 34c | 72.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.32 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 56c | 69.35$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 60c | 60.56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 44c | 58.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 56c | 57.63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe7…88e7backed No | 45c | 55.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 58c | 52.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 35c | 51.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd926…e9cebacked No | 42c | 47.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 45c | 47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 50c | 42.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 37c | 42.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 50c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 45c | 41.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa052…925abacked No | 50c | 40.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc62f…1781backed Yes | 50c | 40.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…adcabacked No | 73c | 37.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 37c | 36.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 47c | 35.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce0c…f7edbacked No | 36c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 32.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd836…8811backed No | 47c | 32.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 75c | 32.12$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 62c | 31.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca84…6f8dbacked No | 40c | 30.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 40c | 29.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48c0…53d5backed Yes | 57c | 28.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 53c | 28.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa922…9a52backed Yes | 72c | 26.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 65c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x982c…0d6ebacked Yes | 60c | 24.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 48c | 23.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 53c | 23.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 62c | 22.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 72c | 21.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 54c | 21.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e71…c3b3backed Yes | 61c | 21.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.