TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 8?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,540
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,034

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,540 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc9de…81d9backed Yes49c2,662$1,304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,358.1542036.4%153 W · 267 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes51c834.66$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.391,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes64c678.64$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.144,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No43c562.72$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.351,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No39c527.68$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.558,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No25c499.19$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.494,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No38c453.58$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.145,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No49c436.47$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.672,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No51c344$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.442,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes60c318.01$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.668,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes61c317$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.1322740.5%92 W · 135 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1917…138bbacked No48c305.29$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.4233746.9%158 W · 179 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No52c293$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.363,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes65c270$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.651,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x655c…1a00backed No52c250$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13036150.4%182 W · 179 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39b4…fc14backed No52c250$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13020347.8%97 W · 106 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes53c212.04$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.6815553.5%83 W · 72 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed No34c198$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.831,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No33c190.99$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.7912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No46c182.95$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.794,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc5f…018fbacked Yes56c173.19$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.28028.8%23 W · 57 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b29…f288backed Yes60c130.07$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.0710044%44 W · 56 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes55c121.02$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.021,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No30c118$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.41,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes57c115.86$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.8723731.6%75 W · 162 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92aa…0341backed Yes55c114.69$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.967926.6%21 W · 58 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-33%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x672f…26aabacked No38c112.5$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.932152.4%11 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick62cpaid-17.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked No44c111$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5163143.1%272 W · 359 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes78c110.51$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.3165749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed Yes67c103.54$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.2770741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.0568335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No38c99.09$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.229,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0e7…a1b8backed No51c98.03$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-54.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No30c94$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.865,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes63c90.74$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.9146743.7%204 W · 263 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No52c88$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.7697152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6120…f1febacked Yes57c83.7$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.1782742.8%354 W · 473 L+2.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e28…4983backed No37c81.08$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3033654.2%182 W · 154 L-9.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes62c80.65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.6564446.4%299 W · 345 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked Yes56c77.99$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.3654253%287 W · 255 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff18…a5fbbacked Yes53c76.74$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.137835.9%28 W · 50 L-7.9wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-30.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes54c75.68$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.722,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes63c74.35$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.625,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes34c72.69$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.321,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed Yes56c69.35$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.751,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed Yes60c60.56$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.2555954.7%306 W · 253 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c1b…d915backed Yes59c60$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.626344.9%118 W · 145 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4680050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc865…7477backed No44c58.3$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7817633.5%59 W · 117 L-34.2wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-41.2%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes56c57.63$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.656,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcfe7…88e7backed No45c55.54$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251850%9 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-23.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed Yes58c52.36$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.021,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No35c51.44$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes53c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.585049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd926…e9cebacked No42c47.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.042653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No45c47$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.154,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed Yes50c42.92$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.461,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No37c42.47$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.711,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No50c42$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7958358%338 W · 245 L-2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No45c41.39$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.751,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa052…925abacked No50c40.87$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.622227.3%6 W · 16 L-3.2wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-28.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc62f…1781backed Yes50c40.23$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.12944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17f2…adcabacked No73c37.59$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4411163.1%70 W · 41 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8e…aa69backed No37c36.23$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4130849%151 W · 157 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No47c35.28$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.647136.5%172 W · 299 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xce0c…f7edbacked No36c35$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.62462.5%15 W · 9 L+3.0wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+25.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No38c32.94$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xd836…8811backed No47c32.29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.25850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes75c32.12$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.171,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf92…150fbacked Yes62c31.25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9316440.2%66 W · 98 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca84…6f8dbacked No40c30.89$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.454450%22 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No42c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.594,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed Yes56c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.289557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c29.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.22,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed No40c29.55$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9263255.7%352 W · 280 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48c0…53d5backed Yes57c28.51$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.267847.4%37 W · 41 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa990…dc90backed Yes53c28.07$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.0759144.5%263 W · 328 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa922…9a52backed Yes72c26.37$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.437452.7%39 W · 35 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-15.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes65c26$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.178663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x982c…0d6ebacked Yes60c24.52$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No48c23.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5286949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed Yes53c23.3$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes62c22.26$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4649551.9%257 W · 238 L-25.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4264…1706backed Yes72c21.58$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9840871.8%293 W · 115 L-0.8wins0.00per pick72cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes54c21.5$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.912,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e71…c3b3backed Yes61c21.31$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.312653.8%14 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed No53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.61,01058.1%587 W · 423 L-34.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb924…0803backed No51c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.226067.3%175 W · 85 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa86f…022cbacked No51c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.239768.8%273 W · 124 L+11.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x351a…f836backed Yes70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$628649.3%141 W · 145 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No63c19.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.61,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.