AI · resolved market
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x213a6b889a3cc9bc7c1db6119f840e80a9edfd9272d6dc4903270d32b458de4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $111,925
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,193
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,925 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 2c | 15,693$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.78 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed No | 4c | 6,815$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.53 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d48…6573backed No | 3c | 4,696$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 4,000$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c3…bdbbbacked No | 1c | 2,771$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6d…b3febacked No | 2c | 2,747$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.78 | 43 | 4.7%2 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0486…2a2fbacked No | 6c | 2,700$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 7c | 2,340$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.19 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 1,766$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.26 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9532…9350backed No | 7c | 1,531$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.33 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +107%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 1c | 1,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 7c | 1,496$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.27 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 1,443$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.91 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc90…a9f9backed No | 2c | 1,225$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 5c | 1,224$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.87 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 10c | 1,218$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.91 | 107 | 23.4%25 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8af9…c3e8backed No | 7c | 1,011$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd898…aaf1backed No | 8c | 1,001$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.13 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 2c | 999.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2e83…e26ebacked No | 3c | 953.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +63%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 5c | 897.94$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.98 | 117 | 5.1%6 W · 111 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 5c | 800$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34c5…0d7cbacked No | 14c | 794.49$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 4c | 780.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 5c | 746.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 71 | 7%5 W · 66 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…e8dabacked No | 6c | 732.96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.37 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 5c | 730$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa271…2727backed No | 2c | 728.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 5c | 700$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 86 | 5.8%5 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e4…5364backed No | 9c | 583.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x472a…fc02backed No | 12c | 578.46$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59ee…6c4fbacked No | 5c | 457.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9179…4096backed No | 5c | 451.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15d4…6dddbacked No | 5c | 411$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x824f…abddbacked No | 14c | 339.6$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 4c | 283.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed No | 6c | 203.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -58%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed No | 9c | 161.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 8c | 149.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc14b…041bbacked No | 11c | 140.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ac…9879backed No | 11c | 129.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd93a…0c67backed No | 10c | 115.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 13?this page
- Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 13?No won
- Will Google be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 13?No won
- Will Paramount+ be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.