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Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Synapse vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group A

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Synapseof Team Synapse, Nemiga Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$157,781
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$202,904

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $157,781 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 187 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2146…d41bbacked Nemiga Gaming42c19,912$8,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,392.6190741.2%374 W · 533 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Nemiga Gaming31c12,250$3,812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,812.391,20242.8%514 W · 688 L+38.3wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc83…08f4backed Team Synapse51c7,998$4,117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,881.556759.7%40 W · 27 L+7.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+13.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x5a05…12a2backed Team Synapse60c7,132$4,309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,823.4648650.8%247 W · 239 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f04…1fb0backed Team Synapse64c4,755$3,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,700.3512058.3%70 W · 50 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb26f…9536backed Team Synapse73c4,718$3,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,297.051050%5 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-23.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51be…12c2backed Team Synapse65c3,888$2,534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,354.6820251.5%104 W · 98 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd27c…c081backed Nemiga Gaming60c3,666$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,199.63056.7%17 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb55…51ddbacked Team Synapse74c3,390$2,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$894.0537160.4%224 W · 147 L-0.5wins0.00per pick61cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x948a…d1a4backed Team Synapse56c3,386$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,485.9724654.9%135 W · 111 L+14.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x47e8…efdcbacked Team Synapse55c2,761$1,518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,243.119855.6%110 W · 88 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Team Synapse47c2,663$1,253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,409.687028.6%20 W · 50 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x85e9…2eeabacked Nemiga Gaming51c2,168$1,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1117367.1%49 W · 24 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6eac…ed37backed Nemiga Gaming41c1,808$734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$734.1658548.5%284 W · 301 L+31.5wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+11%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4858…3dd3backed Nemiga Gaming40c1,643$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+23.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc910…8bbcbacked Team Synapse52c1,634$846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$787.1911957.1%68 W · 51 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Team Synapse66c1,538$1,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523.7224336.6%89 W · 154 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-34.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d70…210bbacked Team Synapse44c1,518$667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.282157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+20.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe694…0a08backed Nemiga Gaming62c1,445$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.9918851.6%97 W · 91 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Nemiga Gaming40c1,373$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.171,52538%579 W · 946 L-56.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc9f4…c1e4backed Nemiga Gaming65c1,333$862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$861.7444438.7%172 W · 272 L-43.5wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-32.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x07fa…f5cdbacked Team Synapse49c1,120$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$568.446540.9%190 W · 275 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x40db…ca8cbacked Team Synapse73c1,097$798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.4254559.3%323 W · 222 L+19.5wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Team Synapse54c1,020$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.4968847.4%326 W · 362 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5f6…38e8backed Nemiga Gaming2c973.81$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.783432.9%10 W · 333 L-11.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-58.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8ef…2864backed Nemiga Gaming51c934$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.345453.7%29 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7f83…a491backed Team Synapse40c920.91$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$548.724148.8%20 W · 21 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+29.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0587…c40bbacked Team Synapse54c912.22$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.038947.2%42 W · 47 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x66b1…6b9dbacked Nemiga Gaming11c900$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.899439.4%37 W · 57 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-19.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd677…7579backed Nemiga Gaming52c739$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.69425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick59cpaid-65.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Nemiga Gaming55c720.42$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.9938732.8%127 W · 260 L-13.5wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-35.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Nemiga Gaming50c702.74$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.636040%24 W · 36 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-17.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed Nemiga Gaming52c639.24$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.5111646.6%54 W · 62 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Nemiga Gaming48c554$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.9270433.1%233 W · 471 L-24.7wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc3f…5e0dbacked Team Synapse47c526.53$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.417979.7%63 W · 16 L+11.6wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+22%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5439…c45bbacked Nemiga Gaming77c510.11$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.092458.3%14 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick66cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x86ee…ef1fbacked Nemiga Gaming47c507.59$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2377965.8%52 W · 27 L+7.0wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+10.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x301c…86bbbacked Nemiga Gaming2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10120%0 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Nemiga Gaming50c499.99$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.0292756.5%524 W · 403 L+79.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Team Synapse60c496.12$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.666844.1%30 W · 38 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Nemiga Gaming41c492$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.2443546.7%203 W · 232 L-1.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58f4…7f23backed Nemiga Gaming52c479$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.213455.9%19 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0d6…6bf4backed Team Synapse47c476.49$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.4913653.7%73 W · 63 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0944…358fbacked Team Synapse43c442.35$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.482321.7%5 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-61.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Nemiga Gaming51c436.65$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.1616839.3%66 W · 102 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec96…f5d7backed Team Synapse46c434.78$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.7838951.9%202 W · 187 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x736d…c635backed Team Synapse48c423.06$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.9997242.8%416 W · 556 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79c6…4cf3backed Nemiga Gaming52c410$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.23938.5%15 W · 24 L-5.9wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-26.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7b28…ff4fbacked Nemiga Gaming54c406.86$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.9533452.7%176 W · 158 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c81…5518backed Team Synapse28c404.98$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.26240.3%25 W · 37 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-18.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4f90…db05backed Team Synapse40c400$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2402100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+125%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1614…0bedbacked Team Synapse47c381.59$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.888342.2%35 W · 48 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a1e…fd05backed Team Synapse55c367.64$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.6412050%60 W · 60 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+17.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9958…b9acbacked Nemiga Gaming55c363.64$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2007751.9%40 W · 37 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x242c…ddd2backed Team Synapse55c357.82$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.8221947%103 W · 116 L+16.8wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+10.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xccec…1dfcbacked Team Synapse40c356.73$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.048548.2%41 W · 44 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x230b…d318backed Team Synapse40c350$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2101369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+36.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xae27…6fb2backed Team Synapse27c346.24$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.75925.4%15 W · 44 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-7.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x08ee…ffe2backed Team Synapse62c344.14$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.444351.2%22 W · 21 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x975d…cc7abacked Nemiga Gaming29c341.54$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.89944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+40%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked Team Synapse45c337.18$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.7254244.5%241 W · 301 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c7b…6e9dbacked Team Synapse54c334.99$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.9525446.9%119 W · 135 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41a5…75bbbacked Team Synapse40c325$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19561949.9%309 W · 310 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Team Synapse45c318$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.9111950.4%60 W · 59 L+13.0wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+27.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa1bf…f357backed Team Synapse49c310$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.11346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-23.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc754…4b1dbacked Nemiga Gaming55c300$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1653429.4%10 W · 24 L-3.7wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-25.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbadb…31a7backed Team Synapse45c300$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1654153.7%22 W · 19 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca67…c864backed Team Synapse49c300$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1536341.3%26 W · 37 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+34.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe1d3…b8debacked Team Synapse52c299.99$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.0870752.5%371 W · 336 L+48.9wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+13.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x48f7…3aebbacked Nemiga Gaming55c288.53$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.4467648.4%327 W · 349 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b45…362bbacked Nemiga Gaming4c281.43$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7924334.6%84 W · 159 L-17.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-37.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf30a…61fbbacked Team Synapse47c278.65$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.813644.9%61 W · 75 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cb…f7dbbacked Team Synapse48c269.8$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.298942.7%38 W · 51 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Nemiga Gaming43c266.94$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.3154538.5%210 W · 335 L-26.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x034d…a29ebacked Team Synapse40c250$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1502060%12 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Team Synapse52c239.32$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.71,48248.9%724 W · 758 L+32.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8675…725dbacked Nemiga Gaming58c235.08$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.22250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bba…cf14backed Nemiga Gaming52c232.6$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.94067.5%27 W · 13 L+4.4wins+0.11per pick57cpaid+18.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Team Synapse46c227.01$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.691,12636.2%408 W · 718 L-38.1wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-30.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6204…caa8backed Nemiga Gaming56c209.61$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1174240.5%17 W · 25 L-6.4wins-0.15per pick56cpaid-37.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7f38…13c8backed Nemiga Gaming51c200$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.11145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbddb…9369backed Nemiga Gaming53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+33.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b3c…2688backed Nemiga Gaming55c190.25$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5799…db25backed Team Synapse54c184.05$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.0546650.2%234 W · 232 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Team Synapse40c176.73$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.3844649.6%221 W · 225 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf69…4fa2backed Team Synapse48c173.66$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.353834.2%184 W · 354 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x97f9…0aebbacked Nemiga Gaming49c170$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.3250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-21.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Team Synapse50c157.58$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.798829.5%26 W · 62 L-8.0wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-36.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf066…3349backed Team Synapse50c151.6$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.191172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.26per pick47cpaid+48.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x44ff…c7a8backed Nemiga Gaming43c147.69$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.2430%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a71…1a29backed Nemiga Gaming68c147.35$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick45cpaid-73.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c42…b792backed Nemiga Gaming51c145.9$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.412343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7d…f754backed Team Synapse74c144.57$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.11875%6 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+28.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x282c…dd8ebacked Nemiga Gaming70c143.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f93…a687backed Team Synapse62c142.06$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.043770.3%26 W · 11 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf3ac…c9f4backed Nemiga Gaming41c136.23$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2115567.7%105 W · 50 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Nemiga Gaming58c128$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.292553.6%496 W · 429 L+51.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3db7…375cbacked Team Synapse38c123.42$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.456121.3%13 W · 48 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-33.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed Team Synapse51c121$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.3817630.7%54 W · 122 L-15.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-38.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x23b5…97e1backed Team Synapse27c120$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.2613844.9%62 W · 76 L+8.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+17.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.