Us Politics · resolved market
Will AOC lead House oversight committee?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x248d03cfc4859c09c9a408b11fb80195bb3d74b2e791b443226e6646aa65c649
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,990
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,331
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,990 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c26…287cbacked Yes | 52c | 1,933$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fea…d383backed Yes | 3c | 1,644$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe730…beccbacked Yes | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbf…395bbacked Yes | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c7…f049backed No | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfff0…d216backed No | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3694…dd93backed No | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5da8…e5d7backed No | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0581…8b8dbacked Yes | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x322c…7091backed No | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6914…0ec0backed Yes | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc9…8d9bbacked Yes | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf864…a1b2backed No | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a95…ddd4backed Yes | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f18…7a0abacked Yes | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc078…7b91backed No | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a24…9475backed Yes | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…0312backed No | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed No | 57c | 950.74$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.22 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc21d…4ed8backed No | 48c | 778.9$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.68 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed No | 50c | 594.69$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.35 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…29debacked Yes | 23c | 569.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.7 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +42%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 552.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ea…17ebbacked No | 25c | 544.2$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.15 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Yes | 42c | 538.78$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.02 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 3c | 503$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 124 | 4.8%6 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed No | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcea…e78bbacked Yes | 52c | 490.61$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.42 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 53c | 481.32$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.45 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…dd2dbacked No | 56c | 449.99$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked No | 27c | 435$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec1b…c92fbacked Yes | 43c | 404$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.74 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked No | 57c | 400$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84dd…8701backed Yes | 45c | 373$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.51 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed No | 53c | 357.73$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.68 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes | 39c | 255.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc17a…1db3backed Yes | 49c | 203.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked Yes | 59c | 203.23$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.42 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecd…73fabacked No | 58c | 170.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.04 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf842…682dbacked No | 66c | 166.04$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 60c | 139.99$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.2 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x686a…966bbacked No | 79c | 134$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +7.5wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +123.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 29c | 123.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.11 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked Yes | 27c | 112.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 60c | 103.47$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96e0…b648backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x444e…01d0backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 24c | 96.81$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.58 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 46c | 94.86$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.86 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1984…241ebacked No | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe157…6db1backed No | 70c | 70.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…6d52backed No | 57c | 65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b3…0cd4backed Yes | 34c | 59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 69 | 21.7%15 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c60…67c1backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…7592backed Yes | 55c | 46.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 64c | 41.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…4bdfbacked No | 53c | 37.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc1…d7acbacked Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8053…810cbacked Yes | 40c | 34.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…693fbacked No | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +10.8wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb8da…df92backed Yes | 59c | 28.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 48c | 24.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47a5…aa28backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb184…a46dbacked No | 57c | 18.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.