TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Forsakenof PCIFIC , Forsaken
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$347,381
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$385,306

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $347,381 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 356 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x913c…39b3backed PCIFIC 40c14,718$5,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,889.4619041.1%78 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f70…ce77backed PCIFIC 4c7,412$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.251338.5%5 W · 8 L+3.4wins+0.26per pick12cpaid+163.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd7e4…15eebacked PCIFIC 1c6,500$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654418.2%8 W · 36 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick12cpaid+135.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6918…782bbacked Forsaken70c5,967$4,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,776.261,50154.5%818 W · 683 L+34.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed PCIFIC 50c5,549$2,758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,757.532,20233.3%733 W · 1,469 L-72.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7288…9ec5backed PCIFIC 6c5,000$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3241631.3%5 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick16cpaid+29.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f4b…556bbacked PCIFIC 2c4,200$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881421.4%3 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick7cpaid+72.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed PCIFIC 66c3,913$2,572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,571.723,13133.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L-150.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x50e8…0105backed PCIFIC 28c3,887$1,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,092.422532%8 W · 17 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-34.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x78f4…4a4abacked PCIFIC 6c3,750$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.51442.9%6 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+53.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe405…c67ebacked Forsaken67c3,716$2,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,223.2567760.4%409 W · 268 L+42.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed PCIFIC 2c3,675$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756214.5%9 W · 53 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+92.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked PCIFIC 8c3,500$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2942425%6 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe881…19abbacked PCIFIC 1c3,500$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354314.9%21 W · 410 L-1.8wins0.00per pick5cpaid-86.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d9f…787abacked Forsaken39c3,272$1,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,006.8261045.2%276 W · 334 L+35.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Forsaken38c3,217$1,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,991.961,15842.6%493 W · 665 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a05…cd14backed PCIFIC 2c3,150$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54583.4%2 W · 56 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick1cpaid+89.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3818…9797backed Forsaken75c3,082$2,309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$772.9357957.9%335 W · 244 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked PCIFIC 1c3,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4040916.1%66 W · 343 L-0.8wins0.00per pick16cpaid+23.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed PCIFIC 1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305920%0 W · 592 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0656…4d9bbacked PCIFIC 8c2,973$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.1217610.2%18 W · 158 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick6cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d85…f4e0backed Forsaken56c2,766$1,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,225.7164247.4%304 W · 338 L+24.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9625…5bb7backed Forsaken51c2,750$1,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,354.146344.4%28 W · 35 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb57d…07bfbacked Forsaken35c2,560$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,659.5427244.1%120 W · 152 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed PCIFIC 57c2,518$1,447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,446.721,05823.5%249 W · 809 L-75.8wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-49.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed PCIFIC 28c2,340$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655.1612840.6%52 W · 76 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bf6…2d98backed PCIFIC 28c2,306$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647.923033.3%10 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed PCIFIC 1c2,250$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302181.8%4 W · 214 L+0.7wins0.00per pick2cpaid+37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15ec…267dbacked Forsaken26c2,250$586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,664.452839.3%11 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed PCIFIC 31c2,100$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6571,46828.9%424 W · 1,044 L+23.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfad…fa05backed PCIFIC 33c2,093$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7001,21858.1%708 W · 510 L+44.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf070…0f8fbacked PCIFIC 75c2,005$1,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,498.013565.7%23 W · 12 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked Forsaken73c1,985$1,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.041,48550.1%744 W · 741 L+67.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6436…da96backed Forsaken65c1,976$1,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$696.2411854.2%64 W · 54 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Forsaken47c1,952$925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,026.551,06154.7%580 W · 481 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7029…1136backed PCIFIC 26c1,916$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49716645.8%76 W · 90 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed PCIFIC 25c1,907$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.651,30838.6%505 W · 803 L-64.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Forsaken42c1,903$793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,110.172,49547.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L-32.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1de6…0b70backed PCIFIC 57c1,881$1,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,073.973855.3%21 W · 17 L+5.4wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+32.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed Forsaken57c1,741$992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$748.638063.8%51 W · 29 L+12.3wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+41.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Forsaken56c1,495$834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661.022,93844.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L-92.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3db7…375cbacked PCIFIC 4c1,469$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3213014.6%19 W · 111 L-12.7wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-36%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed Forsaken46c1,463$676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$786.486943.2%375 W · 494 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde1d…dfaabacked Forsaken73c1,439$1,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.321361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeebb…0b96backed PCIFIC 29c1,430$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.328235.1%99 W · 183 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed PCIFIC 46c1,403$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.861,05746.1%487 W · 570 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e32…ab65backed Forsaken71c1,324$938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.982,15653.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7553…65cabacked PCIFIC 36c1,250$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.9967250.9%342 W · 330 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed PCIFIC 45c1,230$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.0452543.8%230 W · 295 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x695d…0d7cbacked PCIFIC 73c1,207$877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$877.1667553.5%361 W · 314 L+25.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc387…5a97backed Forsaken68c1,193$806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.1260354.7%330 W · 273 L-2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Forsaken53c1,182$628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.381,38937.7%524 W · 865 L-45.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed PCIFIC 31c1,129$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.6416048.1%77 W · 83 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31ab…20e9backed PCIFIC 55c1,107$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.355448.1%26 W · 28 L-7.6wins-0.14per pick62cpaid-26.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd02a…4771backed PCIFIC 27c1,052$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28419232.8%63 W · 129 L-17.2wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-23.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc5ac…2a18backed PCIFIC 26c1,003$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.713130.5%40 W · 91 L-13.9wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-31.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5409…79dbbacked Forsaken75c1,000$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25030160.8%183 W · 118 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid+3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccec…1dfcbacked PCIFIC 27c996.8$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.35937.3%22 W · 37 L-5.5wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-16.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1ca0…38babacked Forsaken46c980.1$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.781,44343.4%626 W · 817 L+105.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+20.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked PCIFIC 26c952.23$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.5825433.5%85 W · 169 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b4c…1715backed PCIFIC 7c951$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.4254824.3%133 W · 415 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dd8…d109backed PCIFIC 47c946.7$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.53560%3 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.31per pick29cpaid+102.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x13e5…1ea5backed Forsaken55c891.76$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.4419948.2%96 W · 103 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1c5…8a63backed PCIFIC 53c880.98$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.5830%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked PCIFIC 43c872.64$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.292,67935.7%957 W · 1,722 L-153.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3135…f6c3backed Forsaken42c870.07$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.0432253.1%171 W · 151 L+19.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked PCIFIC 45c843.2$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.392,31139.4%910 W · 1,401 L-83.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Forsaken65c821.34$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.651,20743.5%525 W · 682 L-14.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ba3…9a44backed PCIFIC 15c800$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1202133.3%7 W · 14 L+4.1wins+0.20per pick14cpaid+97.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x257e…ca61backed PCIFIC 50c795.02$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.6120450.5%103 W · 101 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked PCIFIC 47c769.52$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.971,23937.3%462 W · 777 L-39.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-27%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4bb6…50fcbacked PCIFIC 26c769.51$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.075356.6%30 W · 23 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xac75…1319backed Forsaken71c756.03$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.2523351.1%119 W · 114 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe54d…fdecbacked Forsaken55c749.99$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.9913137.4%49 W · 82 L-11.8wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-18.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Forsaken50c733.38$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.791,04750.3%527 W · 520 L+37.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Forsaken51c710.49$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.411,94048.1%934 W · 1,006 L+22.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf37…47fcbacked Forsaken50c708.3$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.25933.9%20 W · 39 L-6.8wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-20.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6985…afdfbacked PCIFIC 28c703.6$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.01825%2 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-59%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5903…d02bbacked Forsaken55c699.98$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.9914327.3%39 W · 104 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-10%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5dd0…9192backed PCIFIC 29c689.65$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked PCIFIC 57c685.04$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.691,67157.9%968 W · 703 L+70.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked PCIFIC 22c660$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.287844.2%388 W · 490 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74fc…a0bdbacked Forsaken67c631.62$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.415457.8%89 W · 65 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e54…511ebacked Forsaken44c628.87$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.5940741.5%169 W · 238 L-11.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Forsaken67c623.62$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.3112927.9%36 W · 93 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-19.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd7d3…698bbacked PCIFIC 33c613.55$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20025256.3%142 W · 110 L+14.2wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e42…f22abacked PCIFIC 24c600$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.429942.8%128 W · 171 L+1.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cd2…648cbacked Forsaken49c600$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.4595048.5%461 W · 489 L+26.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6535…063fbacked PCIFIC 12c600$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick17cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d3a…9683backed PCIFIC 32c589.6$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.67742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-31.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x653e…bbc0backed PCIFIC 27c587.62$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.6641133.8%139 W · 272 L-28.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-23.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc890…c2ffbacked PCIFIC 41c576.32$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.91911.1%1 W · 8 L-3.0wins-0.33per pick44cpaid-69.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed PCIFIC 35c555$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.251,09834.8%382 W · 716 L-17.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb11…66cbbacked Forsaken58c540$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.271,01955.8%569 W · 450 L+22.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked PCIFIC 56c538.64$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.2440641.9%170 W · 236 L-16.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-26.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4247…91c4backed Forsaken74c510.74$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.798149.4%40 W · 41 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Forsaken64c500$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1811,59946.8%748 W · 851 L-48.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe59…0d2ebacked PCIFIC 26c499.99$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13060538.8%235 W · 370 L-1.5wins0.00per pick39cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bb1…eac3backed PCIFIC 30c499.95$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.9814936.9%55 W · 94 L-8.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0593…9712backed Forsaken68c499.33$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.4512469.4%86 W · 38 L+7.8wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.