TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Forsakenof PCIFIC , Forsaken
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$55,968
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$61,933

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,968 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x913c…39b3backed PCIFIC 1c5,333$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8019041.1%78 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6918…782bbacked Forsaken63c4,321$2,738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,583.491,50154.5%818 W · 683 L+34.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed PCIFIC 1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305920%0 W · 592 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Forsaken60c2,479$1,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$999.561,67157.9%968 W · 703 L+70.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe74a…f1bfbacked PCIFIC 40c2,254$902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901.74540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Forsaken60c1,717$1,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.982,49547.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L-32.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3818…9797backed PCIFIC 35c1,639$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573.0457957.9%335 W · 244 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed PCIFIC 32c1,545$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.42,22637.5%834 W · 1,392 L-29.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed Forsaken70c1,412$981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.152543.8%230 W · 295 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed PCIFIC 22c1,159$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.331,38937.7%524 W · 865 L-45.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Forsaken65c1,153$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.051,06154.7%580 W · 481 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Forsaken55c991.22$544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.282,20233.3%733 W · 1,469 L-72.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Forsaken63c976.83$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.991,94048.1%934 W · 1,006 L+22.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc387…5a97backed PCIFIC 32c924.18$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.7560354.7%330 W · 273 L-2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6436…da96backed Forsaken69c910.22$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.2311854.2%64 W · 54 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f03…b1bebacked Forsaken68c808.93$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.861,13252.5%594 W · 538 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c93…33d5backed PCIFIC 57c750$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.51464.3%9 W · 5 L+3.7wins+0.27per pick38cpaid+89.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed Forsaken52c749.98$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.498063.8%51 W · 29 L+12.3wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+41.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xb8aa…a3c7backed Forsaken77c649.81$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Forsaken54c616$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.443,13133.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L-150.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3eb3…4d75backed Forsaken66c567.35$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.9360855.8%339 W · 269 L-14.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed PCIFIC 40c554.99$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2221,09834.8%382 W · 716 L-17.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe405…c67ebacked Forsaken76c538.51$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.9367760.4%409 W · 268 L+42.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x27f5…c45dbacked PCIFIC 28c499.99$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14017438.5%67 W · 107 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Forsaken72c499.99$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.51,79451.1%917 W · 877 L+50.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed Forsaken72c486.05$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.6616048.1%77 W · 83 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6803…5d6dbacked PCIFIC 30c479.91$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1456753.7%36 W · 31 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e32…ab65backed Forsaken65c460.18$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.562,15653.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee80…f34ebacked PCIFIC 45c444.56$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20035159.5%209 W · 142 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7d3…698bbacked PCIFIC 47c425.53$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20025256.3%142 W · 110 L+14.2wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x71ce…cc35backed PCIFIC 47c422.92$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20012552%65 W · 60 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfad…fa05backed Forsaken72c413.97$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.971,21858.1%708 W · 510 L+44.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed PCIFIC 30c388.16$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.912927.9%36 W · 93 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-19.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa79a…d72abacked PCIFIC 29c383.04$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.6649451.8%256 W · 238 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2f9…db30backed PCIFIC 27c380.44$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.727631.6%24 W · 52 L-9.1wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-32.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked PCIFIC 34c365.76$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.3335341.9%148 W · 205 L-11.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb953…5393backed PCIFIC 49c325$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.2557151.5%294 W · 277 L+14.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ab6…078ebacked Forsaken60c323.75$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.534250.6%173 W · 169 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe54d…fdecbacked Forsaken75c321$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.3113137.4%49 W · 82 L-11.8wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-18.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed PCIFIC 32c319.31$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.1854529.7%162 W · 383 L-34.7wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-18.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked PCIFIC 34c300$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10260243.4%261 W · 341 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7900…3393backed PCIFIC 47c297.87$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14015656.4%88 W · 68 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Forsaken65c281.49$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.152,93844.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L-92.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked PCIFIC 26c281.31$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.441,13431%352 W · 782 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Forsaken68c277.55$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.11,59946.8%748 W · 851 L-48.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36a0…436dbacked PCIFIC 40c270.99$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10947738.6%184 W · 293 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cd2…648cbacked PCIFIC 37c266.63$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.6695048.5%461 W · 489 L+26.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7029…1136backed PCIFIC 28c253.05$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.816645.8%76 W · 90 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe59…0d2ebacked PCIFIC 46c250$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11560538.8%235 W · 370 L-1.5wins0.00per pick39cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x109b…935fbacked PCIFIC 32c235.59$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7528261%172 W · 110 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe74…a70ebacked PCIFIC 29c235$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.1510644.3%47 W · 59 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa487…9439backed PCIFIC 32c217.41$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.5711538.3%44 W · 71 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5061…261dbacked PCIFIC 46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006746.3%31 W · 36 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x191f…f09ebacked Forsaken69c210.58$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.2842540.7%173 W · 252 L-17.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked PCIFIC 30c209.18$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.941,15842.6%493 W · 665 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e31…0e6ebacked Forsaken72c209.12$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.1223880.3%191 W · 47 L+16.2wins+0.07per pick73cpaid+9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdf06…c9ffbacked Forsaken72c204.22$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.7763352%329 W · 304 L+39.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+22.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0f86…404ebacked PCIFIC 35c200$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702839.3%11 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-31.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f19…b9ffbacked PCIFIC 31c197.06$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.096235.5%22 W · 40 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-31.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked PCIFIC 23c176.19$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.971,97130.5%601 W · 1,370 L-170.0wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-43.4%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x8f88…ca51backed PCIFIC 22c162.63$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9852438.9%204 W · 320 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac75…1319backed Forsaken65c162.14$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.7523351.1%119 W · 114 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c67…9896backed PCIFIC 30c157.36$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.6650646%233 W · 273 L+2.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3737…bfd1backed Forsaken74c151.84$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.4837957.5%218 W · 161 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked PCIFIC 18c145.41$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.711,35731.2%423 W · 934 L-129.6wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-43.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed PCIFIC 28c133.13$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.722,90538.5%1,119 W · 1,786 L-118.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed PCIFIC 22c130.15$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.041,82639.9%728 W · 1,098 L-61.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Forsaken68c123.41$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.4924832.3%80 W · 168 L-11.7wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-24.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed PCIFIC 32c120.84$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.671,38545.1%625 W · 760 L-12.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e4d…1cb0backed PCIFIC 44c118.63$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.741,27057%724 W · 546 L+45.7wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeff4…2aa4backed PCIFIC 29c115.15$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9333263.6%211 W · 121 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd42c…51adbacked PCIFIC 34c112$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.08520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-48.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5280…4d8ebacked PCIFIC 24c110.38$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.498170.4%57 W · 24 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed PCIFIC 21c109$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.961,63846.7%765 W · 873 L-26.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b73…174ebacked PCIFIC 34c105.12$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.114052.1%73 W · 67 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked PCIFIC 25c103.93$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.561,89937.1%705 W · 1,194 L-113.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-32.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Forsaken54c101.85$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.852,82541.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L-14.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x57b2…9da2backed Forsaken60c101.67$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.6735443.2%153 W · 201 L+12.7wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa485…a7d5backed PCIFIC 36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3625345.8%116 W · 137 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b17…0c09backed PCIFIC 41c98.13$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4026750.9%136 W · 131 L+10.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked PCIFIC 28c93$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.651,23937.3%462 W · 777 L-39.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-27%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9349…548bbacked PCIFIC 19c88.71$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1720%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4719…8d69backed PCIFIC 49c88$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.071442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cb5…def4backed PCIFIC 55c88$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.411258.9%66 W · 46 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7329…bebdbacked PCIFIC 38c79.42$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3043453.5%232 W · 202 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Forsaken68c78.16$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.8895551.7%494 W · 461 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb877…4601backed PCIFIC 31c76.51$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.491,21839.9%486 W · 732 L-65.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-23.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x683b…c863backed PCIFIC 40c75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc400…21a7backed Forsaken65c74.42$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.323149.8%115 W · 116 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x219e…f793backed PCIFIC 28c71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.882941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-37.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked PCIFIC 16c69.51$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.422,67935.7%957 W · 1,722 L-153.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6376…0d2abacked Forsaken67c69$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.7728341%116 W · 167 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb8ad…0e38backed PCIFIC 31c63.26$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4617953.6%96 W · 83 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x13e5…1ea5backed Forsaken78c60.74$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5419948.2%96 W · 103 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d94…eb52backed PCIFIC 32c60$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.232345.5%147 W · 176 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6f8…7fa1backed PCIFIC 35c57.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2077746.2%359 W · 418 L+18.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bc4…e2b9backed PCIFIC 35c57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.915045.3%68 W · 82 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12bc…bf2fbacked Forsaken75c56.49$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0936040.6%146 W · 214 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4509…58aebacked PCIFIC 26c55.78$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.291,05539.6%418 W · 637 L-74.9wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-28.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd05e…f1e9backed PCIFIC 31c54.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.052755.6%15 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-10.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.