Fifa International · resolved market
Spread: Canada (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x257b096216f454df49c1c9f3e866694c7d3c5c34838051a169b161ec8e39dd6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bosnia and Herzegovinaof Canada, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $88,098
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,685
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,098 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Canada | 7c | 17,533$1,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,143.27 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Canada | 11c | 13,694$1,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,506.31 | 2,439 | 29%707 W · 1,732 L | -65.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2393…d54dbacked Canada | 10c | 5,600$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 176 | 25%44 W · 132 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78c1…473ebacked Canada | 10c | 4,131$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.1 | 513 | 15.6%80 W · 433 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Canada | 11c | 3,551$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.6 | 2,603 | 37.8%984 W · 1,619 L | -40.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Canada | 2c | 1,473$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Canada | 7c | 1,328$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.29 | 2,307 | 37.6%867 W · 1,440 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10d…3154backed Canada | 11c | 1,318$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.98 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Canada | 1c | 1,100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 170 | 5.9%10 W · 160 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6888…a61cbacked Canada | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 144 | 30.6%44 W · 100 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac9…92d3backed Canada | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 226 | 22.1%50 W · 176 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe39a…efc1backed Canada | 3c | 730.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc82…c7c5backed Canada | 10c | 520$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ee…f132backed Canada | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Canada | 7c | 467.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 1,627 | 32.1%523 W · 1,104 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e51…42cebacked Canada | 10c | 299.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 326 | 42.9%140 W · 186 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Canada | 11c | 281.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 222 | 26.6%59 W · 163 L | -15.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Canada | 10c | 200.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 1,005 | 44.3%445 W · 560 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3600…f72bbacked Canada | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -46%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9403…7361backed Canada | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 155 | 22.6%35 W · 120 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked Canada | 10c | 167.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 878 | 37.2%327 W · 551 L | -41.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3803…7eafbacked Canada | 10c | 159.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 208 | 50.5%105 W · 103 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a69…5a45backed Canada | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf761…dc39backed Canada | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Canada | 10c | 110.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 481 | 52.4%252 W · 229 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2e…1473backed Canada | 11c | 104$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Canada (-2.5)this page
- Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5Over won
- Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5Over won
- Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5Under won
- Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5Under won
- Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5Under won
- Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5Under won
- Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5Over won
- Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5Under won
- Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5Under won
- Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
- Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5Over won
- Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5Under won
- Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5)Canada won
- Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5)Canada won
- Spread: Canada (-1.5)Bosnia and Herzegovina won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.