TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Vici Gaming - Game 4 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Vici Gamingof Team Resilience, Vici Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$134,901
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$170,101

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $134,901 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9eca…5a59backed Team Resilience41c14,276$5,897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,896.6340051.5%206 W · 194 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bfc…ce53backed Vici Gaming57c10,975$6,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,689.6811647.4%55 W · 61 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-16.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d4d…8525backed Vici Gaming56c9,507$5,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,163.523132.3%10 W · 21 L-4.5wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-42.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed Team Resilience44c6,666$2,933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,933.0415951.6%82 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef62…cf76backed Vici Gaming56c6,164$3,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,70443344.8%194 W · 239 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed Vici Gaming56c5,619$3,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,479.21,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x25c5…0031backed Team Resilience1c5,100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578918%16 W · 73 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-38.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Team Resilience45c4,868$2,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,205.0980256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Vici Gaming57c4,678$2,648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,029.4186659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8a0…6f8bbacked Team Resilience46c4,664$2,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1436569.2%45 W · 20 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf054…eae7backed Team Resilience51c4,297$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,20012557.6%72 W · 53 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd537…0f7cbacked Vici Gaming54c3,504$1,877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,626.8520452.9%108 W · 96 L-10.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-12.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x93bd…bbc5backed Vici Gaming65c3,257$2,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,124.0253764.4%346 W · 191 L+26.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe0b…b5febacked Team Resilience47c3,137$1,463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,462.57837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Team Resilience41c2,640$1,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,075.3999844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed Team Resilience40c2,510$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00061745.7%282 W · 335 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x974f…cd80backed Team Resilience41c2,448$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,007.7555147.5%262 W · 289 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x948a…d1a4backed Team Resilience51c2,172$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10024255%133 W · 109 L+14.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f76…aea6backed Vici Gaming63c2,056$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$756.1718356.8%104 W · 79 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d0a…07c7backed Vici Gaming68c1,765$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.719063.3%57 W · 33 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a85…ff94backed Team Resilience27c1,498$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40029352.9%155 W · 138 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdcdd…73a5backed Vici Gaming59c1,342$797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.1815739.5%62 W · 95 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed Vici Gaming62c1,336$830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.254246.7%253 W · 289 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c01…e7d0backed Team Resilience45c1,222$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.8912350.4%62 W · 61 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab04…a00abacked Team Resilience43c1,160$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.837945.9%174 W · 205 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3601…44fbbacked Vici Gaming52c1,156$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.8116954.4%92 W · 77 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Team Resilience48c1,100$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.8760646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Vici Gaming59c1,092$647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.962,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Team Resilience45c999.99$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45049455.1%272 W · 222 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a05…12a2backed Team Resilience32c966.06$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.7747650.8%242 W · 234 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a84…a46bbacked Vici Gaming69c939.96$646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.679044.4%40 W · 50 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Team Resilience34c929.96$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.9988539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Vici Gaming54c908.97$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.891,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe5a…13f5backed Team Resilience45c824.5$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36745046.7%210 W · 240 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8342…6dc8backed Team Resilience44c817.17$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36248054%259 W · 221 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked Team Resilience50c800$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.0255251.6%285 W · 267 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf27…026fbacked Team Resilience38c786.72$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.9565863.1%415 W · 243 L+17.5wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x73a2…3b68backed Vici Gaming70c782.6$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.7825648%123 W · 133 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Team Resilience39c666.01$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.9453139.5%210 W · 321 L-37.2wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Vici Gaming54c632.79$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.411,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7d3…698bbacked Team Resilience41c610.99$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.8148053.1%255 W · 225 L+25.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x40db…ca8cbacked Vici Gaming52c600$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28854058.9%318 W · 222 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Team Resilience31c555.95$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.031,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked Vici Gaming52c548$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.0436851.6%190 W · 178 L+25.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Team Resilience43c535.25$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23126843.7%117 W · 151 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Vici Gaming57c528.84$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.591,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed Team Resilience40c527.46$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21096245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked Team Resilience48c524.27$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25042145.4%191 W · 230 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77f2…eec6backed Team Resilience40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20055457.8%320 W · 234 L+12.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab71…2adabacked Vici Gaming55c495.4$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.174647.8%22 W · 24 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe843…0699backed Team Resilience29c464.98$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.7911131.5%35 W · 76 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-9.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Team Resilience5c450.18$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.266132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Resilience43c434.27$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.221,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x473f…9892backed Vici Gaming75c398.2$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.2150053%265 W · 235 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fbb…7e44backed Vici Gaming54c370.37$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.3715151%77 W · 74 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c71…c0e5backed Vici Gaming55c370$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.58550.6%43 W · 42 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0438…a67bbacked Vici Gaming59c331.8$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.4475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3304…8313backed Vici Gaming62c322.82$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.828050%40 W · 40 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xac45…844fbacked Team Resilience47c319.15$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Team Resilience48c313.34$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.0761456%344 W · 270 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeea8…0412backed Team Resilience49c308.82$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1508946.1%41 W · 48 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Vici Gaming64c300.03$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.531,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb25e…39aabacked Vici Gaming58c300$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1262166.7%14 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c75…de96backed Vici Gaming63c273.98$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.1322461.2%137 W · 87 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa516…235cbacked Team Resilience45c249.99$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.4930643.5%133 W · 173 L-22.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-17.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2133…7903backed Vici Gaming52c237.79$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.1434443.9%151 W · 193 L-0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x009b…26dabacked Vici Gaming55c227.27$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.2721144.1%93 W · 118 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5799…db25backed Team Resilience44c227.21$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10046049.8%229 W · 231 L+2.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x94f1…b9e7backed Team Resilience46c215$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.945951.9%238 W · 221 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5a2…da60backed Team Resilience48c209.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-47.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe34e…c0f4backed Vici Gaming64c209$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.096547.7%31 W · 34 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3216…0cc7backed Team Resilience50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003754.1%20 W · 17 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+15.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3989…0539backed Team Resilience44c200$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$883360.6%20 W · 13 L+5.4wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+32%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8031…67e0backed Team Resilience45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9073743.6%321 W · 416 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xce5f…ab17backed Vici Gaming69c200$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6316250%81 W · 81 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x423f…eedcbacked Vici Gaming51c189$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.6112350.4%62 W · 61 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd12d…f0dbbacked Vici Gaming58c172.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.4114956.4%84 W · 65 L+0.6wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed Vici Gaming69c165.81$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.6420145.3%91 W · 110 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b41…2c02backed Vici Gaming57c165.12$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.872637.5%272 W · 454 L+3.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Vici Gaming61c155.45$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.1367043.3%290 W · 380 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4946…e041backed Team Resilience48c153.25$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.8255561.8%343 W · 212 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Team Resilience45c150$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Team Resilience39c136.8$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3227357.1%156 W · 117 L+9.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6787…6044backed Vici Gaming58c129.93$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.936264.5%40 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45da…72febacked Vici Gaming50c120.96$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.483336.4%12 W · 21 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-28%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9209…b4d5backed Vici Gaming62c119.9$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.562334.8%8 W · 15 L-4.4wins-0.19per pick54cpaid-44.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed Vici Gaming68c111.37$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.150247.6%239 W · 263 L+31.6wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xce7a…fef0backed Team Resilience47c107.45$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5019145.5%87 W · 104 L+13.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb97e…262bbacked Team Resilience40c104.38$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.6252649.2%259 W · 267 L+21.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8044…358ebacked Vici Gaming54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464250%21 W · 21 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x312f…913cbacked Team Resilience43c97.98$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.91952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa163…3ccbbacked Vici Gaming70c91$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.415536.1%56 W · 99 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38c5…0f5cbacked Team Resilience46c90$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.458250.5%294 W · 288 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d4d…4f6bbacked Vici Gaming56c89.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.29475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Vici Gaming67c87.63$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.071,26049.7%626 W · 634 L+21.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4471…3f7bbacked Team Resilience41c84.95$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.881838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-32.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked Team Resilience44c82.83$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1243049.1%211 W · 219 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b4c…1715backed Vici Gaming61c82.58$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.8421333.3%71 W · 142 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+64.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Team Resilience43c81.88$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3573554.7%402 W · 333 L-3.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbaa5…a51abacked Team Resilience42c81.79$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3436654.1%198 W · 168 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.