NBA · resolved market
Isaiah Hartenstein: Assists O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x270dc847ee6bc15f0448adc2349b0623733063655048315289f10ebe89b23ad7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,877
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,890
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,877 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked No | 70c | 1,674$1,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb244…9b39backed Yes | 31c | 742.14$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.06 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf836…f39cbacked No | 69c | 598.82$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.58 | 270 | 59.6%161 W · 109 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45b5…6ee9backed Yes | 29c | 489.79$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e85…788bbacked Yes | 31c | 401.87$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.62 | 156 | 51.9%81 W · 75 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5677…0686backed Yes | 27c | 391.93$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a3…c59abacked Yes | 28c | 337.12$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf9…5f13backed Yes | 30c | 289.02$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.66 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 39cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Yes | 47c | 202.45$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.36 | 714 | 49.3%352 W · 362 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc991…abd4backed No | 64c | 175.34$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.56 | 487 | 51.7%252 W · 235 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe048…781abacked Yes | 29c | 172.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x339c…072dbacked Yes | 26c | 168.28$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed No | 74c | 167$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.98 | 560 | 43.9%246 W · 314 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked No | 71c | 164.88$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.69 | 920 | 58%534 W · 386 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…42a8backed Yes | 24c | 119.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 40cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 76c | 102.57$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x710c…d488backed Yes | 25c | 62.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…6f57backed No | 72c | 58.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 302 | 56.6%171 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Yes | 65c | 53.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 164 | 50%82 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00f7…4476backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed No | 34c | 45.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.98 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb0…b6f5backed No | 72c | 44.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 70c | 42.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec69…d6d8backed No | 71c | 32.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 377 | 53.8%203 W · 174 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x376d…bc1bbacked No | 74c | 26.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 98 | 69.4%68 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x990a…a9cebacked Yes | 47c | 25.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 64c | 20.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 195 | 55.4%108 W · 87 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…2d96backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 602 | 67.3%405 W · 197 L | +46.2wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…f87fbacked No | 71c | 15.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 462 | 55.6%257 W · 205 L | +22.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Assists O/U 2.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Thunder won
- Brook Lopez: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Darius Garland: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Derrick Jones Jr.: Assists O/U 0.5Yes won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Points O/U 6.5Yes won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Jalen Williams: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Kawhi Leonard: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 29.5No won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
- Thunder vs. ClippersThunder won
- Thunder vs. Clippers: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Clippers: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Clippers: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Clippers: O/U 224.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Clippers: O/U 225.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Clippers: O/U 226.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Clippers: O/U 227.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Clippers: O/U 228.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.