CS2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x274e2250f6f79b82ee9a9ac0e040cad7feb9ccac0dbcc8def660cb31baef4bbd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,646
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,247
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,646 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Over | 58c | 2,387$1,393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,392.84 | 1,969 | 46.7%919 W · 1,050 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4da…1772backed Under | 51c | 1,630$837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.19 | 537 | 46.2%248 W · 289 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Over | 56c | 1,024$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.49 | 2,214 | 47.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f76…aea6backed Over | 50c | 985.72$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.86 | 148 | 39.2%58 W · 90 L | -15.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Under | 50c | 885.53$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.77 | 882 | 42.3%373 W · 509 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 50c | 803.09$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.65 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 35c | 767.08$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.6 | 2,776 | 37.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L | -140.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x972f…65bdbacked Under | 50c | 739.84$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.84 | 391 | 57.5%225 W · 166 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac42…60d1backed Over | 49c | 635$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.15 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Over | 57c | 572.36$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.92 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Under | 31c | 512.02$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.88 | 1,650 | 32.7%540 W · 1,110 L | -49.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Under | 52c | 509.94$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.77 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc882…0662backed Over | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x565a…3207backed Under | 43c | 423.84$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.59 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Over | 48c | 353.83$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.84 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Over | 61c | 321.27$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.63 | 1,365 | 66.3%905 W · 460 L | +76.1wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Over | 42c | 320.94$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.79 | 2,328 | 51.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L | +92.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 68c | 282.34$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.35 | 2,326 | 45.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Over | 53c | 270$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.1 | 190 | 30.5%58 W · 132 L | -12.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 36c | 185.03$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.4 | 1,630 | 43.2%704 W · 926 L | -32.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Under | 34c | 179$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.26 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 18c | 167.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.42 | 3,910 | 36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L | -197.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 51c | 149.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.75 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | -8.2wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Over | 61c | 142.03$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.63 | 3,225 | 51.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L | +88.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…ec07backed Under | 38c | 125$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 84 | 41.7%35 W · 49 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…1ee0backed Over | 49c | 123.06$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6700…67c4backed Over | 48c | 104.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 259 | 41.3%107 W · 152 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Under | 52c | 99.97$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.99 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…4341backed Over | 40c | 95.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.33 | 187 | 48.1%90 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 65c | 91.04$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 1,003 | 55.7%559 W · 444 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c11…02c8backed Over | 48c | 74.54$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16a6…9b8dbacked Over | 49c | 68.29$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d1…cde6backed Over | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 52c | 58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 543 | 48.6%264 W · 279 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3328…6464backed Under | 28c | 55.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.86 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…eabbbacked Over | 61c | 51.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd62…a229backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14f6…f9f7backed Under | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cb…0134backed Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 201 | 45.8%92 W · 109 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2405…5ad8backed Over | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c27…21a9backed Over | 48c | 23.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 231 | 58.4%135 W · 96 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…7fb5backed Over | 48c | 22.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Over | 47c | 21.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 812 | 44.3%360 W · 452 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc83…e37bbacked Under | 75c | 17.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Over | 71c | 15.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 219 | 52.5%115 W · 104 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group StageAurora Gaming won
- Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 WinnerAurora Gaming won
- Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 WinnerAurora Gaming won
- Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5)Aurora Gaming won
- Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5)Aurora Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.