TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spurs vs. Mavericks: O/U 225.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,664
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,130

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,664 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Over52c2,582$1,337 inWon+$1,244.249,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cbf…4ec0backed Under48c2,500$1,200 inLost-$1,199.775858.6%34 W · 24 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over80c971.9$774 inWon+$197.988,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa42a…d91fbacked Over53c432.31$231 inWon+$201.1862347.5%296 W · 327 L-17.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3eff…ae12backed Over53c376.17$199 inWon+$176.828147.7%134 W · 147 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e68…3215backed Under48c358.33$172 inLost-$17211755.6%65 W · 52 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under48c322.68$155 inLost-$154.894,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Under42c299.97$127 inLost-$127.0491148.1%438 W · 473 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under39c287.96$113 inLost-$113.23,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over50c250.14$125 inWon+$125.482,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under48c213.65$103 inLost-$102.654,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfce…5c3ebacked Over48c210.02$101 inWon+$109.211741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under52c199.99$104 inLost-$10441052%213 W · 197 L-1.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Over63c137.14$86 inWon+$50.741,44458.1%839 W · 605 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Under45c128.35$57 inLost-$57.422,90238.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L-51.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47e5…9b73backed Under52c100$52 inLost-$5242551.3%218 W · 207 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd44d…389dbacked Under51c100$51 inLost-$5141354%223 W · 190 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6533…0f9cbacked Over63c52.38$33 inWon+$19.3849358.6%289 W · 204 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b3a…1440backed Under40c51.36$21 inLost-$20.766541.5%27 W · 38 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-17.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Over59c40.7$24 inWon+$16.6619051.6%98 W · 92 L+0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf628…ba6fbacked Under40c30.15$12 inLost-$11.978440.5%34 W · 50 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-11.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4da6…0aa0backed Over63c22.22$14 inWon+$8.22450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.