NBA · resolved market
Spurs vs. Mavericks: O/U 230.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda404add13eb48c1843aa28e4fe889822a6cb12d2df9c1491edc87c541435dbc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $154,299
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $155,735
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $154,299 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 51c | 80,000$40,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,799.95 | 326 | 53.1%173 W · 153 L | +19.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…b7b7backed Over | 49c | 16,722$8,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,528.22 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Over | 49c | 16,000$7,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,160 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…d49fbacked Over | 50c | 14,855$7,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,427.5 | 483 | 52%251 W · 232 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fb…fe50backed Over | 49c | 14,306$7,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,296.12 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked Under | 52c | 11,458$5,958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,958.33 | 134 | 42.5%57 W · 77 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Over | 49c | 10,200$4,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,202 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Over | 48c | 9,158$4,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,758.16 | 485 | 46.4%225 W · 260 L | -14.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc617…a854backed Over | 49c | 8,904$4,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,528.69 | 426 | 48.1%205 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 8,604$4,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,345.75 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d13…92f3backed Over | 49c | 8,282$4,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,223.63 | 702 | 46.4%326 W · 376 L | -20.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77fe…551dbacked Over | 49c | 8,161$3,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,162.22 | 244 | 50%122 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,550 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…30fabacked Over | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,040 | 357 | 44.3%158 W · 199 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 50c | 2,984$1,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,497.88 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Under | 51c | 2,873$1,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,465.2 | 657 | 50.1%329 W · 328 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…1769backed Over | 48c | 2,708$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,408.33 | 321 | 50.8%163 W · 158 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 51c | 2,500$1,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,275 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 50c | 2,200$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 461 | 45.6%210 W · 251 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9aa…67e1backed Under | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Over | 79c | 1,675$1,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.21 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e3…6dfebacked Over | 48c | 1,510$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.78 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ab…0e37backed Under | 14c | 1,426$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.6 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 49c | 1,294$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.9 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca5…73bcbacked Under | 51c | 1,230$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 404 | 51.5%208 W · 196 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 49c | 1,225$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.75 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3242…0e0bbacked Over | 49c | 1,150$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.5 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 51c | 1,148$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.71 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…85a2backed Under | 52c | 921$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475 | 323 | 47.1%152 W · 171 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 52c | 820$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.4 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 55c | 813.6$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.58 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 50c | 735$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.5 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 52c | 722.99$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.95 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed Over | 49c | 700$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357 | 179 | 53.1%95 W · 84 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…8afbbacked Over | 49c | 573.94$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.71 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…0e84backed Over | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 259 | 51.4%133 W · 126 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd4…35b5backed Under | 9c | 400$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Under | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 68c | 324.63$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.6 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 51c | 230$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.3 | 249 | 55.8%139 W · 110 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x193e…76ebbacked Under | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2d…76e3backed Under | 12c | 112.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbec4…637fbacked Under | 51c | 81.37$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 531 | 49.3%262 W · 269 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Under | 50c | 79.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2344…6ba3backed Over | 49c | 71.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.55 | 145 | 57.9%84 W · 61 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…bff8backed Under | 51c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +7.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 33c | 58.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Over | 49c | 52.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.94 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 49c | 45.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…12ffbacked Over | 49c | 42.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 53c | 41.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Under | 51c | 40.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 584 | 49.7%290 W · 294 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda60…5133backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…9ae0backed Under | 53c | 31.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 383 | 47%180 W · 203 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x668c…fc62backed Over | 50c | 29.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 52c | 28.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Under | 52c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 68c | 25.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44b0…2a3fbacked Under | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -8.9wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Under | 55c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 655 | 42.9%281 W · 374 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spurs vs. Mavericks: O/U 230.5this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-4.5)Spurs won
- Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 23.5Yes won
- Dylan Harper: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Dylan Harper: Points O/U 9.5No won
- Dylan Harper: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 9.5Yes won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-6.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-7.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-8.5)Spurs won
- Spurs vs. MavericksSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Mavericks: O/U 223.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Mavericks: O/U 224.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Mavericks: O/U 225.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Mavericks: O/U 226.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Mavericks: O/U 228.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Mavericks: O/U 229.5Over won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 22.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.