TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spurs vs. Mavericks: O/U 223.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,082
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,610

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,082 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xabf5…cfebbacked Over53c2,000$1,060 inWon+$94048054.2%260 W · 220 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under47c1,565$739 inLost-$738.839,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3790…f78fbacked Over59c1,000$590 inWon+$4103043.3%13 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xadb6…9c79backed Under41c1,000$410 inLost-$4101643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Over52c939.59$489 inWon+$4511,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under32c913.69$297 inLost-$296.913,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Under40c776.82$309 inLost-$309.141,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafb8…505cbacked Under49c480$235 inLost-$235.23435.3%12 W · 22 L-3.7wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-27.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0b2c…dac5backed Over67c477.61$320 inWon+$157.6142348.5%205 W · 218 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc22…6b74backed Over68c441.18$300 inWon+$141.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under41c319.61$131 inLost-$130.894,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdad…9eaebacked Under44c150$66 inLost-$6624428.7%70 W · 174 L-22.4wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-30.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xef2e…8d89backed Under44c113.64$50 inLost-$5033442.8%143 W · 191 L-17.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-13%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x41a3…017dbacked Over66c75.76$50 inWon+$25.7632952.9%174 W · 155 L-11.7wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe726…958ebacked Over66c75.76$50 inWon+$25.762846.4%13 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b3a…1440backed Under38c63$24 inLost-$24.176541.5%27 W · 38 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-17.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc869…bc8dbacked Over68c51.21$35 inWon+$16.219642.7%41 W · 55 L-9.4wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-20.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe315…3911backed Over61c47.42$29 inWon+$18.6757657.8%333 W · 243 L+13.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Under42c44.28$19 inLost-$18.752,90238.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L-51.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over74c39$29 inWon+$10.058,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7e7…fef1backed Over54c37.92$21 inWon+$17.319046.7%42 W · 48 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9cfd…c05fbacked Under35c35.99$13 inLost-$12.64734%16 W · 31 L-5.9wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-27%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Under33c35.84$12 inLost-$11.861,13217%192 W · 940 L+2.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0a0…d84fbacked Over53c33.33$18 inWon+$15.585851.7%30 W · 28 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7f7…06c5backed Under37c30.52$11 inLost-$11.2917750.8%90 W · 87 L+0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9a7…b64dbacked Over66c30.3$20 inWon+$10.313953.2%74 W · 65 L-7.1wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Over57c26.56$15 inWon+$11.4295047.2%448 W · 502 L-28.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Over59c26.14$15 inWon+$10.7219051.6%98 W · 92 L+0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5e8…3a5dbacked Over63c25.4$16 inWon+$9.454854.2%297 W · 251 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x033f…b8cabacked Over67c22.79$15 inWon+$7.5213352.6%70 W · 63 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d89…e466backed Over64c20.06$13 inWon+$7.226241.9%26 W · 36 L-5.9wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-22.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa68d…e03bbacked Over51c20$10 inWon+$9.85747.4%27 W · 30 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-18.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0ddf…7441backed Over65c19.12$12 inWon+$6.696342.9%27 W · 36 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b54…ea13backed Over68c19.12$13 inWon+$6.1237959.4%225 W · 154 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e7d…9a53backed Over65c16.92$11 inWon+$5.924445.5%20 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.