TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spurs vs. Mavericks: O/U 224.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,362
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,450

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,362 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4408…1b6abacked Under45c5,388$2,425 inLost-$2,424.577653.9%41 W · 35 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+17.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over55c2,153$1,184 inWon+$968.894,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Over50c2,000$1,000 inWon+$1,00048054.2%260 W · 220 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x253d…aa62backed Over55c1,799$989 inWon+$809.5558347%274 W · 309 L-12.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b15…fa73backed Under51c1,581$805 inLost-$804.778651.2%44 W · 42 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e1e…bb68backed Over56c892.27$500 inWon+$392.279556.8%54 W · 41 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbca…b7b7backed Over56c847$474 inWon+$372.6825049.2%123 W · 127 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over51c761.89$387 inWon+$375.369,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x825a…9f6fbacked Under50c752$376 inLost-$3761850%9 W · 9 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe268…0573backed Over51c752$384 inWon+$368.481546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Under48c628.78$299 inLost-$299.191,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over52c594.34$310 inWon+$284.342,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x42ac…7b70backed Under45c570.07$257 inLost-$256.531338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Over55c545.45$300 inWon+$245.451,15747.9%554 W · 603 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f9b…9d7dbacked Over56c446.43$250 inWon+$196.43683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.31per pick53cpaid+58.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0c94…a43bbacked Over55c370.24$204 inWon+$166.6151146.6%238 W · 273 L-13.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa42a…d91fbacked Over55c352.73$194 inWon+$158.7362347.5%296 W · 327 L-17.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x128a…a1b0backed Under50c200$100 inLost-$1005339.6%21 W · 32 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid+0.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under49c157.79$77 inLost-$76.623,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over55c157$86 inWon+$70.598,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under42c109.28$45 inLost-$45.354,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4328…11d2backed Under40c100$40 inLost-$4038740.3%156 W · 231 L+0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under34c98.12$34 inLost-$33.683,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84d9…76dbbacked Under51c98.04$50 inLost-$505147.1%24 W · 27 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Under45c91.74$41 inLost-$40.952,90238.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L-51.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over60c62$37 inWon+$24.82,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b3a…1440backed Under41c57$24 inLost-$23.566541.5%27 W · 38 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-17.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe315…3911backed Over58c50.29$29 inWon+$21.1457657.8%333 W · 243 L+13.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafb8…505cbacked Over52c45$23 inWon+$21.63435.3%12 W · 22 L-3.7wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-27.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Over55c40.74$22 inWon+$18.3363447.5%301 W · 333 L-19.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x02e7…2519backed Over64c40$26 inWon+$14.44540%18 W · 27 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11f2…a7a0backed Under42c30$13 inLost-$12.7419050.5%96 W · 94 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Under47c30$14 inLost-$14.13,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Under50c29.2$15 inLost-$14.695047.2%448 W · 502 L-28.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf628…ba6fbacked Under40c28.38$11 inLost-$11.468440.5%34 W · 50 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-11.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Over55c27.45$15 inWon+$12.319051.6%98 W · 92 L+0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.