NBA · resolved market
Spurs vs. Mavericks: O/U 226.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3406b12856f397d5b00ab4d83390acdba77e04f48459d9271d428e8dacadb6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,375
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,920
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,375 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd3fa…a26cbacked Over | 54c | 40,000$21,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,399.99 | 245 | 49%120 W · 125 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Under | 46c | 18,349$8,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,440.69 | 566 | 46.5%263 W · 303 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 46c | 12,233$5,627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,627.11 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 56c | 5,706$3,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,512.24 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9201…e578backed Under | 46c | 3,507$1,613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,613.23 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Under | 43c | 3,170$1,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,363 | 316 | 44.6%141 W · 175 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 46c | 2,174$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa63c…27a4backed Under | 46c | 1,880$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$865 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -25%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 46c | 1,876$863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 1,010$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.37 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 44c | 855.61$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.29 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 54c | 561.04$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.64 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…8835backed Over | 59c | 508.46$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.47 | 134 | 64.2%86 W · 48 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…85a2backed Under | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 323 | 47.1%152 W · 171 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed Over | 56c | 471.43$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.43 | 254 | 52.8%134 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 40c | 469.5$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.8 | 545 | 39.6%216 W · 329 L | -28.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd4…35b5backed Under | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba0d…9a6ebacked Under | 46c | 150.4$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.18 | 147 | 42.2%62 W · 85 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 46c | 125.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.96 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcd…355abacked Under | 42c | 123.9$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.04 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -9.9wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Under | 47c | 103.71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.71 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 244 | 28.7%70 W · 174 L | -22.4wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97f6…66e2backed Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 201 | 49.8%100 W · 101 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 49c | 77.79$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Over | 54c | 75.21$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 44c | 60.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Under | 41c | 53.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 435 | 43.4%189 W · 246 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Under | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 41c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf06e…26a7backed Over | 61c | 39.26$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Under | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -16.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 42c | 34.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…fbd1backed Under | 44c | 32.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e27…acccbacked Over | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e7…ab94backed Under | 53c | 28.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94e5…52bebacked Over | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spurs vs. Mavericks: O/U 226.5this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-4.5)Spurs won
- Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 23.5Yes won
- Dylan Harper: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Dylan Harper: Points O/U 9.5No won
- Dylan Harper: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 9.5Yes won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-6.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-7.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-8.5)Spurs won
- Spurs vs. MavericksSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Mavericks: O/U 223.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Mavericks: O/U 224.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Mavericks: O/U 225.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Mavericks: O/U 228.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Mavericks: O/U 229.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Mavericks: O/U 230.5Over won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 22.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.