NBA · resolved market
Josh Hart: Points O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x294474e5e521a8abe4449edb7e41cb45a89a59edc095c217ceddd35da4c55ea4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,429
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,460
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,429 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0c20…42a1backed Yes | 37c | 1,010$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.54 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed No | 62c | 999.99$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked Yes | 38c | 553.1$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.92 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked No | 58c | 505$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.85 | 392 | 65.1%255 W · 137 L | +31.0wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff8…8a76backed Yes | 42c | 500$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 137 | 51.1%70 W · 67 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 64c | 300$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 560 | 50.4%282 W · 278 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…b331backed No | 63c | 249.85$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.4 | 398 | 64.3%256 W · 142 L | +33.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7200…9299backed No | 60c | 127.26$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.76 | 369 | 54.7%202 W · 167 L | +28.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3395…698fbacked Yes | 41c | 81.16$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…f93fbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -6.7wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Yes | 41c | 48.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 59c | 36.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 335 | 56.7%190 W · 145 L | +26.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a7…40f7backed No | 63c | 23.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +7.0wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Josh Hart: Points O/U 11.5this page
- Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5No won
- Jalen Johnson: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Josh Hart: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Knicks vs. HawksKnicks won
- Knicks vs. Hawks: 1H MoneylineKnicks won
- Knicks vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 213.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 214.5Over won
- OG Anunoby: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Spread: Knicks (-1.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-2.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-3.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-6.5)Knicks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.