NBA · resolved market
Josh Hart: Assists O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37f85ce0fae45062478342cceadf49208eb4b48271c1c419959f26372fa1b950
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,819
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,807
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,819 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked No | 57c | 653.22$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.22 | 392 | 65.1%255 W · 137 L | +31.0wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff8…8a76backed Yes | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 137 | 51.1%70 W · 67 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Yes | 37c | 264.47$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.19 | 205 | 58.5%120 W · 85 L | +19.6wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 57c | 259.99$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.79 | 560 | 50.4%282 W · 278 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…b331backed No | 63c | 251.86$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.57 | 398 | 64.3%256 W · 142 L | +33.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e85…788bbacked Yes | 44c | 239.86$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.36 | 156 | 51.9%81 W · 75 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0cef…9d08backed Yes | 48c | 224.59$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 42c | 214.57$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.23 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…e573backed No | 53c | 150$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3395…698fbacked Yes | 43c | 76.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…f93fbacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -6.7wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7200…9299backed No | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 369 | 54.7%202 W · 167 L | +28.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f08…d224backed Yes | 45c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -6.8wins | -0.22per pick | 48cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 335 | 56.7%190 W · 145 L | +26.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed No | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 498 | 52.6%262 W · 236 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a7…40f7backed No | 65c | 23.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +7.0wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Josh Hart: Assists O/U 4.5this page
- Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5No won
- Jalen Johnson: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Josh Hart: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Knicks vs. HawksKnicks won
- Knicks vs. Hawks: 1H MoneylineKnicks won
- Knicks vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 213.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 214.5Over won
- OG Anunoby: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Spread: Knicks (-1.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-2.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-3.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-6.5)Knicks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.