TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,653
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,370

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,653 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6868…5198backed Yes36c1,260$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$808.421,40127.3%383 W · 1,018 L+69.5wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes31c600.51$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.0710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f92…2c2dbacked Yes34c451.9$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.44520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-40.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked No23c392.57$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.1374926.7%200 W · 549 L-20.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc109…450bbacked No61c300$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1834035%14 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f44…ace3backed No60c300$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1806660.6%40 W · 26 L+11.9wins+0.18per pick43cpaid+52.7%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x0249…5b4bbacked Yes29c285.83$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.944847.9%23 W · 25 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes58c260$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.527129.2%79 W · 192 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b18…b5eebacked Yes29c257.96$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.965437%20 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes32c256.06$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.1345540%182 W · 273 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes32c227.19$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.996,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No8c223.91$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.746,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No18c210.43$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.974,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x497b…a32abacked Yes36c199.38$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.3821633.8%73 W · 143 L-0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1aa2…0484backed No14c174.22$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1516129.2%47 W · 114 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No62c164.95$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.891,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No38c162.52$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.6312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No69c160$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.253,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d09…143fbacked Yes78c157.58$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.2228829.5%85 W · 203 L+32.9wins+0.11per pick18cpaid+101.6%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No46c157$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.535,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked No72c138.84$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10072952.4%382 W · 347 L+34.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No68c138.17$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.4212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5470…0af7backed No75c133.42$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10032872%236 W · 92 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No64c130.21$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.197,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes69c126.97$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.993,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes32c123.7$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.742,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes26c114.77$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.7517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes32c107.37$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.171,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No74c107$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.1192678.2%724 W · 202 L+51.2wins+0.06per pick73cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No77c100.64$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.1367158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8a1…1d37backed No76c100$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.7532041.9%134 W · 186 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fe5…4745backed Yes36c100$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.518629.6%55 W · 131 L-15.3wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-22.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No42c98.2$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.242,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No67c98$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.622,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes25c97.37$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.954,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes37c90.5$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.2985330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No45c90.01$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.324,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes44c83$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.2623951%122 W · 117 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No70c77.33$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.2265965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf143…b143backed Yes71c76.34$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.8511069.1%76 W · 34 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d59…fefebacked No65c75.87$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.95666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick71cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No69c75.61$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.343,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…6983backed Yes25c75.08$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.0187437.3%326 W · 548 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No69c75$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.783,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No70c69.99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.991,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No67c68.99$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.229,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5948…2d49backed No23c66.51$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155715.8%9 W · 48 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-31%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No60c51.92$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0598160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No70c50.57$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.488650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x073e…453fbacked No67c50$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.54537.8%17 W · 28 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes36c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3245253.3%241 W · 211 L-1.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50b1…0793backed No65c49.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4943663.5%277 W · 159 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed Yes30c49.91$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.0843848.6%213 W · 225 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5754…cefbbacked No73c48.98$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.81050%5 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes45c46.03$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.512,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a7c…d7b8backed Yes36c45$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.9522550.7%114 W · 111 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes39c44.32$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.212,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea21…f753backed Yes52c44.16$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.223668.2%161 W · 75 L+18.8wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes25c43.63$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.532,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes33c43.2$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.984,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ecc…c745backed No47c41.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7317947.5%85 W · 94 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes32c39.5$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.972,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes68c38$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.122,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x18dc…5e90backed Yes30c36.17$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.159846.9%46 W · 52 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes32c36.16$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.595,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes33c35.35$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.532,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd615…ae32backed Yes30c35$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.6533962.8%213 W · 126 L+40.8wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+17.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8882…03fbbacked Yes33c34.95$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5551733.3%172 W · 345 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70c4…1008backed No66c31.92$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0733350.2%167 W · 166 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No67c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.11,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes50c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1537532.8%123 W · 252 L+36.4wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+109.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x22a4…13e5backed No75c25$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.758543.5%37 W · 48 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7b8…d8cebacked No70c21.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155455.6%30 W · 24 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No67c21$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0758358%338 W · 245 L-2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4264…1706backed Yes75c20.91$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.3140871.8%293 W · 115 L-0.8wins0.00per pick72cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No60c20.31$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1961752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd65…c0b1backed No75c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159162.6%57 W · 34 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No74c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.72,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa012…2af7backed No67c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.46061.7%37 W · 23 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No70c16.69$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.681,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9791…a14abacked Yes71c16.27$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.7919461.9%120 W · 74 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick63cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7024…254cbacked Yes80c15.75$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.15366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No74c15.43$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.421,08855.5%604 W · 484 L-27.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc9a…40a6backed Yes72c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.152100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50b0…7dc5backed No70c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.59360.2%56 W · 37 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.