Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b9cf9ce729cf039b6bca70d141a8a4bad12f8b3b9470e9f21cdaf6e1d42643c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,018
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,488
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,018 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 27c | 942.48$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.73 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 538.14$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.61 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5331…3672backed No | 76c | 460.1$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.34 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 12c | 333.4$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ef…0958backed Yes | 33c | 291.76$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.7 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b18…b5eebacked Yes | 23c | 251.67$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 230$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.15 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 28c | 227.19$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.55 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 80c | 226$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.28 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 22c | 205.55$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.38 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…7f19backed Yes | 9c | 163.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 157$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 26c | 136.14$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 27c | 131.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 10c | 127.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…1cefbacked Yes | 22c | 126.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…e169backed Yes | 37c | 124$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 18c | 114.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 66c | 110$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1128…f7edbacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 17c | 86.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 43c | 81.36$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 54c | 77.73$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4978…ea9abacked Yes | 29c | 77.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 72c | 77.33$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 75.61$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 74c | 75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 53c | 71.75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.98 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 69c | 69.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 65.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 31c | 65.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed Yes | 17c | 65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 20c | 64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked Yes | 26c | 63.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Yes | 26c | 63.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8473…5511backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4624…d4bfbacked Yes | 35c | 59.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 63c | 59.37$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 74c | 58.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 71c | 57.79$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 65c | 50.57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 48.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 46.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 70c | 45.28$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed Yes | 27c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed Yes | 27c | 44.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 78c | 44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa523…d789backed Yes | 27c | 41.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 24c | 41.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed Yes | 26c | 40.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 92 | 33.7%31 W · 61 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…0710backed No | 76c | 36.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 38c | 35.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 31.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 73c | 29.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 64c | 29.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 37c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3b…2bf8backed Yes | 42c | 28.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -5.0wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 64c | 21.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 61c | 18.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 69c | 16.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.