NFL · resolved market
Bears vs. Chiefs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2afe015aa4605ed818e891d38d423ed0d6b4b40fa3b724749a3d663363c980ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bears of Bears , Chiefs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,072
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $90,614
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,072 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Bears | 27c | 8,591$2,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,301.17 | 195 | 51.3%100 W · 95 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad1…27b2backed Chiefs | 51c | 6,440$3,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,299.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Chiefs | 80c | 5,538$4,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,430.4 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Bears | 14c | 3,869$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,315.12 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Bears | 49c | 3,428$1,677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,750.45 | 318 | 48.1%153 W · 165 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Chiefs | 44c | 3,000$1,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,318 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a61…b560backed Chiefs | 77c | 2,336$1,795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,794.75 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61bf…647ebacked Bears | 56c | 1,711$958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.84 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x197f…dc8dbacked Bears | 16c | 1,618$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,352.02 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf68…3fdebacked Bears | 31c | 1,520$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,044.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9700…0e70backed Bears | 48c | 1,350$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…e0cbbacked Bears | 25c | 1,204$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$903.76 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11c1…7fe5backed Bears | 50c | 1,054$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.76 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9599…be88backed Chiefs | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf950…81d1backed Bears | 5c | 853.47$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 5cpaid | +860.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Chiefs | 66c | 778.48$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.24 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Bears | 19c | 743$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.99 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Chiefs | 50c | 668.49$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.31 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Bears | 57c | 525.91$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.14 | 158 | 51.9%82 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Bears | 49c | 464.62$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.96 | 133 | 35.3%47 W · 86 L | -9.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Bears | 55c | 450$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.07 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee1d…7a12backed Chiefs | 47c | 446.41$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.5 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Bears | 52c | 405.55$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.66 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Chiefs | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Chiefs | 78c | 385.62$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 107 | 63.6%68 W · 39 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Bears | 20c | 377$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.68 | 281 | 51.6%145 W · 136 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Bears | 53c | 365.55$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.22 | 320 | 50.9%163 W · 157 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82c6…2e59backed Chiefs | 78c | 335$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Chiefs | 47c | 334$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.56 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Bears | 6c | 314.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.29 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Chiefs | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed Bears | 15c | 257.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.44 | 145 | 37.2%54 W · 91 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Bears | 56c | 227.99$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.32 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Chiefs | 42c | 224.14$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.14 | 106 | 24.5%26 W · 80 L | -12.6wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Bears | 49c | 204.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.97 | 175 | 58.9%103 W · 72 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Bears | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 384 | 59.9%230 W · 154 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cbe…fce9backed Chiefs | 44c | 188.89$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.11 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdd…742dbacked Bears | 13c | 174.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +291.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef3c…f731backed Bears | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -6.1wins | -0.23per pick | 66cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Bears | 18c | 162.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.26 | 310 | 56.8%176 W · 134 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf41f…e827backed Bears | 41c | 153.09$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.92 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa974…ef79backed Bears | 47c | 144.26$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.46 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7990…c870backed Bears | 55c | 137.36$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.81 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Chiefs | 44c | 130.59$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.46 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Chiefs | 50c | 128.27$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.67 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Bears | 57c | 116$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.88 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Bears | 46c | 111.72$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.33 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…0a4cbacked Chiefs | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3095…8e0ebacked Bears | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Bears | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.3 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…8507backed Chiefs | 53c | 94.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Bears | 20c | 80$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.65 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Bears | 52c | 75.65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.36 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x896b…0a51backed Chiefs | 53c | 71.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91bc…8facbacked Chiefs | 53c | 69.17$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 47 | 72.3%34 W · 13 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Chiefs | 42c | 64.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Chiefs | 54c | 63.24$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5555…d3d0backed Chiefs | 53c | 61.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Chiefs | 49c | 60.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2838…32bbbacked Chiefs | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 148 | 60.8%90 W · 58 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x384a…39c0backed Chiefs | 63c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Bears | 59c | 59.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Chiefs | 43c | 59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…b172backed Chiefs | 53c | 54.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked Bears | 46c | 53.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Bears | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -6.6wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Bears | 48c | 42.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee4…b575backed Bears | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Bears | 49c | 41.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 368 | 26.9%99 W · 269 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x605a…c6debacked Chiefs | 78c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…7b6ebacked Bears | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 170 | 60.6%103 W · 67 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Chiefs | 54c | 37.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Bears | 50c | 36.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2c…4ae8backed Bears | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x439a…e4e4backed Chiefs | 52c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ef…0b77backed Bears | 47c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8666…a368backed Chiefs | 43c | 30.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.31per pick | 38cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x282f…ac8dbacked Bears | 46c | 28.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95de…42d5backed Bears | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Bears | 48c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 207 | 60.9%126 W · 81 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7552…0f46backed Bears | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bears vs. Chiefs this page
- Bears vs. Chiefs: O/U 42.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.