Mls · resolved market
Will Los Angeles Galaxy vs. San Jose Earthquakes end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2aff9506d15076249acdd008602119e13cf5edec772ebaf45661aa7c282f9583
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,891
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,156
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,891 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 78c | 2,698$2,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.56 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed No | 76c | 2,065$1,571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.94 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -22%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Yes | 22c | 1,600$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 74c | 1,545$1,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.29 | 229 | 46.7%107 W · 122 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 22c | 1,380$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.6 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 27c | 1,250$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.84 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed Yes | 33c | 1,125$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.06 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | -11.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Yes | 23c | 840.54$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.32 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 67c | 632.98$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.21 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x999a…9a25backed No | 76c | 575.13$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.18 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 77c | 574.44$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.23 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 53c | 568.38$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 196 | 42.9%84 W · 112 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8557…6f88backed Yes | 55c | 549.03$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 59c | 517.97$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.99 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.21per pick | 47cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5b…8abcbacked Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd0…b719backed Yes | 23c | 411.73$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.73 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 45c | 377.15$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.43 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 77c | 375.39$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.19 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9df…210ebacked Yes | 52c | 371.15$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 38c | 366.8$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.25 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed No | 73c | 306$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.14 | 97 | 26.8%26 W · 71 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55b9…a814backed No | 47c | 301.38$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.73 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32bf…ec60backed Yes | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 52c | 293.39$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.46 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee3e…f651backed Yes | 24c | 279.05$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Yes | 27c | 240$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 196 | 45.9%90 W · 106 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaca…f5d5backed No | 77c | 234$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.82 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 78c | 231.82$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8709…7d3dbacked Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 22c | 181.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf762…d55fbacked No | 70c | 179.27$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.78 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed Yes | 22c | 175.32$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.63 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 22c | 146.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Yes | 22c | 138$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 529 | 23.8%126 W · 403 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05b2…953bbacked No | 45c | 123$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.65 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…3353backed Yes | 26c | 121.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe01b…fa88backed Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed No | 51c | 109$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.25 | 172 | 44.8%77 W · 95 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 31c | 105.05$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.57 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfec…774abacked Yes | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 64c | 99.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.61 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed No | 47c | 99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.47 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +7.6wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 75c | 92$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 78c | 88.78$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed No | 76c | 83.26$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Yes | 36c | 74.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 196 | 41.3%81 W · 115 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc800…4117backed No | 78c | 71$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Yes | 41c | 52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ab…0dc8backed Yes | 29c | 51.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed No | 53c | 48.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 79c | 45.45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04e5…10dcbacked Yes | 28c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 53c | 42.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 78c | 40.43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…d12ebacked Yes | 30c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa797…dedebacked Yes | 30c | 36.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 146 | 57.5%84 W · 62 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Yes | 30c | 36.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 256 | 52.3%134 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed No | 78c | 31.12$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked No | 49c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked No | 51c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked No | 74c | 19.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Los Angeles Galaxy vs. San Jose Earthquakes end in a draw?this page
- Will Los Angeles Galaxy win on 2026-08-19?Yes won
- Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-08-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.